Republican Ides of March Tuesday results thread (N. Marianas start at 4:30am ET)
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  Republican Ides of March Tuesday results thread (N. Marianas start at 4:30am ET)
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Author Topic: Republican Ides of March Tuesday results thread (N. Marianas start at 4:30am ET)  (Read 56074 times)
jimrtex
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« Reply #850 on: March 16, 2016, 12:10:54 AM »

I thought that's why he suspended his campaign but did not withdraw.
If a candidate terminates their campaign, they can't accept campaign contributions.

The FEC doesn't recognize the word "suspend" and doesn't require any special filing.

So "suspend" means "Won't be actively seeking votes, but my pfficial campaign organization will continue to operate."
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Joe Biden 2020
BushOklahoma
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« Reply #851 on: March 16, 2016, 12:11:50 AM »

100% in in Missouri:

Republican Primary

Trump leads by less than 1 point, or 1,636 votes, with 100% reporting.
CANDIDATES   VOTE   PCT.   
Donald J. Trump   381,720   40.8%   
Ted Cruz                   380,084   40.7   
John Kasch             94,430   10.1   
Marco Rubio             56,942   6.1   
Other                     21,781   2.3   
934,957 votes, 100% reporting (3,041 of 3,041 precincts)

I guess CNN is asleep at the wheel.
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TarHeelDem
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« Reply #852 on: March 16, 2016, 12:14:25 AM »

Very odd how Trump and Clinton both won their respective races by about 1600 votes.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #853 on: March 16, 2016, 12:14:45 AM »

Did some math on Ohio:

Kasich won counties Romney won in 2012 by 15.6% (Romney only won them by 9.9%). In addition to that, Kasich also won counties Santorum won in 2012 by 4.4% (Romney lost those by 11.2%). Combined - that shows us why Kasich won by 11 points - Kasich held his ground on more socially conservative, rural areas while dominating in urban areas like Cincinnati, Cleveland, and Columbus.

In addition, turnout experienced a 64% increase from 2012.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #854 on: March 16, 2016, 12:15:17 AM »

100% in in Missouri:

Republican Primary

Trump leads by less than 1 point, or 1,636 votes, with 100% reporting.
CANDIDATES   VOTE   PCT.   
Donald J. Trump   381,720   40.8%   
Ted Cruz                   380,084   40.7   
John Kasch             94,430   10.1   
Marco Rubio             56,942   6.1   
Other                     21,781   2.3   
934,957 votes, 100% reporting (3,041 of 3,041 precincts)

I guess CNN is asleep at the wheel.

CNN doesn't use the apparent winner designation, there might be a recount.
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Joe Biden 2020
BushOklahoma
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« Reply #855 on: March 16, 2016, 12:16:15 AM »

100% in in Missouri:

Republican Primary

Trump leads by less than 1 point, or 1,636 votes, with 100% reporting.
CANDIDATES   VOTE   PCT.   
Donald J. Trump   381,720   40.8%   
Ted Cruz                   380,084   40.7   
John Kasch             94,430   10.1   
Marco Rubio             56,942   6.1   
Other                     21,781   2.3   
934,957 votes, 100% reporting (3,041 of 3,041 precincts)

I guess CNN is asleep at the wheel.

CNN doesn't use the apparent winner designation, there might be a recount.

They've been talking about it all night.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #856 on: March 16, 2016, 12:17:45 AM »

Trump support by county in states that have voted so far (via Patrick Ruffini):


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dax00
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« Reply #857 on: March 16, 2016, 12:20:54 AM »
« Edited: March 16, 2016, 12:36:54 AM by dax00 »

Upon my personal count, I have Trump up in MO-4 by around 1350 votes. Cruz definitely took MO-5 and MO-7.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #858 on: March 16, 2016, 12:21:56 AM »

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LOL!
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Fargobison
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« Reply #859 on: March 16, 2016, 12:26:00 AM »
« Edited: March 16, 2016, 12:31:14 AM by Fargobison »

Wow...
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https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/709973743788015617
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Vosem
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« Reply #860 on: March 16, 2016, 12:27:24 AM »

Some precincts in MO, especially in Jackson County, seem to be conducting recounts of their own accord. trump's margin is about 0.2% right now and he's gained around 100 votes.
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The Free North
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« Reply #861 on: March 16, 2016, 12:27:46 AM »

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LOL!

I believe an arab sounding delegate got beat by 2 Cruz delegates when the other 2 Trump candidates won quite easily.

I closed the tab so I dont remember which CD it was, someone can double check.
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cinyc
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« Reply #862 on: March 16, 2016, 12:30:08 AM »

St. Louis City apparently found more votes, sightly widening Trump's lead:
=
Trump leads by less than 1 point, or 1,726 votes, with 99% reporting.
CANDIDATES   VOTE   PCT.   
 Donald J. Trump   382,093   40.8%   
 Ted Cruz                   380,367   40.6   
 John Kasich             94,533   10.1   
 Marco Rubio             57,006   6.1   
Other                     21,795   2.3   

We're also supposedly missing 2 Jackson County (KC) precincts again.
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Blue3
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« Reply #863 on: March 16, 2016, 12:31:22 AM »

Why do people go to CNN for political news? They're horrible.
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Joe Biden 2020
BushOklahoma
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« Reply #864 on: March 16, 2016, 12:32:55 AM »

So, according to Erc's latest projections, Trump should win 37 delegates from Missouri, 52 from Illinois, and 29 from North Carolina.  This brings his total to 688 which is 549 shy of 1,237.  It is likely that Trump will end March less than 500 delegates away from the nomination if he can pull off Arizona where he is favored.  I'm giving Utah to Cruz since Rubio is out.  He still has a very doable path to the outright nomination and avoiding an open especially with a strong showing in Illinois tonight.
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Joe Biden 2020
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« Reply #865 on: March 16, 2016, 12:33:32 AM »

Why do people go to CNN for political news? They're horrible.

