In fact, many of my calculations show a plausible scenario where Trump loses the popular vote by 1%, but wins a comfortable electoral college victory.
Well I'm curious exactly how much of the white/black vote you're giving Trump, and what the turnout is. Trump is unlikely to do much better than Romney with blacks given what has been going on at his rallies. People are watching the news clips showing black people getting assaulted. It doesn't even matter who started it. It's perception and he might as well be George Wallace to black voters. This could even drive their turnout higher than it was in 2012.
Look, we can argue this all day, but I'm saying that you guys need to be more open to the fact that Trump will most likely alienate a lot of white voters. Your scenarios depend on him somehow not alienating those people, which ignores the dark nature of his campaign.
I just don't get the rationale that Hillary simply being Hillary will cost her so much support, yet Trump doing all the offensive, almost-evil things he's done so far costs him nothing. It makes no sense.
The idea is that TRUMP will get essentially 100% of Romney voters due to fear of Hillary, and then win over Obama voters/previous non-voters in the rustbelt. PA/OH/MI/WI all going for TRUMP is enough for him to win.
There is an alternate theory that the Republican establishment attitude towards TRUMP will translate to a significant # Romney/Hillary voters in November, allowing Hillary to win. However, no guarantee that it happens in today's polarized electorate.
