Most likely neither Hillary nor Trump will be their party's nominee.

[Beet]

Before anyone freaks out about me freaking out, I am only about 70% sure of Hillary at this point, but 90% sure of Trump.

For Hillary, it's a matter of probability. There are simply too many things that could go wrong for her, and the dynamics of the race just aren't good. The longer it drags out, the more Bernie's superior fundraising, volunteer and enthusiasm numbers grind her down.

For Trump, it's a matter of him being increasingly unacceptable. His chance in early March was to move towards a more 'presidential' and mainstream style, and reassure establishment Republicans. Instead, he's gone, and been pushed, the other way. He's fading out of the mainstream, and away from viability.

For both candidates, their problem is that there are simply too many people against them. To get a nomination, at some point, one's opponents must accept your victory, and that doesn't happen for either of these two, for differing reasons.

[Yan]

Unless the planets align in the wake of a blue moon and Sanders wins North Carolina, it is mathematically impossible for him to win the nomination. You can let go of your pearls, my friend.

[Beet]

Unless the planets align in the wake of a blue moon and Sanders wins North Carolina, it is mathematically impossible for him to win the nomination. You can let go of your pearls, my friend.

Currently the odds of me being right are only 7.7% on PredictIt. Let's see if I'm right

EDIT: And yes, it is mathematically possible for Elizabeth Warren to jump into the race tomorrow, take every pledged delegate going forward, and go into the convention with more than either Hillary or Bernie. Will it happen? No. But is it possible? Yes. Stop saying my predictions are mathematically impossible because if that was true, Bernie wouldn't be campaigning.

[Bull Moose Base]

You know Democrats have no winner-take-all states, yes? The longer it drags on, the higher margins Bernie has to win by to overcome her delegate lead. He's going to blow her out in New York and California? So Bernie has closer to a 7% chance than a 70% chance of being the nominee.

The GOP is less certain but Trump is not unacceptable to the majority of Republican voters. A record number of Republican voters for a nominee? Yes. A majority of them? No. They might still stop him but he's much closer to 90% to win than 90% to lose.

[Thunderbird is the word]

so Sanders vs. Cruz then?

[Beet]

Yes, he could blow her out in New York and California.

Her delegate lead is ~210. After tonight, it could be more like ~250 if she gets big margins in FL and NC and loses narrowly in the north. With blowout wins in the upcoming lily white caucus states, he can cut her delegate lead down by about 100. Can he then make up 150 delegates in the remaining states, including New York, Pennsylvania, and California? Certainly.

He has a superior message, superior volunteer effort, superior fundraising -- his campaign in superior in every way (except the candidate, but that's just my personal O). Yet despite this, he still gets to keep the underdog aura due to his delegate deficit. So the longer it goes on, the more he rolls.

Btw, Hillary's wins so far have been based on her name reputation and running out the clock. If you had put these dynamics in Alabama and just let it marinate for 8 months, Bernie could have absolutely flipped the state.

[Yan]

Unless the planets align in the wake of a blue moon and Sanders wins North Carolina, it is mathematically impossible for him to win the nomination. You can let go of your pearls, my friend.

Currently the odds of me being right are only 7.7% on PredictIt. Let's see if I'm right

EDIT: And yes, it is mathematically possible for Elizabeth Warren to jump into the race tomorrow, take every pledged delegate going forward, and go into the convention with more than either Hillary or Bernie. Will it happen? No. But is it possible? Yes. Stop saying my predictions are mathematically impossible because if that was true, Bernie wouldn't be campaigning.

Well, I'll grant you that Sanders could easily win the nomination if Clinton's army of superdelegates started evacuating en masse, but that doesn't seem particularly likely. As it stands, in order to make up the deficit, he needs to blow Clinton out of the water in every primary from here until the convention.

Sanders needs a mathematical perfect storm to pull this off, and even as an ardent supporter, I just don't see that happening.

[Beet]

You're saying things that simply aren't true. He can cut her lead by about ~100 delegates between now and New York by blowing out the lily white states, even if he gets nothing out of Arizona and Hawaii. California alone has 475 delegates. There are plenty of delegates to go, and with his superior campaign it's more likely he'll get them or not.

[Fusionmunster]

Yes, he could blow her out in New York and California.

Her delegate lead is ~210. After tonight, it could be more like ~250 if she gets big margins in FL and NC and loses narrowly in the north. With blowout wins in the upcoming lily white caucus states, he can cut her delegate lead down by about 100. Can he then make up 150 delegates in the remaining states, including New York, Pennsylvania, and California? Certainly.

He has a superior message, superior volunteer effort, superior fundraising -- his campaign in superior in every way (except the candidate, but that's just my personal O). Yet despite this, he still gets to keep the underdog aura due to his delegate deficit. So the longer it goes on, the more he rolls.

