RBH
Sr. Member
Posts: 2,211
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« on: March 17, 2016, 01:05:37 PM » |
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superquick math on the 3/22 states on the Dem side if Bernie gets around the low-mid 60s in ID/UT and Clinton has a strong AZ showing
Idaho: 14-9 Bernie
Utah: 22-11 Bernie
then Clinton has to win AZ by 46-29 (61% of delegates) to add to her lead. 25 of the 75 AZ delegates are PLEO or at-large. So, if she wins 60/40, she gets 15 of 25 delegates. Districts like AZ3 (Grijalva) and AZ7 (Gallego) only have 5 delegates and are splitting 3-2.
AZ1 (Kirkpatrick) and AZ9 (Sinema) are 6 delegates and probably hard to get a 4-2 in.
AZ2 (McSally) has 8 delegates. Clinton has run ads with Gabby Giffords outside of AZ, but I don't know if she can try to get a strong margin here by having Gabby in ads.
The rest are almost all 5 delegate districts (aside from 4 delegate AZ4)
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