AZ-Merrill Poll: Trump up 12, Clinton up 26

[RJEvans]

Well we know the AZ race with tighten significantly. I believe Clinton won the state by 8 points '08. I wonder if she can do better. Perhaps 10-15 points? She will need a good performance in AZ to pad the likely thrashing she'll get in ID and UT. I'm thinking Bernie nets 15-25 delegates next Tuesday. Surprisingly she almost cracked 40% in UT in '08. A little resources and a campaign stop can make that a 10-point race.

[RJEvans]

Well we know the AZ race with tighten significantly. I believe Clinton won the state by 8 points '08. I wonder if she can do better. Perhaps 10-15 points? She will need a good performance in AZ to pad the likely thrashing she'll get in ID and UT. I'm thinking Bernie nets 15-25 delegates next Tuesday. Surprisingly she almost cracked 40% in UT in '08. A little resources and a campaign stop can make that a 10-point race.

Utah was a primary in 2008. Now it's a caucus.
I see polls have her leading there but I doubt her lead survives the caucus process.

Damn, you're right. Why would they change it? So 70-30 Sanders is my delegate split expectations.

[RJEvans]

superquick math on the 3/22 states on the Dem side if Bernie gets around the low-mid 60s in ID/UT and Clinton has a strong AZ showing

Idaho: 14-9 Bernie

Utah: 22-11 Bernie

then Clinton has to win AZ by 46-29 (61% of delegates) to add to her lead. 25 of the 75 AZ delegates are PLEO or at-large. So, if she wins 60/40, she gets 15 of 25 delegates. Districts like AZ3 (Grijalva) and AZ7 (Gallego) only have 5 delegates and are splitting 3-2.

AZ1 (Kirkpatrick) and AZ9 (Sinema) are 6 delegates and probably hard to get a 4-2 in.

AZ2 (McSally) has 8 delegates. Clinton has run ads with Gabby Giffords outside of AZ, but I don't know if she can try to get a strong margin here by having Gabby in ads.

The rest are almost all 5 delegate districts (aside from 4 delegate AZ4)

I suspect Bernie will net 50-80 delegates from March 22 through April 9. But after that, things look up for Clinton. Using 538 projections, Clinton should win the nomination with about 380 delegates to spare.