Btw, Hillary's wins so far have been based on her name reputation and running out the clock. If you had put these dynamics in Alabama and just let it marinate for 8 months, Bernie could have absolutely flipped the state.

Just wait until tomorrow before you start making these threads Beet.

[Virginiá]

There's quite a bit of talk about blow outs in this thread

Beet, I see what you're saying, but you shouldn't have said "Most likely". Instead, why not "It's plausible that...". At this exact point in time, it's far more likely Sanders runs a long primary just to lose in the end than it is for him to magically win landslides in the vast majority of states from here on out.

All you had to do was wait until tomorrow or late tonight to have be able to make a much more accurate prediction

[Gass3268]

Yes, he could blow her out in New York and California.

Her delegate lead is ~210. After tonight, it could be more like ~250 if she gets big margins in FL and NC and loses narrowly in the north. With blowout wins in the upcoming lily white caucus states, he can cut her delegate lead down by about 100. Can he then make up 150 delegates in the remaining states, including New York, Pennsylvania, and California? Certainly.

He has a superior message, superior volunteer effort, superior fundraising -- his campaign in superior in every way (except the candidate, but that's just my personal O). Yet despite this, he still gets to keep the underdog aura due to his delegate deficit. So the longer it goes on, the more he rolls.

Btw, Hillary's wins so far have been based on her name reputation and running out the clock. If you had put these dynamics in Alabama and just let it marinate for 8 months, Bernie could have absolutely flipped the state.

Just wait until tomorrow before you start making these threads Beet.

I have to agree with this.

[IceSpear]

You're saying things that simply aren't true. He can cut her lead by about ~100 delegates between now and New York by blowing out the lily white states, even if he gets nothing out of Arizona and Hawaii. California alone has 475 delegates. There are plenty of delegates to go, and with his superior campaign it's more likely he'll get them or not.

No he can't. Unless you're thinking he wins them by Vermont-esque margins.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

OK, Beet, who do you think is the most likely Republican nominee under this scenario?

EDIT: And yes, it is mathematically possible for Elizabeth Warren to jump into the race tomorrow, take every pledged delegate going forward, and go into the convention with more than either Hillary or Bernie. Will it happen? No. But is it possible? Yes. Stop saying my predictions are mathematically impossible because if that was true, Bernie wouldn't be campaigning.

Even if there is no path for him whatsoever, Bernie still would be running, at least until Hillary clinched enough delegated to become a presumptive nominee. Remember he launched his campaign to address issues, since literally nobody gave him a chance when he entered the race.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

You're saying things that simply aren't true. He can cut her lead by about ~100 delegates between now and New York by blowing out the lily white states, even if he gets nothing out of Arizona and Hawaii. California alone has 475 delegates. There are plenty of delegates to go, and with his superior campaign it's more likely he'll get them or not.

No he can't. Unless you're thinking he wins them by Vermont-esque margins.

Bernie can sweep rest of the states, but he still would be likely to be short of delegates.

This is how Obama won in 2008: in addition to states he won he managed to make it close in a number of key Hillary states, thus collecting delegates needed despite losing those.

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to believe Bernie has a convinceable path, but the only chance Hillary is not the nominee is if she's going to jail. And despite right wing trollery, that's not very likely either.

[Beet]

The Republican nomination is a complete crapshoot at this point. Trying to predict it would be foolhardy. But if Trump is rejected, the Republicans will have done a good job of setting up a boogeyman on the far right who makes whomever they eventually choose look reasonable and moderate. At that point, if Sanders is the nominee, his revolution becoming a (at least partial) reality may be the only hope for Democrats.

Comparisons to 2008 are problematic because the stasis between Hill and O in that race, was due to the lack of substantive differences between the candidates. It become all about identity politics and demographics. It was trench warfare. If I'm right, this'll be more like World War II than World War I. I'll admit Bernie's message is very strong and it may provide him the "blitz" necessary to win a proportional system.

[The Other Castro]

I agree about Trump not winning, but you're overreacting about Clinton. Today does not determine whether Sanders will win the nomination, but whether he still has a chance. Even if Sander's best case scenario, he's not comfortably winning this nomination unless something very unexpected happens like him winning NY and CA both by solid margins.

[jaichind]

Well, I'll grant you that Sanders could easily win the nomination if Clinton's army of superdelegates started evacuating en masse, but that doesn't seem particularly likely. As it stands, in order to make up the deficit, he needs to blow Clinton out of the water in every primary from here until the convention.

Sanders needs a mathematical perfect storm to pull this off, and even as an ardent supporter, I just don't see that happening.

