Obama to be extensively involved in 2016 campaign

[Reaganfan]

One of the question marks around 2016 is will black voters turnout out like they did in 2008 and 2012 or return to lower levels like with Kerry or Gore. Black turnout in 2010 and 2014 was actually pretty good so there is some argument that Obama doesn't need to be on the ballot, but with Obama actively campaigning for Hillary it will certainly help.

Indeed. However, having Obama out there could also help Trump drive out the white vote. Obama's share of the white vote was only 39% in 2012, and odds are in 2016 America, his share of the white vote would fall further if he were on the ballot. I'm curious as to how bad Hillary might end up doing with the white vote if the Democratic Party continues to embrace urban rhetoric and dismiss white voters (IE Coal industry, Trump supporters, ect)

[Reaganfan]

One of the question marks around 2016 is will black voters turnout out like they did in 2008 and 2012 or return to lower levels like with Kerry or Gore. Black turnout in 2010 and 2014 was actually pretty good so there is some argument that Obama doesn't need to be on the ballot, but with Obama actively campaigning for Hillary it will certainly help.

Indeed. However, having Obama out there could also help Trump drive out the white vote. Obama's share of the white vote was only 39% in 2012, and odds are in 2016 America, his share of the white vote would fall further if he were on the ballot. I'm curious as to how bad Hillary might end up doing with the white vote if the Democratic Party continues to embrace urban rhetoric and dismiss white voters (IE Coal industry, Trump supporters, ect)

I can't see Hillary getting more than 34-35% among Whites ... which would be worse than Obama did. And that means something. Especially if many white DEM males are sitting out the election or rural ones who switch over to Trump.

Trump in general will do extremely well with Whites this year.

Of couse Latinos will be about 80-85% for Hillary, which might be enough to counter her Whites problem.

I completely agree that the demographics are changing in America, but when you start losing 60-70% of white America, doesn't that spell some concern for Democrats?

[Reaganfan]

Indeed. However, having Obama out there could also help Trump drive out the white vote. Obama's share of the white vote was only 39% in 2012, and odds are in 2016 America, his share of the white vote would fall further if he were on the ballot. I'm curious as to how bad Hillary might end up doing with the white vote if the Democratic Party continues to embrace urban rhetoric and dismiss white voters (IE Coal industry, Trump supporters, ect)

If Obama ran for a 3rd term, he may actually get less white votes - It's possible, but that problem is most likely his own. A white non-Obama candidate going forward can probably expect slightly less than the Democratic white vote average for the past generation: 41%~, which is more than enough given the massive non-white support we will get.

But it must be noted that Obama's very low white vote national average is heavily influenced by collapsing support in the South, while his white vote averages in all the swing states/states he needed were largely OK, if not better. So the South really skews his averages.

I can't see Hillary getting more than 34-35% among Whites ... which would be worse than Obama did. And that means something. Especially if many white DEM males are sitting out the election or rural ones who switch over to Trump.

And somehow Trump is much more appealing? That makes no sense. Why does everyone conveniently ignore how much of a scumbag Trump is and how shady/terrible his history is, or how toxic his campaign has been so far? How is that not worse than Hillary? Him drawing large crowds of angry Republicans doesn't really mean anything.

After all, Mondale got like 36% or lower in 1984, yet that didn't represent the new white vote ceiling for Democrats, even though people probably said it did back then. Dukakis got only 40% of the white vote as well, but it did rebound eventually. Bill Clinton only got 39% of the white vote in 1992, but 43% in 1996 and Gore/Kerry stayed above 40%. Obama in 2008 got 43%. One election (2012) with 39% does not make it the new ceiling.

Suffice to say, Trump is not going to break even 60% of the white vote. He's too polarizing and offensive. This much should be obvious.

I completely agree that the demographics are changing in America, but when you start losing 60-70% of white America, doesn't that spell some concern for Democrats?

Only getting 40% of the white vote is perfectly manageable, esp if most of that loss is in red states. Democrats can actually stand to get even 37% - 38% if non-white vote support holds up (which it appears it will), and still win the White House. That's how fast demographics are screwing over Republicans.

It's easy to say Republicans will just somehow keep getting more of the white vote, but it ignores the sad reality that the GOP essentially wrote off an entire generation of white youth. They won't favor Republicans nearly as much as older folks do now.

I've been playing with the demographic calculator on 538, and even if Trump loses Romney's hispanic numbers and the turnout is increased overall, he keeps it extremely competitive in the electoral college due to the turnout of non-college whites. In fact, if we can surmise that Trump will do better with black voters than Romney did (you can only go up from there), even if by a small percent, Trump's electoral votes gain drastically.

In fact, many of my calculations show a plausible scenario where Trump loses the popular vote by 1%, but wins a comfortable electoral college victory.

[Reaganfan]

If the demographic turnout remained exactly the same as 2012, but Trump slightly increased his share of white non-college votes and turned them out slightly more, he instantaneously jumps from 206 electoral votes to 253.

In fact, if Trump increases non-college white voters enough, and Hillary gets 88% with blacks, Hispanics and Asians, she still loses the election 274-264 despite winning the popular vote 49-48%.