Obama to be extensively involved in 2016 campaign

[Santander]

You're right - he doesn't project weakness. He strongly fights for terrible policies that wreck the country.

That's utter nonsense you're spewing.

TARP was good, NCLB was good and the Surge worked. Those were all controversial decisions. PEPFAR was a great humanitarian achievement. I'm not saying Bush was a great president or even that I agree with him more than Obama, but he was better than he's given credit for. At the end of the day, there isn't a tremendous amount of difference between the establishment in the two parties, and I just don't think Obama is suited for the presidency. He's a good man who I admire (and voted for), but he thinks like an idealist and acts like a technocrat, which I don't think is a formula for success.

[MK]

One of the question marks around 2016 is will black voters turnout out like they did in 2008 and 2012 or return to lower levels like with Kerry or Gore. Black turnout in 2010 and 2014 was actually pretty good so there is some argument that Obama doesn't need to be on the ballot, but with Obama actively campaigning for Hillary it will certainly help.

Indeed. However, having Obama out there could also help Trump drive out the white vote. Obama's share of the white vote was only 39% in 2012, and odds are in 2016 America, his share of the white vote would fall further if he were on the ballot. I'm curious as to how bad Hillary might end up doing with the white vote if the Democratic Party continues to embrace urban rhetoric and dismiss white voters (IE Coal industry, Trump supporters, ect)

I can't see Hillary getting more than 34-35% among Whites ... which would be worse than Obama did. And that means something. Especially if many white DEM males are sitting out the election or rural ones who switch over to Trump.

Trump in general will do extremely well with Whites this year.

Of couse Latinos will be about 80-85% for Hillary, which might be enough to counter her Whites problem.

Problem is the Latino vote is is places already locked up.  NV, CA, AZ,  with Fl being the question mark. This it appears Trump a
Has some type of native son effect there... afterall he does employ Latinos illegally and legal ones for his resorts etc..

The white vote is in swing states like Ohio and possibly Michigan  then there's Pennsylvania.      If Trump can gin up the white vote at histrionic levels he could eek out a EV win.  Remember you dont need the popular vote to win.  Who cares if Hillary gets minorities to run up big numbers in already liberal states.  

The one area that Trump needs to sure up is white  working class women   this is where i cringe when he has these stupid fueds with megan kelly.   Seriously Trump acts childish some times when people attact him.    

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

In fact, many of my calculations show a plausible scenario where Trump loses the popular vote by 1%, but wins a comfortable electoral college victory.

Well I'm curious exactly how much of the white/black vote you're giving Trump, and what the turnout is. Trump is unlikely to do much better than Romney with blacks given what has been going on at his rallies. People are watching the news clips showing black people getting assaulted. It doesn't even matter who started it. It's perception and he might as well be George Wallace to black voters. This could even drive their turnout higher than it was in 2012.

Look, we can argue this all day, but I'm saying that you guys need to be more open to the fact that Trump will most likely alienate a lot of white voters. Your scenarios depend on him somehow not alienating those people, which ignores the dark nature of his campaign.

I just don't get the rationale that Hillary simply being Hillary will cost her so much support, yet Trump doing all the offensive, almost-evil things he's done so far costs him nothing. It makes no sense.

The idea is that TRUMP will get essentially 100% of Romney voters due to fear of Hillary, and then win over Obama voters/previous non-voters in the rustbelt. PA/OH/MI/WI all going for TRUMP is enough for him to win.

There is an alternate theory that the Republican establishment attitude towards TRUMP will translate to a significant # Romney/Hillary voters in November, allowing Hillary to win. However, no guarantee that it happens in today's polarized electorate.

[Nyvin]

One of the question marks around 2016 is will black voters turnout out like they did in 2008 and 2012 or return to lower levels like with Kerry or Gore. Black turnout in 2010 and 2014 was actually pretty good so there is some argument that Obama doesn't need to be on the ballot, but with Obama actively campaigning for Hillary it will certainly help.

Indeed. However, having Obama out there could also help Trump drive out the white vote. Obama's share of the white vote was only 39% in 2012, and odds are in 2016 America, his share of the white vote would fall further if he were on the ballot. I'm curious as to how bad Hillary might end up doing with the white vote if the Democratic Party continues to embrace urban rhetoric and dismiss white voters (IE Coal industry, Trump supporters, ect)

I can't see Hillary getting more than 34-35% among Whites ... which would be worse than Obama did. And that means something. Especially if many white DEM males are sitting out the election or rural ones who switch over to Trump.

Trump in general will do extremely well with Whites this year.

Of couse Latinos will be about 80-85% for Hillary, which might be enough to counter her Whites problem.

Problem is the Latino vote is is places already locked up.  NV, CA, AZ,  with Fl being the question mark. This it appears Trump a
Has some type of native son effect there... afterall he does employ Latinos illegally and legal ones for his resorts etc..

