Republican Ides of March Tuesday results thread (N. Marianas start at 4:30am ET)

[Joe Biden 2020]

So, according to Erc's latest projections, Trump should win 37 delegates from Missouri, 52 from Illinois, and 29 from North Carolina.  This brings his total to 688 which is 549 shy of 1,237.  It is likely that Trump will end March less than 500 delegates away from the nomination if he can pull off Arizona where he is favored.  I'm giving Utah to Cruz since Rubio is out.  He still has a very doable path to the outright nomination and avoiding an open especially with a strong showing in Illinois tonight.

538 says he needs to be at 719 to be on track for the nomination by the end of tonight.

There's no doubt he's a little behind because of losing Ohio, but it's not impossible for him to catch up especially if he can over perform in April.  He will have to have a really good April in order to get back on track, but this is Trump, every doubter has been proved wrong to date.

[Vosem]

So, according to Erc's latest projections, Trump should win 37 delegates from Missouri, 52 from Illinois, and 29 from North Carolina.  This brings his total to 688 which is 549 shy of 1,237.  It is likely that Trump will end March less than 500 delegates away from the nomination if he can pull off Arizona where he is favored.  I'm giving Utah to Cruz since Rubio is out.  He still has a very doable path to the outright nomination and avoiding an open especially with a strong showing in Illinois tonight.

538 says he needs to be at 719 to be on track for the nomination by the end of tonight.

Does 538 have Trump WTA-ing NY and CA?  Because that looks increasingly likely in both states.

Cruz is favored to win California.

UGH, one poll doesn't mean Cruz is favored, we had a new poll that had Trump way up, and it seems more plausible that Trump is head

One poll had Cruz ahead, the other had _trump narrowly beating Cruz with high undecideds. California Republicans are also exactly the sort to be attracted to Ted Cruz.

[Joe Biden 2020]

It's too early to be talking about California.

Indeed, California is still 3 months away.

[Seriously?]

So, according to Erc's latest projections, Trump should win 37 delegates from Missouri, 52 from Illinois, and 29 from North Carolina.  This brings his total to 688 which is 549 shy of 1,237.  It is likely that Trump will end March less than 500 delegates away from the nomination if he can pull off Arizona where he is favored.  I'm giving Utah to Cruz since Rubio is out.  He still has a very doable path to the outright nomination and avoiding an open especially with a strong showing in Illinois tonight.

538 says he needs to be at 719 to be on track for the nomination by the end of tonight.

If MO stands as is, Trump will be at about 692 +/- 10 delegates, not that far off track.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

So, according to Erc's latest projections, Trump should win 37 delegates from Missouri, 52 from Illinois, and 29 from North Carolina.  This brings his total to 688 which is 549 shy of 1,237.  It is likely that Trump will end March less than 500 delegates away from the nomination if he can pull off Arizona where he is favored.  I'm giving Utah to Cruz since Rubio is out.  He still has a very doable path to the outright nomination and avoiding an open especially with a strong showing in Illinois tonight.

538 says he needs to be at 719 to be on track for the nomination by the end of tonight.

Did 538 take into account that every Republican race has different rules?

[ElectionsGuy]

North Carolina is completely done:

Trump: 458,048 (40.2%)
Cruz: 418,572 (36.8%)
Kasich: 144,272 (12.7%)
Rubio: 87,845 (7.7%)

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

does anyone have info on how the various IL CDs are voting?

[Seriously?]

North Carolina is completely done:

Trump: 458,048 (40.2%)
Cruz: 418,572 (36.8%)
Kasich: 144,272 (12.7%)
Rubio: 87,845 (7.7%)

Greenpapers gave Trump 30 delegates, Cruz 27 delegates, Kasich 9 and Rubio 6. Carson fell under 1%, didn't get to the 1.39% threshold. To get to the number, they deleted other from the calculations.

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/NC-R

[Joe Biden 2020]

Well, folks, it has been fun the past several hours.  I must go onto bed now so I can get up and go about my Wednesday.  I'm going to bed, folks.

[Seriously?]

does anyone have info on how the various IL CDs are voting?

It's direct election of delegates by CD, with the top 3 bound to the candidate of their choice as stated on the ballot.

Trump ended up with 52 delegates (including statewide)
Cruz got 9 delegates
Kasich got 8 delegates

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

does anyone have info on how the various IL CDs are voting?

It's direct election of delegates by CD, with the top 3 bound to the candidate of their choice as stated on the ballot.

Trump ended up with 52 delegates (including statewide)
Cruz got 9 delegates
Kasich got 8 delegates

ah, ok. interesting.   here are the results from AP:
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2016/by_state/IL_Page_0315.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

if you just go by popular vote in the districts (such as for mapping purposes) looks like Kasich is ahead in CDs 7 and 9, and 10 is close between him and Trump.

[jimrtex]

does anyone have info on how the various IL CDs are voting?

It's direct election of delegates by CD, with the top 3 bound to the candidate of their choice as stated on the ballot.

Trump ended up with 52 delegates (including statewide)
Cruz got 9 delegates
Kasich got 8 delegates

Look at CD-13.  Kasich clearly snagged a delegate because Nabi Fakroddin ran 5000 votes behind Paul Minch and Barbara Kois, Trump's other 2 delegates.  I wonder why?

Trump voters were told that the ballot was confusing in order to trick them. They showed they couldn't be fooled by the "Trump" next to Fakroddin's name.

[yourelection]

Summing things up. Rubio's weak showing in Florida ends his campaign. Kasich scores a much needed win in Ohio, but it's a little too-little-to-late. Cruz doesn't score in Missouri and the Trump machine rolls on.

