Is there any doubt in your mind Trump will be the nominee?

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Btw, has Grumps even posted on this board before?

I try very hard to avoid it.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

I have no doubt he'll have a plurality of the delegates. The RNC could still steal it from him at the convention though.

I doubt they will.  Reince has said multiple times that the RNC will get behind the nominee regardless of who it is.  Apparently, he wasn't at all happy with Mittens doing what he did in Salt Lake City.

Why do people keep acting as though losing the nomination by less than other candidates somehow makes Trump the presumptive nominee?

[The Other Castro]

Honestly, gun to my head, I don't think Trump will be the nominee.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

I have no doubt he'll have a plurality of the delegates. The RNC could still steal it from him at the convention though.

I can imagine enough of GOP elders deciding to back off in order to avoid a contested convention. A contested convention would be a total disaster in general, not just to a presidential nominee but downballot candidates. And with Senate control being a big question, it would be foolish to attempt that. Life is not freaking HoC.

I wouldn't be surprised if the "brokered convention" talk is more of a talk to scare remaining primary votes away from Trump than actual plan.

[RightBehind]

I don't care if he's nominated, so long as he's not elected.

[emailking]

I have no doubt he'll have a plurality of the delegates. The RNC could still steal it from him at the convention though.

I doubt they will.  Reince has said multiple times that the RNC will get behind the nominee regardless of who it is.  Apparently, he wasn't at all happy with Mittens doing what he did in Salt Lake City.

Why do people keep acting as though losing the nomination by less than other candidates somehow makes Trump the presumptive nominee?

Because that's the way the vast majority of elections in this country work, even if it doesn't make sense. Whoever gets the most votes wins.  Runoffs aren't very common, and vote splitting isn't a concept that most people really think about.

[Erc]

Trump can easily still lose; the odds are that he does not win a majority of the delegates by June 7.

The question is, of course, whether there is the political will to fight that battle at the convention.

Just because this country doesn't know how to handle contests with more than two candidates doesn't mean we should hand the nomination to Trump on a platter just because he has the loudest supporters.

[DINGO Joe]

Can this board DIAF now?

Mods, please ban this troll from 2016.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

I have no doubt he'll have a plurality of the delegates. The RNC could still steal it from him at the convention though.

I doubt they will.  Reince has said multiple times that the RNC will get behind the nominee regardless of who it is.  Apparently, he wasn't at all happy with Mittens doing what he did in Salt Lake City.

Why do people keep acting as though losing the nomination by less than other candidates somehow makes Trump the presumptive nominee?

Because that's the way the vast majority of elections in this country work, even if it doesn't make sense. Whoever gets the most votes wins.  Runoffs aren't very common, and vote splitting isn't a concept that most people really think about.

Except, it isn't, particularly for primary races. Top to bottom, President to county executive, there are plenty of counterexamples: the Presidency doesn't go to whoever got "the most" electoral votes, it goes to whoever got 270 or more... and its mathematically impossible for more than one contender to reach that target. Likewise, there are elections from Louisiana to Minnesota where failure to reach a certain threshold means a run-off, not "biggest plurality wins".

And finally, these were the rules under which Trump agreed to run when he sought the Republican nomination. Saying. "sorry, you didn't get enough delegates" is not the GOP "stealing the nomination" from Trump, it's pointing out: you lost. (Now, if they change the rules to get that same outcome, that's a whole different thing, even if they're technically entitled to do so.)

[wolfsblood07]

Some doubt, but decreasing by the day.

This.  My feeling is that as the primary season winds down, the GOP establishment may realize it's time to beat Hillary.  Not everyone will come on board, but many will.

[President Johnson]

He WILL be the nominee and the establishment should give up.

[ElectionsGuy]

Cruz needs something big to happen, he needs to win Arizona. If he can't do that, his chances are probably dead. Outside of that, its Trump or contested convention.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Can this board DIAF now?

Mods, please ban this troll from 2016.

After this thread I'm banning myself, dingyjo

[Mr. Morden]

Btw, has Grumps even posted on this board before?

I try very hard to avoid it.

Try harder.

[Orthogonian Society Treasurer]

Plenty of doubt, sure. I'm absolutely confident that neither Kasich nor Cruz will be the nominee, however.

[Mr. Morden]

I have no doubt he'll have a plurality of the delegates. The RNC could still steal it from him at the convention though.

I can imagine enough of GOP elders deciding to back off in order to avoid a contested convention. A contested convention would be a total disaster in general, not just to a presidential nominee but downballot candidates. And with Senate control being a big question, it would be foolish to attempt that. Life is not freaking HoC.

I wouldn't be surprised if the "brokered convention" talk is more of a talk to scare remaining primary votes away from Trump than actual plan.

Well, many Republicans think a Trump nomination would be an equal or bigger disaster than a contested convention.

In any case, the "party elders" aren't monolithic.  And it's not like they can necessarily stop a contested convention from happening if Cruz and/or Kasich press forward and win enough delegates to stop Trump.

Because that's the way the vast majority of elections in this country work, even if it doesn't make sense. Whoever gets the most votes wins.  Runoffs aren't very common, and vote splitting isn't a concept that most people really think about.

Trump's supposed plurality "mandate" though gets a bit muddied if two of the other candidates combine forces to form a ticket, and they collectively have more votes than Trump does.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Trump's supposed plurality "mandate" though gets a bit muddied if two of the other candidates combine forces to form a ticket, and they collectively have more votes than Trump does.

How do you split two candidates delegates across one candidate?

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Trump's supposed plurality "mandate" though gets a bit muddied if two of the other candidates combine forces to form a ticket, and they collectively have more votes than Trump does.

How do you split two candidates delegates across one candidate?

The same way that Trump supporters like to turn a theoretical (but likely) plurality into a theoretical (but unlikely) majority?

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

There is some doubt, but I'd give Trump a 99+% chance of winning... 90% that he secures it pre-convention.

[morgieb]

There's no doubt that Trump is the only one that can win a majority of delegates and that he will win a plurality of delegates. He can still lose it on the floor though. I doubt however that they will steal it in the end - I think enough Republicans prefer any Republican to Hillary.

[Ronnie]

There is plenty of doubt.  At this rate, it seems unlikely that he will manage to get a majority of delegates, and I believe that even if he comes one delegate short of 1237, many of the delegates pledged to him on the first ballot would immediately bolt.  Then, anything could happen.  Most likely, Cruz would come out on top, but who knows?

[Ljube]

I have no doubt he'll have a plurality of the delegates. The RNC could still steal it from him at the convention though.

He appears to be on course to win all 95 delegates from New York. If he can get them all, I think he will have the required 1237 delegates.

[TJ in Oregon]

Yes, he's still under 50% of the delegates and will likely remain so. If no one gets >50% they don't win the nomination outright. That's the way the rules are written. I do not expect Trump to win the contested convention.

[Lincoln Republican]

Cruz wins.

[Mr. Morden]

He appears to be on course to win all 95 delegates from New York.

I don't think so.  The only way that happens is if he gets over 50% in every single congressional district in the state.  That seems unlikely.