The white vote is in swing states like Ohio and possibly Michigan  then there's Pennsylvania.      If Trump can gin up the white vote at histrionic levels he could eek out a EV win.  Remember you dont need the popular vote to win.  Who cares if Hillary gets minorities to run up big numbers in already liberal states.  

The one area that Trump needs to sure up is white  working class women   this is where i cringe when he has these stupid fueds with megan kelly.   Seriously Trump acts childish some times when people attact him.    

Trump is doing downright awful with Latinos so far, and I honestly don't see that changing with all the plethora of negative ads Dems can run against him dealing with Latinos.  

If he isn't winning the Southwest (CO, NV, NM) and loses in Florida...I really don't think winning Ohio will matter.   Winning MI and PA are both kind of a pipe dream the Republicans have been trying for decades now, but if you wanna go down that road go ahead.

[MK]

Btw this could backfire.   This may be the one thing that stops the Gop from fighting eachother and unit behind Trump.  They hate Obama more than Hillary.

[psychprofessor]

how many times do we have to go through this "oh noes heavens falling the DEMS are losing the working class whites...'

Let Trump have the white working class - he will sink with college educated whites; women; African-American's and Hispanics.

Ask yourself, with what coalition beyond working class whites does Trump connect with, in the REPUB primary? i suppose he does relatively well with evangelicals, moderate REPUBS and the white working class. He is doing nothing to expand this coalition, and with his tone, rhetoric and behavior alienating the same groups that Hillary is courting.

How many more white working class people can you find in Ohio, PA and MI to flip him the state?

[Joe Biden 2020]

This could either be a great idea for the Democrats or could backfire in the worst way.  Trump can dig up a lot of dirt on Obama's presidency, as well.  It's one of those high risk/high reward tactics.  I look forward to seeing where this leads.

What dirt? They tried tarnishing him in 2012. Since then, there hasn't been anything worse than before 2012's election that would do any damage. Democrats have very high approval ratings of Obama, so either way it doesn't matter.

Obama has been a decent president overall and no amount of Trump blowing through his piehole will change that Bushie

I agree, President Obama has the political capital, so why not spend it wisely.  I'm just saying it comes as a high risk/high reward investment.

[MK]

how many times do we have to go through this "oh noes heavens falling the DEMS are losing the working class whites...'

Let Trump have the white working class - he will sink with college educated whites; women; African-American's and Hispanics.

Ask yourself, with what coalition beyond working class whites does Trump connect with, in the REPUB primary? i suppose he does relatively well with evangelicals, moderate REPUBS and the white working class. He is doing nothing to expand this coalition, and with his tone, rhetoric and behavior alienating the same groups that Hillary is courting.

How many more white working class people can you find in Ohio, PA and MI to flip him the state?

All of them.    Remember hes also getting people who generally dont vote.   You do realize that voter turn out for elections is not 100% ?  

[Nyvin]

In fact, many of my calculations show a plausible scenario where Trump loses the popular vote by 1%, but wins a comfortable electoral college victory.

Well I'm curious exactly how much of the white/black vote you're giving Trump, and what the turnout is. Trump is unlikely to do much better than Romney with blacks given what has been going on at his rallies. People are watching the news clips showing black people getting assaulted. It doesn't even matter who started it. It's perception and he might as well be George Wallace to black voters. This could even drive their turnout higher than it was in 2012.

Look, we can argue this all day, but I'm saying that you guys need to be more open to the fact that Trump will most likely alienate a lot of white voters. Your scenarios depend on him somehow not alienating those people, which ignores the dark nature of his campaign.

I just don't get the rationale that Hillary simply being Hillary will cost her so much support, yet Trump doing all the offensive, almost-evil things he's done so far costs him nothing. It makes no sense.

The idea is that TRUMP will get essentially 100% of Romney voters due to fear of Hillary, and then win over Obama voters/previous non-voters in the rustbelt. PA/OH/MI/WI all going for TRUMP is enough for him to win.

There is an alternate theory that the Republican establishment attitude towards TRUMP will translate to a significant # Romney/Hillary voters in November, allowing Hillary to win. However, no guarantee that it happens in today's polarized electorate.

Right...there is "fear of Hillary" but no"fear of Trump"

That's...like...100% rational thinking right there....

[Reaganfan]

If the demographic turnout remained exactly the same as 2012, but Trump slightly increased his share of white non-college votes and turned them out slightly more, he instantaneously jumps from 206 electoral votes to 253.

In fact, if Trump increases non-college white voters enough, and Hillary gets 88% with blacks, Hispanics and Asians, she still loses the election 274-264 despite winning the popular vote 49-48%.