Well, if Sanders starts leading the popular vote overall the super-delegates will mostly have to switch.  This is very unlikely though.  Sanders will need 10%+ leads in places like CA NY PA IL etc etc which does not look like in the cards even as it is possible he might get very narrow wins in those states.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Well that settles it. It's DEFINITELY going to be Hillary vs. Trump.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Well that settles it. It's DEFINITELY going to be Hillary vs. Trump.

I guess all media outlets can make a projection now due to Beet's reverse effect.

[Bull Moose Base]

Unless the planets align in the wake of a blue moon and Sanders wins North Carolina, it is mathematically impossible for him to win the nomination. You can let go of your pearls, my friend.

Currently the odds of me being right are only 7.7% on PredictIt. Let's see if I'm right

EDIT: And yes, it is mathematically possible for Elizabeth Warren to jump into the race tomorrow, take every pledged delegate going forward, and go into the convention with more than either Hillary or Bernie. Will it happen? No. But is it possible? Yes. Stop saying my predictions are mathematically impossible because if that was true, Bernie wouldn't be campaigning.

Well, I'll grant you that Sanders could easily win the nomination if Clinton's army of superdelegates started evacuating en masse, but that doesn't seem particularly likely. As it stands, in order to make up the deficit, he needs to blow Clinton out of the water in every primary from here until the convention.

Sanders needs a mathematical perfect storm to pull this off, and even as an ardent supporter, I just don't see that happening.

Ignore the superdelegates. If Bernie wins pledged delegates and it gets overturned with supers, the Dems will come out of their convention in worse shape than the GOP. But even just looking at the pledged delegates, very hard for me to see how Bernie closes the gap.

[IceSpear]

You're saying things that simply aren't true. He can cut her lead by about ~100 delegates between now and New York by blowing out the lily white states, even if he gets nothing out of Arizona and Hawaii. California alone has 475 delegates. There are plenty of delegates to go, and with his superior campaign it's more likely he'll get them or not.

No he can't. Unless you're thinking he wins them by Vermont-esque margins.

Bernie can sweep rest of the states, but he still would be likely to be short of delegates.

This is how Obama won in 2008: in addition to states he won he managed to make it close in a number of key Hillary states, thus collecting delegates needed despite losing those.

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to believe Bernie has a convinceable path, but the only chance Hillary is not the nominee is if she's going to jail. And despite right wing trollery, that's not very likely either.

I think he could still have a ray of hope depending on how tonight turns out. We'll see soon enough.

[°Leprechaun]

so Sanders vs. Cruz then?

or Sanders beats Cruz

[Shadows]

You know Democrats have no winner-take-all states, yes? The longer it drags on, the higher margins Bernie has to win by to overcome her delegate lead. He's going to blow her out in New York and California? So Bernie has closer to a 7% chance than a 70% chance of being the nominee.

The GOP is less certain but Trump is not unacceptable to the majority of Republican voters. A record number of Republican voters for a nominee? Yes. A majority of them? No. They might still stop him but he's much closer to 90% to win than 90% to lose.

He'll win a lot of states from Wisconsin to Washington to Oregon, etc which are delegate heavy & a lot of smaller states after today - All these by good margins.

New York looks impossible but California looks possible for a win, maybe a decent win (not blow off) considering we have absolutely an army of passionate Sanders supporters, it's unreal!

[Shadows]

You're saying things that simply aren't true. He can cut her lead by about ~100 delegates between now and New York by blowing out the lily white states, even if he gets nothing out of Arizona and Hawaii. California alone has 475 delegates. There are plenty of delegates to go, and with his superior campaign it's more likely he'll get them or not.

No he can't. Unless you're thinking he wins them by Vermont-esque margins.

Bernie can sweep rest of the states, but he still would be likely to be short of delegates.

This is how Obama won in 2008: in addition to states he won he managed to make it close in a number of key Hillary states, thus collecting delegates needed despite losing those.

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to believe Bernie has a convinceable path, but the only chance Hillary is not the nominee is if she's going to jail. And despite right wing trollery, that's not very likely either.

I think he could still have a ray of hope depending on how tonight turns out. We'll see soon enough.

Clinton is the firm favorite & would be the firm favorite after today as well IMO. If Sanders has any chance he has to win big in the coming states before New York - That will be his big test - How big can he win & how much can he make up & how much momentum is he carrying to New York?

[Beet]

I don't understand why people think Bernie's chances are so low. He's outraising her, outspending her, generates more enthusiasm, generates more positive press coverage, and just won a big upset victory in Michigan. He should be favored, not just from some widely-mocked Beet prediction (yeah, I know where I stand here), but by conventional prognosticators like Nate Silver and the majority of the board.