AZ-Merrill Poll: Trump up 12, Clinton up 26

[IceSpear]

https://twitter.com/Strategy_48/status/709804178621661185

Trump 31
Cruz 19
Rubio 10
Kasich 10

Clinton 50
Sanders 24

[RJEvans]

Well we know the AZ race with tighten significantly. I believe Clinton won the state by 8 points '08. I wonder if she can do better. Perhaps 10-15 points? She will need a good performance in AZ to pad the likely thrashing she'll get in ID and UT. I'm thinking Bernie nets 15-25 delegates next Tuesday. Surprisingly she almost cracked 40% in UT in '08. A little resources and a campaign stop can make that a 10-point race.

[Holmes]

Remember that this is a closed primary on both sides. That puts Sanders at a big disadvantage and Trump at a small disadvantage.

[Matty]

Rubio getting 10 in a 12 point race could be signficant.

also, high number of undecideds.

[Ronnie]

Trump needs to camp out here for the next week.  A loss of the state's WTA delegates would surely plunge the race into a contested convention.

[Ljube]

Trump needs to camp out here for the next week.  A loss of the state's WTA delegates would surely plunge the race into a contested convention.

TRUMP needs to camp everywhere. It seems that every delegate will count.

[Ebsy]

Arizona being WTA will be very good for TRUMP.

[Wiz in Wis]

Well we know the AZ race with tighten significantly. I believe Clinton won the state by 8 points '08. I wonder if she can do better. Perhaps 10-15 points? She will need a good performance in AZ to pad the likely thrashing she'll get in ID and UT. I'm thinking Bernie nets 15-25 delegates next Tuesday. Surprisingly she almost cracked 40% in UT in '08. A little resources and a campaign stop can make that a 10-point race.

After Michigan/Ohio, I don't know that it will. I'm sure Sanders will outspend her there, but he outspent her in Missouri 4-1. Latinos haven't been his best group, especially near the border.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Well we know the AZ race with tighten significantly. I believe Clinton won the state by 8 points '08. I wonder if she can do better. Perhaps 10-15 points? She will need a good performance in AZ to pad the likely thrashing she'll get in ID and UT. I'm thinking Bernie nets 15-25 delegates next Tuesday. Surprisingly she almost cracked 40% in UT in '08. A little resources and a campaign stop can make that a 10-point race.

Utah was a primary in 2008. Now it's a caucus.
I see polls have her leading there but I doubt her lead survives the caucus process.

[President Johnson]

Arizona is TRUMP territory.

[Crumpets]

Has Sanders actually won registered Democrats in a primary anywhere besides Vermont?

[Holmes]

Has Sanders actually won registered Democrats in a primary anywhere besides Vermont?

New Hampshire, and most likely Colorado, Minnesota, Kansas, Nebraska and Maine.

edit: Oh wait, you meant just primaries. Then just New Hampshire.

[RJEvans]

Well we know the AZ race with tighten significantly. I believe Clinton won the state by 8 points '08. I wonder if she can do better. Perhaps 10-15 points? She will need a good performance in AZ to pad the likely thrashing she'll get in ID and UT. I'm thinking Bernie nets 15-25 delegates next Tuesday. Surprisingly she almost cracked 40% in UT in '08. A little resources and a campaign stop can make that a 10-point race.

Utah was a primary in 2008. Now it's a caucus.
I see polls have her leading there but I doubt her lead survives the caucus process.

Damn, you're right. Why would they change it? So 70-30 Sanders is my delegate split expectations.

[Gass3268]

Has Sanders actually won registered Democrats in a primary anywhere besides Vermont?

New Hampshire, and most likely Colorado, Minnesota, Kansas, Nebraska and Maine.

edit: Oh wait, you meant just primaries. Then just New Hampshire.

Oklahoma

[Xing]

I wouldn't be surprised if Clinton wins by even more. Since AZ not only has a lot of Latinos, but also many elderly voters, it's somewhat similar to FL, but with fewer black voters. Still, it's a terrible fit for Sanders.

[Vosem]

Considering Rubio is out and a good majority of his guys will go to Cruz here, and undecideds usually break against _trump, and this is a closed primary, I have to say I like Cruz's chances. Reminds me of that Idaho poll that had _trump up and Carson in double-digits.

31% is not a good place for _trump to be in a must-win state, though.

[Fargobison]

Early voting could be an issue for Cruz here.

[Maxwell]

Remember that this is a closed primary on both sides. That puts Sanders at a big disadvantage and Trump at a small disadvantage.

It also puts Kasich at a big disadvantage, though he already is by not really targeting Arizona.

[gf20202]

Has Sanders actually won registered Democrats in a primary anywhere besides Vermont?

New Hampshire, and most likely Colorado, Minnesota, Kansas, Nebraska and Maine.

edit: Oh wait, you meant just primaries. Then just New Hampshire.

Oklahoma

I think the question was about closed primaries like Arizona where only Dems can vote. Clinton won Dems in OK 52 to 43, according to the Exit Polls.

http://www.cbsnews.com/elections/2016/primaries/democrat/oklahoma/exit/

[Lief 🗽]

Early voting could be an issue for Cruz here.

Is there data out there about how many voters have already early voted in Arizona?

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Unlike most Trumpeters, I am extremely concerned about this state. I hope Trump puts all his resources (rallies) there.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Trump only being at 31%  is actually a surprisingly weak result for him. I'd have expected him in the 40's at least. I'd really hate to agree with Vosem on anything related to Trump's victory chances, but if anti-trump vote start coalescing more towards a single candidate as election day gets closer (which it has done in several states) 31% is a really low starting point for Trump.

[Matty]

trump doesn't even need arizona at this point.

[Matty]

trump doesn't even need arizona at this point.

If he's losing AZ of all states to Cruz, say hello to a brokered convention.

trump literally can win NY, PA, and CA alone and go far beyond 1237.

[Fargobison]

If Trump loses AZ...my thoughts on him winning CA take a rather large hit.