More at: http://www.yourelection.net/2016/03/march-15-primaries/

[Mr. Morden]

OK, so here are the Congressional District delegates in Illinois:

link

cd1: Trump 3
cd2: Trump 3
cd3: Trump 3
cd4: Trump 3
cd5: Trump 3
cd6: Trump 2, Kasich 1
cd7: Kasich 3
cd8: Trump 3
cd9: Kasich 2, Trump 1
cd10: Trump 2, Kasich 1
cd11: Trump 3
cd12: Trump 3
cd13: Cruz 2, Trump 1
cd14: Trump 3
cd15: Trump 2, Cruz 1
cd16: Trump 2, Cruz 1
cd17: Cruz 2, Trump 1
cd18: Cruz 3

Total CD level delegates:
Trump 38
Cruz 9
Kasich 7

[Mr. Morden]

The clearest case where a Trump delegate candidate in Illinois failed to get elected because of their name was in the 6th district:



Why did Trump voters back his delegates who had the last names Minch and Kois, but not someone named “Nabi Fakroddin”?  I’m trying to think of a reason. 

Likewise, Trump delegate candidate Taneequa Tolbert underperformed in CD2 (though still got elected, so it didn’t matter in the end).  And in CD13, Trump delegate candidate Raja Sadiq underperformed, and didn’t make it (though probably would have lost regardless of name in that case).

Why don’t Trump supporters want him to have delegates with last names like Fakroddin and Sadiq? 

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The clearest case where a Trump delegate candidate in Illinois failed to get elected because of their name was in the 6th district:



Why did Trump voters back his delegates who had the last names Minch and Kois, but not someone named “Nabi Fakroddin”?  I’m trying to think of a reason. 

Likewise, Trump delegate candidate Taneequa Tolbert underperformed in CD2 (though still got elected, so it didn’t matter in the end).  And in CD13, Trump delegate candidate Raja Sadiq underperformed, and didn’t make it (though probably would have lost regardless of name in that case).

Why don’t Trump supporters want him to have delegates with last names like Fakroddin and Sadiq? 

It looks like Del Mar underperformed too.

[Mr. Morden]

It's down to 2 now CD 4 and CD 7, but the only sourcing I can find is lagging by about 100K votes.

Cruz leads CD 4 by about 452 votes, so that could theoretically flip.

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/MO-R
(Scroll down to see the CDs).

I scrolled down, but I don't see anywhere there that tells you who is leading in which CD.  What am I missing?

There is some CD level information here:

https://www.sos.mo.gov/CMSImages/ElectionResultsStatistics/1030PMCandidateTotalsbyCongressionalDistrict-withnumbers.pdf

but it's quite incomplete.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

You're so retarded.

That's rich coming from Oldies.

I was being sarcastic.

You've tried.

Keep trying, one day it just may work

[Mr. Morden]

Anyway, if it’s true that Cruz only won one of the CDs in Missouri, that’s pretty awful for him.  He very nearly tied Trump statewide, but he only gets 5 delegates because his support was so overwhelmingly concentrated in just one CD?

[Gass3268]

Anyway, if it’s true that Cruz only won one of the CDs in Missouri, that’s pretty awful for him.  He very nearly tied Trump statewide, but he only gets 5 delegates because his support was so overwhelmingly concentrated in just one CD?

He might have won CD-5 (Kansas City). Not sure yet.

[Alcon]

Tentatively, it appears that Cruz narrowly won MO-4 (41.5%-41.1%) and MO-5 (39.5%-38.8%).

https://www.sos.mo.gov/CMSImages/ElectionResultsStatistics/1230AMCandidateTotalsbyCongressionalDistrict-withnumbers.pdf

[Gass3268]

Tentatively, it appears that Cruz narrowly won MO-4 (41.5%-41.1%) and MO-5 (39.5%-38.8%).

https://www.sos.mo.gov/CMSImages/ElectionResultsStatistics/1230AMCandidateTotalsbyCongressionalDistrict-withnumbers.pdf

So he won 3 Congressional Districts.

[Alcon]

Tentatively, it appears that Cruz narrowly won MO-4 (41.5%-41.1%) and MO-5 (39.5%-38.8%).

https://www.sos.mo.gov/CMSImages/ElectionResultsStatistics/1230AMCandidateTotalsbyCongressionalDistrict-withnumbers.pdf

So he won 3 Congressional Districts.

It's hard to say, especially on MO-2, as this report listed no votes at all from Jefferson or St. Charles counties, unless I'm missing something...

I should have emphasized the "tentative" bit more.

[dax00]

I added up the "tentative" results and it comes up to 324k for Trump and 329k for Cruz, so significantly short of 100%.

[muon2]

The clearest case where a Trump delegate candidate in Illinois failed to get elected because of their name was in the 6th district:



Why did Trump voters back his delegates who had the last names Minch and Kois, but not someone named “Nabi Fakroddin”?  I’m trying to think of a reason. 

Likewise, Trump delegate candidate Taneequa Tolbert underperformed in CD2 (though still got elected, so it didn’t matter in the end).  And in CD13, Trump delegate candidate Raja Sadiq underperformed, and didn’t make it (though probably would have lost regardless of name in that case).

Why don’t Trump supporters want him to have delegates with last names like Fakroddin and Sadiq? 

The actual delegates are who made the difference here. Pat Brady is the former state GOP chair and Ron Sandack is the GOP Floor leader in the IL House. Both get a lot of press. Aaron Del Mar is the chair of the Cook GOP so he gets some press, too, but not as much as the other two for Kasich. Nabi Fakroddin lives in the town next to mine and he's a good guy, a professional engineer, and a member of the Illinois Human Rights Commission first appointed by Quinn and reappointed by Rauner. It's a shame his name would be a barrier for him.