Republican Ides of March Tuesday results thread (N. Marianas start at 4:30am ET)

[Vosem]

St Louis is starting to come in and Trump is maintaining his lead.  I think we may be getting closer to a narrow call for Trump.

If the pattern from other southern states (and Kansas City) is followed, late precincts should be better for Cruz than earlier ones, though I'll concede it doesn't look too good.

[TarHeelDem]

The rednecks will be out in DROVES for Trump in the fall, and if I want to stop Trump in the fall, got no choice but to back Clinton at this point since I did my best to stop Trump here by voting Rubio

Welcome to the team! Glad to have you.

[win win]

DAVID WASSERMAN 11:20 PM
Here’s my gut takeaway from tonight’s primaries: It’s more difficult to see how Trump DOESN’T get to 1,237 delegates from here. He’s beating Cruz in red states, and he’s likely to beat Kasich in future blue states. Most of the delegates at stake from here on out will come from winner-take-all states. Whether #NeverTrump forces realize it or not, they are losing.

[Famous Mortimer]

Has it already been pointed out, Donald Trump won every county in Florida except Miami-Dade County, the exact same result George Wallace had in the 1972 Democratic primary?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

What's the threshold for getting at-large delegates in Missouri? It's clear no one's getting the necessary majority to get all of Missouri unless there's some weird cascade result from candidates not meeting the threshold not having their votes count for the WTA rule, but I was wondering if Kasich has a chance at picking up a delegate. Probably not, as even a 10% threshold would keep him out.

[Ljube]

The rednecks will be out in DROVES for Trump in the fall, and if I want to stop Trump in the fall, got no choice but to back Clinton at this point since I did my best to stop Trump here by voting Rubio

You don't need to stop TRUMP. You need to stop Hillary Clinton. Think about that.

[Vosem]

What's the threshold for getting at-large delegates in Missouri? It's clear no one's getting the necessary majority to get all of Missouri unless there's some weird cascade result from candidates not meeting the threshold not having their votes count for the WTA rule, but I was wondering if Kasich has a chance at picking up a delegate. Probably not, as even a 10% threshold would keep him out.

The statewide delegates (there are 12) are WTA.

The rednecks will be out in DROVES for Trump in the fall, and if I want to stop Trump in the fall, got no choice but to back Clinton at this point since I did my best to stop Trump here by voting Rubio

You don't need to stop TRUMP. You need to stop Hillary Clinton. Think about that.

The first is necessary to achieve the second.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Spoke with my "boss" who I "worked" for at my precinct today: Trump won my precinct In Daytona Beach, Volusia COunty with 60% to Cruz's 30%, Rubio 4%, Kasich 2% Others 4%, Dems went: Clinton 78%, Sanders 16% O'Malley 6%

If anyone was interested that is

[Ljube]

The rednecks will be out in DROVES for Trump in the fall, and if I want to stop Trump in the fall, got no choice but to back Clinton at this point since I did my best to stop Trump here by voting Rubio

You don't need to stop TRUMP. You need to stop Hillary Clinton. Think about that.

The first is necessary to achieve the second.

He was considering voting for Hillary in the general. That's a travesty and betrayal of his own conservative ideology.

[Why]

What's the threshold for getting at-large delegates in Missouri? It's clear no one's getting the necessary majority to get all of Missouri unless there's some weird cascade result from candidates not meeting the threshold not having their votes count for the WTA rule, but I was wondering if Kasich has a chance at picking up a delegate. Probably not, as even a 10% threshold would keep him out.

State wide delegates are winner takes all.

[Joe Biden 2020]

St Louis is starting to come in and Trump is maintaining his lead.  I think we may be getting closer to a narrow call for Trump.

If the pattern from other southern states (and Kansas City) is followed, late precincts should be better for Cruz than earlier ones, though I'll concede it doesn't look too good.

First off, Missouri is not southern, but the only things out now are about 55% of St Louis City, all of Perry County, and a little bit of Jackson County (Kansas City).  Trump has a 3,000 vote lead, so I think his lead, while not safe, is looking better and better.

[Seriously?]

What's the threshold for getting at-large delegates in Missouri? It's clear no one's getting the necessary majority to get all of Missouri unless there's some weird cascade result from candidates not meeting the threshold not having their votes count for the WTA rule, but I was wondering if Kasich has a chance at picking up a delegate. Probably not, as even a 10% threshold would keep him out.

