Obama to be extensively involved in 2016 campaign

[Nyvin]

Pretty good idea of the Democrats,  especially with the Republicans blocking the Supreme Court confirmation without any reason.

The funny thing is, if there were an election between W and Obama today, I'd vote for W without hesitation.

You've gotta be kidding me, why?

[Nyvin]

One of the question marks around 2016 is will black voters turnout out like they did in 2008 and 2012 or return to lower levels like with Kerry or Gore. Black turnout in 2010 and 2014 was actually pretty good so there is some argument that Obama doesn't need to be on the ballot, but with Obama actively campaigning for Hillary it will certainly help.

Indeed. However, having Obama out there could also help Trump drive out the white vote. Obama's share of the white vote was only 39% in 2012, and odds are in 2016 America, his share of the white vote would fall further if he were on the ballot. I'm curious as to how bad Hillary might end up doing with the white vote if the Democratic Party continues to embrace urban rhetoric and dismiss white voters (IE Coal industry, Trump supporters, ect)

I can't see Hillary getting more than 34-35% among Whites ... which would be worse than Obama did. And that means something. Especially if many white DEM males are sitting out the election or rural ones who switch over to Trump.

Trump in general will do extremely well with Whites this year.

Of couse Latinos will be about 80-85% for Hillary, which might be enough to counter her Whites problem.

I completely agree that the demographics are changing in America, but when you start losing 60-70% of white America, doesn't that spell some concern for Democrats?

Most of the whites that the Democrats are losing are in Appalachia and the South....which isn't competitive anyway outside Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia.  

Whites in the north and west coast are both pretty stable,  which is obvious since Obama won places like Wisconsin or Oregon by much bigger margins than Kerry, despite being heavily white.

[Nyvin]

One of the question marks around 2016 is will black voters turnout out like they did in 2008 and 2012 or return to lower levels like with Kerry or Gore. Black turnout in 2010 and 2014 was actually pretty good so there is some argument that Obama doesn't need to be on the ballot, but with Obama actively campaigning for Hillary it will certainly help.

Indeed. However, having Obama out there could also help Trump drive out the white vote. Obama's share of the white vote was only 39% in 2012, and odds are in 2016 America, his share of the white vote would fall further if he were on the ballot. I'm curious as to how bad Hillary might end up doing with the white vote if the Democratic Party continues to embrace urban rhetoric and dismiss white voters (IE Coal industry, Trump supporters, ect)

I can't see Hillary getting more than 34-35% among Whites ... which would be worse than Obama did. And that means something. Especially if many white DEM males are sitting out the election or rural ones who switch over to Trump.

Trump in general will do extremely well with Whites this year.

Of couse Latinos will be about 80-85% for Hillary, which might be enough to counter her Whites problem.

Problem is the Latino vote is is places already locked up.  NV, CA, AZ,  with Fl being the question mark. This it appears Trump a
Has some type of native son effect there... afterall he does employ Latinos illegally and legal ones for his resorts etc..

The white vote is in swing states like Ohio and possibly Michigan  then there's Pennsylvania.      If Trump can gin up the white vote at histrionic levels he could eek out a EV win.  Remember you dont need the popular vote to win.  Who cares if Hillary gets minorities to run up big numbers in already liberal states.  

The one area that Trump needs to sure up is white  working class women   this is where i cringe when he has these stupid fueds with megan kelly.   Seriously Trump acts childish some times when people attact him.    

Trump is doing downright awful with Latinos so far, and I honestly don't see that changing with all the plethora of negative ads Dems can run against him dealing with Latinos.  

If he isn't winning the Southwest (CO, NV, NM) and loses in Florida...I really don't think winning Ohio will matter.   Winning MI and PA are both kind of a pipe dream the Republicans have been trying for decades now, but if you wanna go down that road go ahead.

[Nyvin]

In fact, many of my calculations show a plausible scenario where Trump loses the popular vote by 1%, but wins a comfortable electoral college victory.

Well I'm curious exactly how much of the white/black vote you're giving Trump, and what the turnout is. Trump is unlikely to do much better than Romney with blacks given what has been going on at his rallies. People are watching the news clips showing black people getting assaulted. It doesn't even matter who started it. It's perception and he might as well be George Wallace to black voters. This could even drive their turnout higher than it was in 2012.

Look, we can argue this all day, but I'm saying that you guys need to be more open to the fact that Trump will most likely alienate a lot of white voters. Your scenarios depend on him somehow not alienating those people, which ignores the dark nature of his campaign.

I just don't get the rationale that Hillary simply being Hillary will cost her so much support, yet Trump doing all the offensive, almost-evil things he's done so far costs him nothing. It makes no sense.

The idea is that TRUMP will get essentially 100% of Romney voters due to fear of Hillary, and then win over Obama voters/previous non-voters in the rustbelt. PA/OH/MI/WI all going for TRUMP is enough for him to win.

There is an alternate theory that the Republican establishment attitude towards TRUMP will translate to a significant # Romney/Hillary voters in November, allowing Hillary to win. However, no guarantee that it happens in today's polarized electorate.

Right...there is "fear of Hillary" but no"fear of Trump"

That's...like...100% rational thinking right there....

[Nyvin]

I love talk about how Trump starts with all of Romney's voters and then just adds more "white guys" on top of that to swamp Hillary.

His Pyrrhic success in the Republican primary is obscuring how completely toxic he is outside of it. Dude's got an approval rating of 35% and for every angry non-voter he pulls into his coalition, he kicks out two Republicans who'd never dream of voting for Hillary.

2012 Republican Autopsy:  "People...we really need to improve with women and minorities..."

2016 Republican Mantra:  "Aww screw it!   Let's just go find some more angry white guys!!"