[psychprofessor]

If the demographic turnout remained exactly the same as 2012, but Trump slightly increased his share of white non-college votes and turned them out slightly more, he instantaneously jumps from 206 electoral votes to 253.

In fact, if Trump increases non-college white voters enough, and Hillary gets 88% with blacks, Hispanics and Asians, she still loses the election 274-264 despite winning the popular vote 49-48%.

the demographic turnout will not be same in 2016 from 2012

[psychprofessor]

how many times do we have to go through this "oh noes heavens falling the DEMS are losing the working class whites...'

Let Trump have the white working class - he will sink with college educated whites; women; African-American's and Hispanics.

Ask yourself, with what coalition beyond working class whites does Trump connect with, in the REPUB primary? i suppose he does relatively well with evangelicals, moderate REPUBS and the white working class. He is doing nothing to expand this coalition, and with his tone, rhetoric and behavior alienating the same groups that Hillary is courting.

How many more white working class people can you find in Ohio, PA and MI to flip him the state?

All of them.    Remember hes also getting people who generally dont vote.   You do realize that voter turn out for elections is not 100% ?  

no evidence that Trump is registering new voters...I would argue he would be one of the weakest general election candidates in a very long time..no ground operation or data analytics; he def wouldn't self-fund and if he didn't, well, he would go back on his word about special interests and pacs - and if he did, he wouldn't be able to outraise and outspend hillary at this late date; essentially, he is going to use twitter, instagram and facebook to try and win an election...all 6.8 million of his twitter followers are waiting with baited breath

[MK]

how many times do we have to go through this "oh noes heavens falling the DEMS are losing the working class whites...'

Let Trump have the white working class - he will sink with college educated whites; women; African-American's and Hispanics.

Ask yourself, with what coalition beyond working class whites does Trump connect with, in the REPUB primary? i suppose he does relatively well with evangelicals, moderate REPUBS and the white working class. He is doing nothing to expand this coalition, and with his tone, rhetoric and behavior alienating the same groups that Hillary is courting.

How many more white working class people can you find in Ohio, PA and MI to flip him the state?

All of them.    Remember hes also getting people who generally dont vote.   You do realize that voter turn out for elections is not 100% ?  

no evidence that Trump is registering new voters...I would argue he would be one of the weakest general election candidates in a very long time..no ground operation or data analytics; he def wouldn't self-fund and if he didn't, well, he would go back on his word about special interests and pacs - and if he did, he wouldn't be able to outraise and outspend hillary at this late date; essentially, he is going to use twitter, instagram and facebook to try and win an election...all 6.8 million of his twitter followers are waiting with baited breath

He would take the RNC money I'd suspect.    Thats good enough and wouldn't hurt him amongst is supporters he can say look i self funded myself to get here so the special interest did teally have much to do with anything. 

Your right about the organization hes running a 20th century campaign minus the twitter  .

[Blair]

Pretty good idea of the Democrats,  especially with the Republicans blocking the Supreme Court confirmation without any reason.

The funny thing is, if there were an election between W and Obama today, I'd vote for W without hesitation.

You've gotta be kidding me, why?

The funny thing is, if there were an election between W and Obama today, I'd vote for W without hesitation.

When was the last time you had your head examined?

Bush was, in many ways, more effective than Obama and wasn't afraid to sometimes do things that angered his base. While Obama has been unfairly disrespected a lot, he brings some of that on to himself because people perceive him as "weak". Say what you will about Bush, but he didn't project weakness to his supporters or political opponents.

More effective? Have you heard of Iraq? Have you heard of New Orleans?

[Landslide Lyndon]

If the demographic turnout remained exactly the same as 2012, but Trump slightly increased his share of white non-college votes and turned them out slightly more, he instantaneously jumps from 206 electoral votes to 253.

In fact, if Trump increases non-college white voters enough, and Hillary gets 88% with blacks, Hispanics and Asians, she still loses the election 274-264 despite winning the popular vote 49-48%.

And of course the college educated whites and the white women will also flock to TRUMP, right?

I really can't tell what's more pathetic: your unwillingness to understand that this isn't the '60s or the fact that Tender is so blinded by his Clinton Derangement Syndrome that agrees with the nonsense you're spewing?

[Yank2133]

Biggest takeaway from this thread is that some people haven't learned a damn thing from 2012.

[Yank2133]

Pretty good idea of the Democrats,  especially with the Republicans blocking the Supreme Court confirmation without any reason.

The funny thing is, if there were an election between W and Obama today, I'd vote for W without hesitation.

You've gotta be kidding me, why?

The funny thing is, if there were an election between W and Obama today, I'd vote for W without hesitation.

When was the last time you had your head examined?

Bush was, in many ways, more effective than Obama and wasn't afraid to sometimes do things that angered his base. While Obama has been unfairly disrespected a lot, he brings some of that on to himself because people perceive him as "weak". Say what you will about Bush, but he didn't project weakness to his supporters or political opponents.