To me, they're the most centrist of the big three cable news.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #866 on: March 16, 2016, 12:33:40 AM »
« Edited: March 16, 2016, 12:36:01 AM by Seriously? »

Is Trump only the apparent winner instead of the projected winner because Cruz will likely request a recount?

Yes, though I doubt a recount can overturn 1636 votes (the final margin) unless there is a large uncounted cache of Cruz votes uncovered somewhere. Still, stranger things have happened. How many CDs did Cruz win in the final estimation? 3, right? (5, 4, and 7)?
It's down to 2 now CD 4 and CD 7, but the only sourcing I can find is lagging by about 100K votes.

Cruz leads CD 4 by about 452 votes, so that could theoretically flip.

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/MO-R
(Scroll down to see the CDs).

It's amazing that basically a < 2,000 margin in a non-WTA state can end up with Trump getting 42 of the 52 delegates.
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Vosem
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« Reply #867 on: March 16, 2016, 12:34:06 AM »

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LOL!

I believe an arab sounding delegate got beat by 2 Cruz delegates when the other 2 Trump candidates won quite easily.

I closed the tab so I dont remember which CD it was, someone can double check.

IL-6:
P. Minch (trump): 35,046
B. Kois (trump): 34,729
P. Brady (Kasich): 32,511

R. Sandack (Kasich): 32,024
A. Del Mar (Kasich): 30,756
N. Fakroddin (trump): 30,305

IL-13:
D. Hartmann (trump): 31,300
J. Kammer (Cruz): 29,932
M. Strang (Cruz): 29,707

N. Kammer (Cruz): 28,002
T. Gauen (trump): 27,770
R. Sadiq (trump): 24,787
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Blue3
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« Reply #868 on: March 16, 2016, 12:35:04 AM »

Why do people go to CNN for political news? They're horrible.

To me, they're the most centrist of the big three cable news.
Centrist doesn't mean honest, or competent.
(Or interesting, for that matter)
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Joe Biden 2020
BushOklahoma
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« Reply #869 on: March 16, 2016, 12:35:09 AM »

We've gone so far into the night that the morning crew on CNN will be taking over on CNN at the top of the hour according to the TV Guide.
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The Free North
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« Reply #870 on: March 16, 2016, 12:35:46 AM »

So, according to Erc's latest projections, Trump should win 37 delegates from Missouri, 52 from Illinois, and 29 from North Carolina.  This brings his total to 688 which is 549 shy of 1,237.  It is likely that Trump will end March less than 500 delegates away from the nomination if he can pull off Arizona where he is favored.  I'm giving Utah to Cruz since Rubio is out.  He still has a very doable path to the outright nomination and avoiding an open especially with a strong showing in Illinois tonight.

538 says he needs to be at 719 to be on track for the nomination by the end of tonight.
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Joe Biden 2020
BushOklahoma
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« Reply #871 on: March 16, 2016, 12:37:17 AM »

Why do people go to CNN for political news? They're horrible.

To me, they're the most centrist of the big three cable news.
Centrist doesn't mean honest, or competent.

I think they're honest and trustworthy.  Let's put it this way.  I'm used to their characters.  I don't think I could get used to the liberal bias of MSNBC or the conservative bias of Fox.
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Vosem
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« Reply #872 on: March 16, 2016, 12:39:26 AM »

So, according to Erc's latest projections, Trump should win 37 delegates from Missouri, 52 from Illinois, and 29 from North Carolina.  This brings his total to 688 which is 549 shy of 1,237.  It is likely that Trump will end March less than 500 delegates away from the nomination if he can pull off Arizona where he is favored.  I'm giving Utah to Cruz since Rubio is out.  He still has a very doable path to the outright nomination and avoiding an open especially with a strong showing in Illinois tonight.

538 says he needs to be at 719 to be on track for the nomination by the end of tonight.

Does 538 have Trump WTA-ing NY and CA?  Because that looks increasingly likely in both states.

Cruz is favored to win California.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #873 on: March 16, 2016, 12:41:03 AM »

So, according to Erc's latest projections, Trump should win 37 delegates from Missouri, 52 from Illinois, and 29 from North Carolina.  This brings his total to 688 which is 549 shy of 1,237.  It is likely that Trump will end March less than 500 delegates away from the nomination if he can pull off Arizona where he is favored.  I'm giving Utah to Cruz since Rubio is out.  He still has a very doable path to the outright nomination and avoiding an open especially with a strong showing in Illinois tonight.

538 says he needs to be at 719 to be on track for the nomination by the end of tonight.

Does 538 have Trump WTA-ing NY and CA?  Because that looks increasingly likely in both states.

Cruz is favored to win California.

UGH, one poll doesn't mean Cruz is favored, we had a new poll that had Trump way up, and it seems more plausible that Trump is head
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Holmes
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« Reply #874 on: March 16, 2016, 12:41:32 AM »

It's too early to be talking about California.
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