Republican Ides of March Tuesday results thread (N. Marianas start at 4:30am ET)

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DON'T VOTE TRUMP NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS! YOU KNOW BETTER!!!!!!!

538 suggests that Trump may be favored in the Northern Marianas Islands because of the Carson endorsement.

Apparently, Carson had a bit of an organization in the Commonwealth and the Republican governor's support shifted from Carson to Trump after he dropped out. Trump also hired on the Executive Director of the NMI's Republican Party, who also once backed the Dr.

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I still think Trump will win every state except Ohio

Agreed, and I don't think he's dead in Ohio either.  Exit polls have a bad habit of being wrong this cycle.

Losing by 30% by late deciders is nothing to scoff at, even if an exit poll.

It all depends on the percentage that didn't make up their minds. I think 28% is a good bit above what he was taking previously in that category.

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Rubio is going to have to run up huge margins across Southeastern Florida to have a chance in this race based on the numbers that have come in thus far.

He's done. Per the polls. It's only a question whether it's 15 points or 25 points. They'll call this at 8:00:00 PM

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FOX just announced that there will be a call right at 6:30 (CT).

North Carolina Democrat is my guess. Hillary over Sanders. The most obvious of the calls.

They'll wait a bit on OH and NC on the R side.

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is this a good result for Trump tonight?

WIN FL IL NC
LOSE OH
TIE IN MO

Good perhaps, but not great.

Terrible for Rubio.
Bad for Cruz (because Kasich stays in).
Kasich claims to be viable, but he is not.

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how many delegates does Trump get if he loses to Ted by 4 points in MO?

It depends on the CD breakdown.

It's 5 per the 8 CDs.
12 for statewide winner.

You'd think Trump would probably take 3 of the CDs in that scenario, but that's not going micro into each district. Something like 37-15 would be about right.

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This speech is so emotional

Just drop out already, Marco. I am tired of your participation speeches.

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Mark it down, Cruz will win North Carolina by 2-3 points.

Not a chance. Look where the vote is out as compared to where it is in. Wake County - in. Charlotte - out. Trump extends this to the 8-10 point range before all is said and done -- in line with PPP.

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Kasich may pick up a few delegates from suburban Chicago. He's got delegates with better name recognition, and that has mattered in past years.

10 is a possibility, but there is a Crook County portion of that district.
14 as well, but the western counties look pro Trump.

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Anyone see any maps by CD for IL or MO?

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McDonald County, MO just went for Trump.  It's the farthest SW in the state. That's extremely bad news for Cruz.

Right now, Trump leads in 5 CDs, Cruz leads in 2 (and probably has CD7 locked up) and 1 has no votes in.

Unlike every other state, CDs in MO are worth 5 delegates, with the winner of the state getting 12 additional delegates.

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/MO-R

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I checked Pennsylvania for Kasich and if he plans to camp out there, he has basically given up.  It doesn't vote until April 26, I think and it only has 17 delegates according to CNN unless that's a typo.  He really needs to compete in every state the rest of the way, I think not just one insignificant state a month.

PA is an unusual animal. It's direct elect of delegates in the CDs, but there's a question as to how exactly bound those delegates are, even if a candidate wins in the district.

Plus, Kasich may get kicked off of the ballot there. A Rubio supporter brought suit because Kasich didn't have enough signatures. Kasich admitted that, but claimed the suit was brought too late. So who knows what ends up happening, especially since Rubio has now "suspended" his campaign.

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Looks like a very narrow Trump win to me

Narrow in the ballot box, but decisive in delegates.

Trump may take 7 of the 8 CDs by the time this is all said and done, leaving Cruz with just 5 delegates from CD7.

Trump leads in 6 of 7 CDs. Cruz has CD-7. CD-2 (St. Louis is still out). CD-1 (St. Louis has only a few votes in).

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I have a question.

Turmp is at 30% favorablity rating among americans.

Why is every single results thread we have on here basically posters that are so pro trump?

Atlas enjoys a freak show when they see one.

Ummm. More like numbers are numbers and if taken as they should be, the results thread should be "pro-Trump." He's won more states.

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In IL Kasich still leads for 7 delegates and Cruz for 9 delegates, that leaves 53 for Trump.

Is that good or bad for trump?

Very good. I wouldn't have expected that much of a win. If MO holds as it is looking, it may make up for Ohio and put him back on a 50-55% track of remaining delegates to win the nomination.

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What's the threshold for getting at-large delegates in Missouri? It's clear no one's getting the necessary majority to get all of Missouri unless there's some weird cascade result from candidates not meeting the threshold not having their votes count for the WTA rule, but I was wondering if Kasich has a chance at picking up a delegate. Probably not, as even a 10% threshold would keep him out.

No one is getting to 50% in the state, so
Winner takes the 12 statewide delegates in MO.
The eight CDs give out 5 delegates each to the winner.
According to thegreenpapers, Cruz now leads in CD5 (KC) and CD7. of the other 6 CDs Trump leads in all but CD2, where there are no votes yet. (Their total lags the CNN/NYT and Ace of Spades numbers)

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Cruz takes the lead in CD4, giving Cruz a third district to Trump's 4. Still no votes in from CD 2.

(But the margins in CD4 and CD5 for Cruz are razor thin).

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/MO-R

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Is Trump only the apparent winner instead of the projected winner because Cruz will likely request a recount?

Yes, though I doubt a recount can overturn 1636 votes (the final margin) unless there is a large uncounted cache of Cruz votes uncovered somewhere. Still, stranger things have happened. How many CDs did Cruz win in the final estimation? 3, right? (5, 4, and 7)?

It's down to 2 now CD 4 and CD 7, but the only sourcing I can find is lagging by about 100K votes.

Cruz leads CD 4 by about 452 votes, so that could theoretically flip.

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/MO-R
(Scroll down to see the CDs).

It's amazing that basically a < 2,000 margin in a non-WTA state can end up with Trump getting 42 of the 52 delegates.

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So, according to Erc's latest projections, Trump should win 37 delegates from Missouri, 52 from Illinois, and 29 from North Carolina.  This brings his total to 688 which is 549 shy of 1,237.  It is likely that Trump will end March less than 500 delegates away from the nomination if he can pull off Arizona where he is favored.  I'm giving Utah to Cruz since Rubio is out.  He still has a very doable path to the outright nomination and avoiding an open especially with a strong showing in Illinois tonight.

538 says he needs to be at 719 to be on track for the nomination by the end of tonight.

If MO stands as is, Trump will be at about 692 +/- 10 delegates, not that far off track.

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North Carolina is completely done:

Trump: 458,048 (40.2%)
Cruz: 418,572 (36.8%)
Kasich: 144,272 (12.7%)
Rubio: 87,845 (7.7%)

Greenpapers gave Trump 30 delegates, Cruz 27 delegates, Kasich 9 and Rubio 6. Carson fell under 1%, didn't get to the 1.39% threshold. To get to the number, they deleted other from the calculations.

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/NC-R

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does anyone have info on how the various IL CDs are voting?

It's direct election of delegates by CD, with the top 3 bound to the candidate of their choice as stated on the ballot.

Trump ended up with 52 delegates (including statewide)
Cruz got 9 delegates
Kasich got 8 delegates