No one is getting to 50% in the state, so
Winner takes the 12 statewide delegates in MO.
The eight CDs give out 5 delegates each to the winner.
According to thegreenpapers, Cruz now leads in CD5 (KC) and CD7. of the other 6 CDs Trump leads in all but CD2, where there are no votes yet. (Their total lags the CNN/NYT and Ace of Spades numbers)

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

The rednecks will be out in DROVES for Trump in the fall, and if I want to stop Trump in the fall, got no choice but to back Clinton at this point since I did my best to stop Trump here by voting Rubio

You don't need to stop TRUMP. You need to stop Hillary Clinton. Think about that.

The first is necessary to achieve the second.

He was considering voting for Hillary in the general. That's a travesty and betrayal of his own conservative ideology.

I'm not a conservative lol.

[Vosem]

St Louis is starting to come in and Trump is maintaining his lead.  I think we may be getting closer to a narrow call for Trump.

If the pattern from other southern states (and Kansas City) is followed, late precincts should be better for Cruz than earlier ones, though I'll concede it doesn't look too good.

First off, Missouri is not southern, but the only things out now are about 55% of St Louis City, all of Perry County, and a little bit of Jackson County (Kansas City).  Trump has a 3,000 vote lead, so I think his lead, while not safe, is looking better and better.

I didn't say it was southern (I think the state is mostly Midwestern, but it's southeastern corner is southern); I said if it follows the pattern from southern states of later precincts generally being better for Cruz than earlier ones, for whatever reason (there's been a theory that _trump tends to win smaller precincts). There's a difference.

Anyway, _trump is favored in MO but his lead in the 3 St. Louis area counties is single digits; Cruz could well be stronger in the outlying areas. Or not. We'll see.

[Fargobison]

The rednecks will be out in DROVES for Trump in the fall, and if I want to stop Trump in the fall, got no choice but to back Clinton at this point since I did my best to stop Trump here by voting Rubio

You don't need to stop TRUMP. You need to stop Hillary Clinton. Think about that.

The first is necessary to achieve the second.

He was considering voting for Hillary in the general. That's a travesty and betrayal of his own conservative ideology.

Voting for Trump is the exact same thing. HRC or 3rd party for me.

[Why]

I think Kasich did well in the latest lot of precincts reporting in St Louis County, but Trump is holding his lead despite most of the rest of Boone coming in. Not much room left for Cruz to come back.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

The rednecks will be out in DROVES for Trump in the fall, and if I want to stop Trump in the fall, got no choice but to back Clinton at this point since I did my best to stop Trump here by voting Rubio

You don't need to stop TRUMP. You need to stop Hillary Clinton. Think about that.

The first is necessary to achieve the second.

He was considering voting for Hillary in the general. That's a travesty and betrayal of his own conservative ideology.

Voting for Trump is the exact same thing. HRC or 3rd party for me.

I agree and will be voting Libertarian if Trump is the nominee.

[Ljube]

I'm not a conservative lol.

So, you like Hillary and the Democrats now? You like their policies?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Looks like Kasich and Rubio are the ones gaining from the late vote from Missouri, so TRUMP gets the 12 statewide delegates.

[libertpaulian]

I think Kasich did well in the latest lot of precincts reporting in St Louis County, but Trump is holding his lead despite most of the rest of Boone coming in. Not much room left for Cruz to come back.

77% of Jackson County is in and Trump is keeping it narrow.  He's only behind Cruz by 900-something odd votes.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I'm not a conservative lol.

So, you like Hillary and the Democrats now? You like their policies?

I never WAS a conservative, libertarianism =/= conservatism two totally different ideologies bro. And no, I do not like their policies.

[Why]

I think Kasich did well in the latest lot of precincts reporting in St Louis County, but Trump is holding his lead despite most of the rest of Boone coming in. Not much room left for Cruz to come back.

77% of Jackson County is in and Trump is keeping it narrow.  He's only behind Cruz by 900-something odd votes.

Hard to see the rest going 4000 votes in favour of Cruz which is what is needed.

[Ljube]

I'm not a conservative lol.

So, you like Hillary and the Democrats now? You like their policies?

I never WAS a conservative, libertarianism =/= conservatism two totally different ideologies bro. And no, I do not like their policies.

Then, it's a no brainer for you. You won't vote for Hillary.

[Matty]

I don't think trump fans realize how god damn lucky they are that rubio was still in the race tonight.

Gave trump missouri and NC.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I think Kasich did well in the latest lot of precincts reporting in St Louis County, but Trump is holding his lead despite most of the rest of Boone coming in. Not much room left for Cruz to come back.

77% of Jackson County is in and Trump is keeping it narrow.  He's only behind Cruz by 900-something odd votes.

Hard to see the rest going 4000 votes in favour of Cruz which is what is needed.

Which is why I'm sticking with my prediction of Trump winning, Boone is trending towards Trump a little and a lot of STL is still out