Mexico 2006

[ag]

The Regional Chambers of the Electoral Tribunal have ruled on all the challenges for the House and the Senate elections. They did annul a few hundred precincts on various irregularities, but in no case did this change the winner (even though, in one district in Mexico State the PRD lead over PAN was only about 110 votes, and in 6 more districts the winner got ahead by under 500 votes). The only change that has been announced is that one of the winning PRD candidates was ineligible to run, since he was a day too late to resign his government office (interestingly enough, it was in the above-mentioned district with the 110 vote victory margin). Fortunately, by law, becides the candidats proper the parties register "replacement candidates" for just such an occasion: in this case the PRD replacement has been declared the Congressman instead of the ineligible candidate, so the party composition of the Congress is unchanged.

The Regional Chamber decisions are still appealable to the Supreme Electoral Tribunal itself. The appeals have to be resolved by Aug. 19, I believe.

Unlike in the Congressional races, in the Presidential race the Supreme Electoral Tribunal is both the trial and the final court, whose decisions cannot be appealed. In a few hours it will hold an extremely important public session, in which it is expected that it will announce the decision on whether to do any recounts (and, if yes, the scope of these). The final rulings in the Presidential race have to be made by Aug. 31, with the winner formally declared by Sept. 6.

[ag]

Just in. A partial recount of votes in the presidential race is ordered. PRD demanded full recount, this has been rejected by the Supreme Electoral Decision. In 151 of the 300 electoral districts there will be no recount. In the remaining 149 districts there will be, if I read the reports right, a partial recount of some precincts.  The list of precincts to be recounted has not been published. The recount will proceed between the 9th and the 14th of this month - by the 14th we shall know the results. The decision cannot be appealed legally.

[ag]

The scale of the recount has been announced. They will recount  11, 839 booths, or just over 9% of the total.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What chance do you think there is of the actual result changing from that?

[ag]

What chance do you think there is of the actual result changing from that?

Not large, but not impossible. So far, it seems most of the recounts will happen in Calderon-dominated areas of the country, so this should help Lopez. He'd need about 3% net change in the booths recounted. It should also be taken into account, that, if I get it right, the decision on PAN complaints hasn't yet been taken, so there might be additional booths ordered recounted to resolve those.

[ag]

Looking at some parts of the decision it seems it is not too bad towards PRD: since most booths to be recounted are PANista, PRD should gain. Still, so far PAN, PRI and Alternativa have declared that they are in agreement with the decision, while PRD is waiting. Lopez will be speaking in about 15 minutes, apparently.

[ag]

Lopez is out with a condemnation of the Tribunal ruling.  I understand that he had to say this to be consistent, but I wonder how sincere he is.  Frankly, having looked at where the to be recounted booths are from, I am thinking  he's got it real well: unless there is a further recount order on PAN complaints, he'd get a better result change from this, than he'd get from a full recount. I do not believe it is very likely the winner would change, but the order seems to maximize the probability of a major Calderon lead shrinking (if you only recount wher PAN could have manipulated things, without doing the same where PRD could, you should expect the recount results to be particularly favorable to PRD).  If the gap shrinks substantially, it would be very hard to have the results ratified without further action.

[ag]

The Supreme Electoral Tribunal has ruled on the appeals from the lower tribunal decisions on the House and Senate elections. Only one lower tribunal decision has been reversed: the court overruled the only decision in which the lower courts changed the identity of the winner. As a reminder, this was the case of a PRD candidate who was a day too late to resign his mayoralty and therefore was ruled ineligible to run for Congress, meaning that he would have to be substituted by his back-up from the party slate.  The Tribunal decided that since he had de facto been campaigning and not in office on the day in dispute, he is OK and can take his seat in Congress.

Thus, there are no substantive changes from the district count and the distribution of seats in Congress is not affected. The decision is final and not subject to further appeals. Habemus Congress!

We still have to wait for the resolution of the presidential race. The partial recount ordered by the Tribunal is finished, though no public results have been announced due to the fact that the court has failed to rule on disputed ballots and precincts. Informally, PRD claims overwhelming irregularities and a recount net gain of at least 14 thousand votes (a bit more then one vote per precinct recounted), while PAN claims no significant irregularities and either a wash, or a small gain or loss in Calderon's lead (various PANista sources estimate the difference from the original count to be between 6000 vote shift towards Lopez and 1500 shift towards Calderon).

