Democratic Ides of March Tuesday results thread (first polls close at 7pm ET) (user search)
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  Democratic Ides of March Tuesday results thread (first polls close at 7pm ET) (search mode)
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Author Topic: Democratic Ides of March Tuesday results thread (first polls close at 7pm ET)  (Read 44866 times)
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jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,743


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« on: March 15, 2016, 05:05:03 PM »

North Carolina almost as Anti-Trade as IL/MO? WOW!!

The US lost 900,000 textile jobs between 1994 and 2005, and I think hundreds of thousands of those were in NC.
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jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,743


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #1 on: March 15, 2016, 05:08:22 PM »

Clinton campaign is downplaying expectations in Ohio because of this switching to Republicans.

Ohio is 110% white now.
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jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,743


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #2 on: March 15, 2016, 05:57:04 PM »

Most of FL should be closing and reporting soon.

Will they do what they did in TX and start reporting the results when the earlier time zone finishes, but hold off on the exit poll until the later time zone finishes?
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jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,743


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #3 on: March 15, 2016, 06:17:23 PM »

Clinton is winning big in Florida and totally crushing Sanders. 62-35 is not really that good for Sanders.

ARG is the only pollster that had it closer than a 25 point spread.
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,743


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #4 on: March 15, 2016, 11:30:13 PM »

Missouri will be an absolute squeaker. Bernie by a couple hundred votes, perhaps.
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,743


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #5 on: March 15, 2016, 11:50:23 PM »

I've been a registered Democrat my entire life. I guess I'll have to change that.
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,743


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #6 on: March 16, 2016, 01:15:17 AM »

North Carolina is completely done:

Clinton: 616,225 (54.6%)
Sanders: 460,263 (40.8%)

What a relative under performance for Clinton, and about on par with her margin in Ohio!

Wow I never would of guessed that would happen....but Clinton has a 22 delegate gain on Sanders in NC which Is way smaller then I thought it would be.

Actually less than that since they already called 44 delegates for Bernie. Hillary has 59, with 4 uncalled.
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,743


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #7 on: March 16, 2016, 02:15:15 AM »

On Hispanics: I think it's safe to say Hillary is winning them comfortably. Based on the states with significant amounts of Hispanics, we've gotten two essential ties (NV/IL) and two Hillary blowouts (TX/FL). Blowout states are much larger too.

Hillary is winning southern Hispanics, but Bernie ties or wins non southern Hispanics.
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,743


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #8 on: March 16, 2016, 02:34:42 AM »

On Hispanics: I think it's safe to say Hillary is winning them comfortably. Based on the states with significant amounts of Hispanics, we've gotten two essential ties (NV/IL) and two Hillary blowouts (TX/FL). Blowout states are much larger too.

Hillary is winning southern Hispanics, but Bernie ties or wins non southern Hispanics.

Isn't that what he said... But I see you're still invested in the weird NV entrance poll.

He did win NV Hispanics, and may have won Colorado Hispanics.
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,743


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #9 on: March 16, 2016, 03:15:42 AM »

On Hispanics: I think it's safe to say Hillary is winning them comfortably. Based on the states with significant amounts of Hispanics, we've gotten two essential ties (NV/IL) and two Hillary blowouts (TX/FL). Blowout states are much larger too.

Hillary is winning southern Hispanics, but Bernie ties or wins non southern Hispanics.

Isn't that what he said... But I see you're still invested in the weird NV entrance poll.

He did win NV Hispanics, and may have won Colorado Hispanics.

Why are you so convinced that he won NV Hispanics?  Why trust the exit poll sample over Hispanic precincts? They both have similar problems with representativeness.  What's the difference, besides that you prefer one is true?

Heavily Hispanic precincts which likely have a lot of blacks don't vote the same as Hispanics statewide. Read this for more details.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/2/22/1488704/-Do-Nevada-precinct-results-show-that-Clinton-won-Latinos-Um-No-Not-when-you-look-more-carefully
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