Democratic Ides of March Tuesday results thread (first polls close at 7pm ET)

[Wiz in Wis]

Florida: Safe Clinton
Illinois: Toss Up - Lean Clinton
Missouri: Toss Up - Lean Sanders
North Carolina: Safe Clinton
Ohio: Toss Up - No Lean

[Wiz in Wis]

Voting for Sanders will elect Trump. Do your duty.

Ok... that's a bit of a stretch. His one vote won't be the one that elects Sanders, let alone the one that then elects Trump.

[Wiz in Wis]

If I heard it correctly on CNN Intl "continue Obama policies" in Ohio is at 50% and higher in other states. It was 52% in Michigan if I recall correctly.

Clinton ran well behind that number in MI. It'll be interesting to see if that happens again in the other midwestern states tonight.

No, she didn't? Firstly, in the final exit poll, the "Continue Obama's Policies" % was 50. 2nd, she got 48% of the vote! How is 2% "ran well behind?"

[Wiz in Wis]

If I heard it correctly on CNN Intl "continue Obama policies" in Ohio is at 50% and higher in other states. It was 52% in Michigan if I recall correctly.

Clinton ran well behind that number in MI. It'll be interesting to see if that happens again in the other midwestern states tonight.

No, she didn't? Firstly, in the final exit poll, the "Continue Obama's Policies" % was 50. 2nd, she got 48% of the vote! How is 2% "ran well behind?"

I remember it being 52% unless they adjusted it again.

Website has it at 50

[Wiz in Wis]

Hispanics allegedly went huge for Sanders in IL. Take that with a mountain of salt though.

Yeah, Shadow said. But the guy who said it on twitter wont back it up.

Even if it were true, the % Latino in IL exit poll is <10%. Huge margin of error on that number

[Wiz in Wis]

More exits:

These look pretty good for Clinton.

Sanders is running from farther to the left than any candidate these people can remember.  I'll take 2/3 saying that Sanders is realistic in IL and MO.  He's probably winning by a huge margin among these people.  

Hillary only got 71% realistic in Michigan. Not as big a divide in any of these states, but MO/IL do look better for Sanders than OH... on that metric.

[Wiz in Wis]

Bernie's advance in MO is only growing. On the other hand, Hillary's in Illinois is growing as well.

A lot of Bernie's part of MO is in... Still very little from St Louis/KC. Opposite in IL. Going to be razor thin in both... proportionally, Bernie is going to net nothing from either state.

[Wiz in Wis]

Hey, if Sanders can win Missouri and possibly even Illinois, nice rebound after a very rough night.

No, he needs to loose and be humiliated and forced to give up his delegates at the convention like Hillary was in 08.

The delegates Hillary has won can always flip for Bernie. Just saying.

I'll have what this guy is having!

[Wiz in Wis]

One other thing to note from tonight's results. There is not much evidence to suggest that Bernie is on course to win KY, WV, or IN, by big margins, if at all. Not likely to win Wisconsin by greater than 10.

[Wiz in Wis]

One interesting thing to note... I don't think ANYONE would have predicted that Hillary would net more delegates out of Ohio than North Carolina... but it looks like that is going to happen. WOW.

[Wiz in Wis]

Ohio was a bad, can't sad I'm too disappointed with Illinois. We put a really close fight & got close. A Missouri win. A good performance in NC.

Ohio was not good, look @ the break-up & the gop one, independents deserted Sanders for Kasich, killed him - To an extent same thing happened in Illinois as I can't see Kasich winning this many states/

Florida looks bad too, 33% odd - He needed close to 40%, big delegates & huge difference.

The numbers look almost impossible now - I can't see Bernie making these up especially when he will lose big states like New York, Maryland for sure and even if he wins CA or PA, those will be small victories.

I want him to get as close as possible to ensure his agenda is not relegated to the back-ground. I don't think his candidacy ever looked very winnable but he should not roll over & let the issues be sidelined

I definitely do not want Bernie to drop out. He has no reason to. He has run a good campaign, and as  Hillary supporter, I appreciate the focus on very important issues he has highlighted. Also, on a personal, selfish reason, I am glad that Bernie will be driving up the vote in WI on April 5... very important Supreme Court race and we definitively need the energy on the D side that Tuesday.

[Wiz in Wis]

What prevents us from making a projection in Missouri?

Based on what's left, we're looking at a Sanders win of about 3k. Pretty close, no reason to jump the call. Also, probably an even split in delegates.

Illinois looking safer and safer for Hillary though. That raw vote is holding pretty steady.

[Wiz in Wis]

I've been away for about an hour. What's the status of Illinois? Does anybody know where the remaining vote is out?

A lot of Lake just came in, margin unchanged. McHenry is only big part of IL out that leans Sanders. Hard to see him winning IL, or her winning MO.

[Wiz in Wis]

Rachel Maddow saying that Bernie outspent Hillary in MO by nearly 3-1. If she had any inkling that Ohio would be a rout, she could have moved $$/staff around and swept.

Also... if Bernie has to outspend Hillary 3-1 to TIE in a state we all thought he would have an advantage in, his $$$ are not going to help him as much as we all thought.

[Wiz in Wis]

I definitely do not want Bernie to drop out. He has no reason to. He has run a good campaign, and as  Hillary supporter, I appreciate the focus on very important issues he has highlighted. Also, on a personal, selfish reason, I am glad that Bernie will be driving up the vote in WI on April 5... very important Supreme Court race and we definitively need the energy on the D side that Tuesday.

Agreed.

As a Bernie supporter (who will vote for Hillary in the GE without whining about it), I also think it benefits Hillary for Bernie to stay in. She's able to continue addressing issues in a sane manner. If Bernie dropped, she would have to start going head to head with Trump, and while she can still do that and stay civilized, it'll be better for her to put off that fight and slowly work up to it.

If Bernie dropped out wouldn't she have to use GE funds from that point forward? I remember reading something to that effect...anyone know?

I thought it was pre/post convention - not candidates

[Wiz in Wis]

Recount in MO?

No point with proportional allocation.

Yeah... no point.

[Wiz in Wis]

SWEEP SWEEP SWEEP SWEEP!

[Wiz in Wis]

MSNBC calls Missouri for Clinton! SWEEPS WEEK!

[Wiz in Wis]

Really need Sanders to still be competitive by the time we get to Wisconsin. We have a very important Supreme Court race that night and we need turnout to be up on the Democratic side.

^^^^^^^
THIS

[Wiz in Wis]

Really need Sanders to still be competitive by the time we get to Wisconsin. We have a very important Supreme Court race that night and we need turnout to be up on the Democratic side.

Need that vote more for Barrett in Milwaukee. Should win anyways because Bob Donovan is a mini-Trump piece of trash.

Hopefully Larson as well.

I get that people don't like Abele, but having met both of them, and knowing staffers on both campaigns, I would vote for Abele. Larson is an abhorent person. Just a total piece of garbage.

Also, Larson totally cost the Dems the state senate by being easily the most incompetent leader the caucus has had in decades. Voting for him is voting for Milwaukee County to be demolished under GOP attacks and Dem infighting/incompetence. I say this as a Madison Liberal.