More effective? Have you heard of Iraq? Have you heard of New Orleans?

On top of that I love how he implies that Obama hasn't stood up to his own base.

[Virginiá]

All of them.    Remember hes also getting people who generally dont vote.   You do realize that voter turn out for elections is not 100% ?  

Actually voter registration stats and research into his 'coalition' show he is not really bringing many new voters to the polls - Not many more than any other candidate would. In fact, a lot of his coalition appears to be put together from existing Republican voters.

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/03/trumps-revolution-from-within/473430/

Right...there is "fear of Hillary" but no"fear of Trump"

That's...like...100% rational thinking right there....

This is exactly what I'm saying. People are completely ignoring the toxic effect Trump is having on large swathes of voters. Like somehow Hillary is worse than Trump, which may be true to some Republicans, but there are a lot of people who see Trump as a terrible human being and unfit for president.

Somehow when everyone prognosticates about Trump winning, they completely neglect to factor in how people view him. They treat him as if all Republicans would be fine with him, which is very clearly not the case, at least as far as the polls show.

If the demographic turnout remained exactly the same as 2012, but Trump slightly increased his share of white non-college votes and turned them out slightly more, he instantaneously jumps from 206 electoral votes to 253.

In fact, if Trump increases non-college white voters enough, and Hillary gets 88% with blacks, Hispanics and Asians, she still loses the election 274-264 despite winning the popular vote 49-48%.

So you're saying Trump is going to get over 60% of the white vote? That's preposterous and extremely wishful thinking. Is it possible? Sure. Is it likely? Not at all. Not unless he completely changes his entire strategy and becomes a nice person, instead of some asshole crowd agitator who uses things like banning Muslims or building walls to stay in the spotlight.

There are a couple things right now I think we can settle on. First, Hispanic turnout is going to skyrocket, as intense mobilization efforts that are already starting bear fruit, and their support will be upwards of 75% - 80% for Hillary. Against Trump, there is no credible argument that says this won't happen.

And for blacks, 11% - 12% Republican share is too generous at this point. Have you seen what Trump allows, even encourages, at his rallies? The Media has been playing videos of black people getting spit on, shoved and assaulted for months now. It doesn't matter if Trump is racist himself or if maybe the video's context is misunderstood, the only thing that matters is what it looks like.  And right now, his rallies look like something you'd see at a George Wallace rally. So no, Trump would be lucky to get Romney numbers for blacks, maybe a tiny bit more.

In a new era defined by police brutality and bias of the criminal justice system against blacks, they actually care about that stuff. Seeing Republicans at a Republican presidential rally treat black people like that goes much, much, much farther than some orangutan yelling "make america great again"

[Brittain33]

I love talk about how Trump starts with all of Romney's voters and then just adds more "white guys" on top of that to swamp Hillary.

His Pyrrhic success in the Republican primary is obscuring how completely toxic he is outside of it. Dude's got an approval rating of 35% and for every angry non-voter he pulls into his coalition, he kicks out two Republicans who'd never dream of voting for Hillary.

[Brittain33]

If the demographic turnout remained exactly the same as 2012, but Trump slightly increased his share of white non-college votes and turned them out slightly more, he instantaneously jumps from 206 electoral votes to 253.

You have to account for how far the white college vote drops for him compared to Romney, and also whether the white non-college women fleeing his misogyny cancel out the white non-college male vote going up for him.

[Nyvin]

I love talk about how Trump starts with all of Romney's voters and then just adds more "white guys" on top of that to swamp Hillary.

His Pyrrhic success in the Republican primary is obscuring how completely toxic he is outside of it. Dude's got an approval rating of 35% and for every angry non-voter he pulls into his coalition, he kicks out two Republicans who'd never dream of voting for Hillary.

2012 Republican Autopsy:  "People...we really need to improve with women and minorities..."

2016 Republican Mantra:  "Aww screw it!   Let's just go find some more angry white guys!!"

[indietraveler]

I've been thinking lately about how Obama would be involved this year. His approval rating is good enough right now to make appearances. It'll be interesting to see if he can still pull in big crowds. Unless he makes a major flub or his popularity drops, I think he helps more than hurts. He could help increase turn out by those who aren't excited about Clinton and among his core demos who supported him the last 8 years. Those against him likely have already decided against him by now and won't be voting for the democratic nominee anyway.

If anyone could deflect Trump, it's Obama. He needs to play it cool and level headed. Even if swing voters don't like some of his policies, he at least has a likable personality when he remains positive/joking around.

[RaphaelDLG]

Is an open question whether this would help Hillary with whites, but bye bye any chance of Trump improving significantly with black voters.  Not that he really had any.