In either case, the shift would not be sufficient to overturn Calderon majority, even if it were replicated nationwide (as a reminder, the recount was only done in precincts where PRD specifically asked for it, which overwhelmingly where PANista-dominated and cotrolled areas; virtually no precincts were recounted in areas of PRD strength, where the latter party could actually loose votes on recount). Thus, the only hope Lopez has now is an annulment of a substantial number of precincts or of the entire election by the Tribunal - merely the full recount isn't going to help. Given the tribunal decision in the congressional races, this seems unlikely.

Lopez has already announced that he will never recognize a Tribunal ruling in favor of Calderon and that his actions of "civil disobedience" may last for years to come.

[WMS]

Lopez has already announced that he will never recognize a Tribunal ruling in favor of Calderon and that his actions of "civil disobedience" may last for years to come.

OK, Forum Lopezistas, explain this part, will ya?

[© tweed]

Lopez has already announced that he will never recognize a Tribunal ruling in favor of Calderon and that his actions of "civil disobedience" may last for years to come.

OK, Forum Lopezistas, explain this part, will ya?

I've never defended Lopez' post-election actions.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Update on The Ever Increasing Nasty-ness:

Some protesters started throwing stones and stuff at the police, who responded with tear gas and so on.

[WMS]

Lopez has already announced that he will never recognize a Tribunal ruling in favor of Calderon and that his actions of "civil disobedience" may last for years to come.

OK, Forum Lopezistas, explain this part, will ya?

I've never defended Lopez' post-election actions.

OK, fair enough from your end.

Al's news isn't exactly positive...

[ag]

Update on The Ever Increasing Nasty-ness:

Some protesters started throwing stones and stuff at the police, who responded with tear gas and so on.

Actually, some more detail. A group of protesters, headed by several PRD members of Congress (both the outgoing and incoming) tried to set up a camp blocking the entrance and exit from the House headquarters at the San Lazaro Palace. This, however, is Federal Area, so it is guarded by the Federal Preventitive Police (not the city police that generally helps them set their camps in the city on instructions from the Mayor's office).  The Federal Police got in the tow trucks to remove the cars and buses they parked blocking the entrance. A commotion ensued, in which 11 Members of Congress got hurt (though, their definition of "hurt" includes having a "nervous breakdown"; aside from a few blows, one Congressman actually, I think, had his brow cut in the scuffle). Tear gas was used. Overall, there were just a couple hundred people involved, though.

There are two interesting features of it all. First, the Federal Police has made it clear that whatever happens in the city, Federal Areas will not be blocked easily. Second, it showed how few protestors there are: in order to try to set the camp at the House, they had to remove their camps from several of the blocks they currently occupy. Now they face another problem: "while they were out" street vendors took over the blocks they had abandoned, making it impossible to reestablish the camp fully. Today El Universal estimates that the over 20 km worth of the principal avenues of the city are occupied by just 8000 protestors - the street vendors tend to have a much greater density.

[ag]

Another thing to note. One of Lopez Obrador's most important allies, former Zacatecas governor Ricardo Monreal has suggested that the PRD congressmen and senators don't get sworn into the office on Sept. 1st in protest. Fortunately, somebody had sense to look up the law: if a party boycotts the swearing in, it looses its register, meaning complete loss of public funding and of the ability to nominate candidates for any office at  any level. In any case, it seems like most of the PRD elected members are going to get sworn in, though a few might not show up.  Convergencia (a junior coalition partner) has already decided to take their seats.

[WMS]

Second, it showed how few protestors there are: in order to try to set the camp at the House, they had to remove their camps from several of the blocks they currently occupy. Now they face another problem: "while they were out" street vendors took over the blocks they had abandoned, making it impossible to reestablish the camp fully. Today El Universal estimates that the over 20 km worth of the principal avenues of the city are occupied by just 8000 protestors - the street vendors tend to have a much greater density.

This made me laugh.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Second, it showed how few protestors there are: in order to try to set the camp at the House, they had to remove their camps from several of the blocks they currently occupy. Now they face another problem: "while they were out" street vendors took over the blocks they had abandoned, making it impossible to reestablish the camp fully. Today El Universal estimates that the over 20 km worth of the principal avenues of the city are occupied by just 8000 protestors - the street vendors tend to have a much greater density.

This made me laugh.

