Republican Ides of March Tuesday results thread (N. Marianas start at 4:30am ET)

[GLPman]

Trump sounds incoherent right now always.

Fixed.

The man is insane.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Hillary team have room for a scared Republican who is worried about a President TRUMP?

[Why]

NC - ALL OF Cruz's counties there are over 90% reported already.

He might win Guilford, he has been gaining there a little but it is not going to be nearly enough.

[Seriously?]

McDonald County, MO just went for Trump.  It's the farthest SW in the state. That's extremely bad news for Cruz.

Right now, Trump leads in 5 CDs, Cruz leads in 2 (and probably has CD7 locked up) and 1 has no votes in.

Unlike every other state, CDs in MO are worth 5 delegates, with the winner of the state getting 12 additional delegates.

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/MO-R

[cinyc]

McDonald County, MO just went for Trump.  It's the farthest SW in the state. That's extremely bad news for Cruz.

By 9 votes. 

McDonald County, MO more an extension of Benton County Arkansas, which Rubio won, than the rest of SW Missouri.

[Maxwell]

Losing North Carolina is understandable. Losing Missouri? that's rough.

[Fargobison]

Those campaign stops in OH and FL could have been useful in other places for Cruz. I just don't get his strategy at times.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Trump sounds incoherent right now always.

Fixed.

The man is insane.

[Likely Voter]

The man who pissed away $120M running the Jeb Bush super pac is on MSNBC now and started out by saying "I need a drink"

[IceSpear]

Hillary team have room for a scared Republican who is worried about a President TRUMP?

We welcome everyone.

[Joe Biden 2020]

I checked Pennsylvania for Kasich and if he plans to camp out there, he has basically given up.  It doesn't vote until April 26, I think and it only has 17 delegates according to CNN unless that's a typo.  He really needs to compete in every state the rest of the way, I think not just one insignificant state a month.

[Vosem]

I checked Pennsylvania for Kasich and if he plans to camp out there, he has basically given up.  It doesn't vote until April 26, I think and it only has 17 delegates according to CNN unless that's a typo.  He really needs to compete in every state the rest of the way, I think not just one insignificant state a month.

Pennsylvania uses the Illinois system, but delegates aren't associated on the ballot with any candidate. Thus, the overwhelming majority will enter the convention as uncommitted.

[Seriously?]

I checked Pennsylvania for Kasich and if he plans to camp out there, he has basically given up.  It doesn't vote until April 26, I think and it only has 17 delegates according to CNN unless that's a typo.  He really needs to compete in every state the rest of the way, I think not just one insignificant state a month.

PA is an unusual animal. It's direct elect of delegates in the CDs, but there's a question as to how exactly bound those delegates are, even if a candidate wins in the district.

Plus, Kasich may get kicked off of the ballot there. A Rubio supporter brought suit because Kasich didn't have enough signatures. Kasich admitted that, but claimed the suit was brought too late. So who knows what ends up happening, especially since Rubio has now "suspended" his campaign.

[Mike Thick]

Hillary team have room for a scared Republican who is worried about a President TRUMP?

We welcome everyone.

Good to know, although (because I don't have to vote tactically in CA) I'll probably support Johnson.

[jimrtex]

That doesn't sound like good news for Hillary!

Agreed, while they probably aren't here African American base, they are probably upper income liberal whites that she needs to carry to win the state.

Cleveland has a really huge Croatian and other Slavic population that may want to vote for Kasich. It could actually be bad for Sanders.

[The Free North]

Trump may only win about half of the CDs in IL based on these results

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2016/by_state/IL_Delegates_0315.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

Both Kasich and Cruz take away from him.

[sportydude]

It finally happened!
Kasich is the first "red" GOP candidate to win a primary state since 1996!!!

[muon2]

Kasich now has two delegates leading in IL-10 along with 3 in IL-7 and 2 in IL-9. One in IL-6 is a possibility, too (out of third by 24 votes).

Cruz has a lead with 2 delegates in IL-13, 1 in IL-15, 1 in IL-16, 2 in IL-17 and all three in IL-18.

[Why]

Cruz has mounted a fabulous comeback in Madison County, NC to win the county.

[The Free North]

Kasich now has two delegates leading in IL-10 along with 3 in IL-7 and 2 in IL-9. One in IL-6 is a possibility, too (out of third by 24 votes).

Cruz has a lead with 2 delegates in IL-13, 1 in IL-15, 1 in IL-16, 2 in IL-17 and all three in IL-18.

Love it muon.


According to 538, Trump needs to SWEEP EVERY CD in IL/MO to just barely stay on track for the nomination. It looks likely he will only win 10/18 CDs in IL and may not even win MO.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/march-15-primaries-ohio-florida-results-presidential-election-2016/?#livepress-update-17473553

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Kasich now has two delegates leading in IL-10 along with 3 in IL-7 and 2 in IL-9. One in IL-6 is a possibility, too (out of third by 24 votes).

Cruz has a lead with 2 delegates in IL-13, 1 in IL-15, 1 in IL-16, 2 in IL-17 and all three in IL-18.

I hate the fact that most of my state's delegates are going to the two candidates I dislike the most.

At least my district voted right. Way to go, IL-18.

[Why]

Practically does Trump even have to get 1237 to win on the first ballot. There will be a number of unpledged delegates from various places going to the convention. I don't know how many but if he is over 1150 could they be enough to give him a win anyway?

[Joe Biden 2020]

Cruz better not win Missouri...

[The Free North]

Cruz is closing nicely in MO.

Make no mistake, should Trump lose more than 1 CD in IL or lose MO, we are on the path to a brokered convention.

[The Free North]

Practically does Trump even have to get 1237 to win on the first ballot. There will be a number of unpledged delegates from various places going to the convention. I don't know how many but if he is over 1150 could they be enough to give him a win anyway?

Well the only candidate with any delegates is Rubio and his supporters are probably not going to back Trump if Cruz and Kasich are still in the race. The point being, it probably hurts him rather than helps him.