AZ-Merrill Poll: Trump up 12, Clinton up 26

[Gass3268]

trump doesn't even need arizona at this point.

If he's losing AZ of all states to Cruz, say hello to a brokered convention.

trump literally can win NY, PA, and CA alone and go far beyond 1237.

Trump will win PA, but most of the delegates will be unbound based on their system.

[Matty]

trump doesn't even need arizona at this point.

If he's losing AZ of all states to Cruz, say hello to a brokered convention.

trump literally can win NY, PA, and CA alone and go far beyond 1237.

Trump will win PA, but most of the delegates will be unbound based on their system.

the hell? Why even vote then?

[The Free North]

trump doesn't even need arizona at this point.

If he's losing AZ of all states to Cruz, say hello to a brokered convention.

trump literally can win NY, PA, and CA alone and go far beyond 1237.

Go look at 538's delegate totals before you go spouting off more nonsense. If Trump loses AZ he is even further off track for the nomination.

[RBH]

superquick math on the 3/22 states on the Dem side if Bernie gets around the low-mid 60s in ID/UT and Clinton has a strong AZ showing

Idaho: 14-9 Bernie

Utah: 22-11 Bernie

then Clinton has to win AZ by 46-29 (61% of delegates) to add to her lead. 25 of the 75 AZ delegates are PLEO or at-large. So, if she wins 60/40, she gets 15 of 25 delegates. Districts like AZ3 (Grijalva) and AZ7 (Gallego) only have 5 delegates and are splitting 3-2.

AZ1 (Kirkpatrick) and AZ9 (Sinema) are 6 delegates and probably hard to get a 4-2 in.

AZ2 (McSally) has 8 delegates. Clinton has run ads with Gabby Giffords outside of AZ, but I don't know if she can try to get a strong margin here by having Gabby in ads.

The rest are almost all 5 delegate districts (aside from 4 delegate AZ4)

[RJEvans]

superquick math on the 3/22 states on the Dem side if Bernie gets around the low-mid 60s in ID/UT and Clinton has a strong AZ showing

Idaho: 14-9 Bernie

Utah: 22-11 Bernie

then Clinton has to win AZ by 46-29 (61% of delegates) to add to her lead. 25 of the 75 AZ delegates are PLEO or at-large. So, if she wins 60/40, she gets 15 of 25 delegates. Districts like AZ3 (Grijalva) and AZ7 (Gallego) only have 5 delegates and are splitting 3-2.

AZ1 (Kirkpatrick) and AZ9 (Sinema) are 6 delegates and probably hard to get a 4-2 in.

AZ2 (McSally) has 8 delegates. Clinton has run ads with Gabby Giffords outside of AZ, but I don't know if she can try to get a strong margin here by having Gabby in ads.

The rest are almost all 5 delegate districts (aside from 4 delegate AZ4)

I suspect Bernie will net 50-80 delegates from March 22 through April 9. But after that, things look up for Clinton. Using 538 projections, Clinton should win the nomination with about 380 delegates to spare.