^^^



Gotta love street vendors sometimes

[ag]

Lopez is going off an increasingly deep end. The literal interpretation of his latest announcement is that it is a proclamation of a revolution and dissolution of the existing state (he used references that in the context of Mexican history make no other interpretation possible).  His choice of words is increasingly frightening. Unless within the next few days major defections from his camp start, I will be very scared.

[WMS]

Second, it showed how few protestors there are: in order to try to set the camp at the House, they had to remove their camps from several of the blocks they currently occupy. Now they face another problem: "while they were out" street vendors took over the blocks they had abandoned, making it impossible to reestablish the camp fully. Today El Universal estimates that the over 20 km worth of the principal avenues of the city are occupied by just 8000 protestors - the street vendors tend to have a much greater density.

This made me laugh.

^^^



Gotta love street vendors sometimes

Indeed "The People Have Spoken!"

And on a more serious note...c'mon, Lopezistas (or Obradoristas), only Tweed said anything? Where's that guy with the Lopez Obrador banner in his sig? We want to hear you defend this!

[ag]

The Supreme Electoral Tribunal has ruled on the complaints, though there is still no final declaration of the results. Still, it's pretty much over. They've annuled a whole bunch of precincts, but the end result does not change much. After the annulment Calderon looses 81,080 votes, while Lopez Obrador looses 76,897 votes, with the gap shrinking only by about 4 thousand votes: from just under 244 thousand to somewhat short of 240 thousand. Of course, the other candidates also loose votes, roughly proportionately. 

What remains is the final tally certification and the winner declaration, for which the deadline is, I believe, Sept. 6. Since there are no unresolved challenges to the election remaining, there isn't much of suspence left in the legal workings.

The real interest now lies in the looser reactions. Lopez has called on his followers not to recognize the new president and any officials he'd appoint, and to elect something like a provisional head of state at a "people's conference" to be held on Nov. 20. The reaction of other PRD people is still unclear. There has been some noise at least from some of their leaders that the choice is between "the street or institutionality", with the implication that "institutionality" might be better. We'd have to wait.

[ag]

Tomorrow it will be declared officially.

It does not seem there is much doubt what will be declared, but how everyone reacts might be of interest.

[ag]

The Electoral Tribunal public session has been going for nearly 3 hours. Within about an hour they should make the final declaration. Anyway, they are nearly there: the presenting judges suggested to certify the final count, declared that Calderon is eligible to be president and denied that any allegations of electoral violations are substantial enough to annul the election. The seven judges still have to vote, but it is expected that it will be unanimous.

Just for refernce, the final count (after the annulment of precincts where the violations were found to be sufficiently significant, etc) is:

Calderon 14,916,927 votes
Lopez Obrador 14,683,096 votes
Madrazo  9,237,000? votes
Mercado 1,124,280
Campa 397,550
Write-ins 298,204

[ag]

The judges are making final speaches. 5 of the 7 have spoken - all in favor of declaring Calderon.  At this point, this can't be overturned.

[ag]

At 12:06 Central Time, the Supreme Electoral Tribunal made a unanimous (7 to none) decision to declare Calderon the president for the period of Dec. 1 2006 - Nov. 30 2012. Mexico now formally has a president elect.

Calderon will speak to the nation at 7 PM and at 9 PM. Tomorrow at 8 AM he will hold a press conference. A speach by Fox is also expected at 8:30 PM. Lopez will speak simultaneously w/ Calderon at 7 PM. Fox has formally congratulated Calderon.

[ag]

Seems like the Lopez coalition starts splintering. Convergencia (one of the two smaller parties in the coalition - with 17 House and 5 Senate seats) has recognized the tribunal ruling that proclaimed Calderon the next President. While they expressed intention to maintain the legislative coalition w/ the PRD and PT for the time being, they indicated that in the 2009 midterm elections they will run alone (though, of course, at this point this may change many times). 

The PRD and PT, though, are still refusing to recognize the result. Of course, all the other parties (including the left-of-center Alternativa) have accepted the ruling.

[ag]

Lopez has officially announced that he will not recognize Calderon's presidency. Here goes the graceful exit.

Both of them are speaking now (actually, Calderon let Lopez go first - I guess, he still hoped for a concession speech, so the speaches are mostly back to back; I think Lopez is already over, while Calderon is still being eulogized at the party headquarters).