Who will win the Wisconsin Republican Primary?

[TJ in Oregon]

I don't understand why Wisconsin is supposed to be not naturally favorable turf for Trump. Could someone spell it out for me?

It's full of communitarian upper midwestern 'good governance' types who like people who are nice and don't like people who are brash. The Republican demographics tend to be more on the upper socio-economic status end of things in Wisconsin as well. The Wisconsin union voters tend to be more Democratic than in other midwestern states.

[Koharu]

I don't understand why Wisconsin is supposed to be not naturally favorable turf for Trump. Could someone spell it out for me?

It's full of communitarian upper midwestern 'good governance' types who like people who are nice and don't like people who are brash. The Republican demographics tend to be more on the upper socio-economic status end of things in Wisconsin as well. The Wisconsin union voters tend to be more Democratic than in other midwestern states.

This.

There are definitely pockets where Trump will do exceedingly well, but again, it will depend so much on turnout. I don't think Trump will do well in Ryan's stomping grounds, and there just happen to be a lot more people there than in the rural areas. But then they are also going to be less fired up to vote, I think.

[Gass3268]

While this seems logically to be a very anti-_trump state, it also seems like one where Cruz and Kasich would get in each other's ways a great deal. So another win for the tiny hands.

This is a very important point. Also here was the last Marquette poll. Should be noted that this was before Super Tuesday.

Trump 30%
Rubio 20%
Cruz 19%
Kasich 8%
Carson 8%

This is a reason to believe Cruz will win it. He should get the majority of the Rubio vote, and while Trump will have risen nationally by that point, he'll get less than his 38% nationally in Wisconsin. It should be low enough for Cruz to pull it off. Trump will do better in the Fox Cities and rurals. Cruz will do best in the MKE suburbs, where half the Republicans prefer Bernie Sanders to Trump.

We really need a new poll soon. I have a feeling that Kasich's Midwestern-Nice is going pull a big number from the Rubio folks who that Cruz is too conservative/out there. Also I assume most of Carson's vote will go to Trump.

Another interesting point about Wisconsin is that it will be the first contest on the Republican side after a two week break from this Tuesday in Arizona and Utah. That's a lot of time to campaign in the state.

[Sir Mohamed]

Lean Cruz.

[Wiz in Wis]

Trump wins narrowly. I think Trump wins around Milwaukee, Ted wins Western and Northern WI, Fox valley is split, Kasich wins Dane county.

[Gass3268]

Trump wins narrowly. I think Trump wins around Milwaukee, Ted wins Western and Northern WI, Fox valley is split, Kasich wins Dane county.

The Milwaukee suburbs, while very conservative, are very establishment conservative. Look how big they went for Romney 4 years ago. I expect Cruz to do extreamly well there, with Kasich making a decent dent. Trump will do well in the inner more blue collar suburbs (West Allis, Glendale, Greenfield, St. Francis, etc) what Republicans are left in the city itself, and probably some of the exurban cities like Sheboygan.

[Nhoj]

I did see a big Trump sticker plastered across the whole back windshield of a truck so Trump should do well in my area. More seriously I do think Trump will do well in the north. Kasich should be able to get at least as much support statewide as he did in MI and IL.

[Wiz in Wis]

Trump wins narrowly. I think Trump wins around Milwaukee, Ted wins Western and Northern WI, Fox valley is split, Kasich wins Dane county.

The Milwaukee suburbs, while very conservative, are very establishment conservative. Look how big they went for Romney 4 years ago. I expect Cruz to do extreamly well there, with Kasich making a decent dent. Trump will do well in the inner more blue collar suburbs (West Allis, Glendale, Greenfield, St. Francis, etc) what Republicans are left in the city itself, and probably some of the exurban cities like Sheboygan.

I tend to think Waukesha county gets split between money GOP backing Kasich and Jesus GOP backing Cruz, with Trump winning everyone else. I think Trump carries all 4 metro MKE counties. Cruzi might have a better shot at Washington County and Fond-du-Lac through Green Bay.