Future West Virginia's?

[hurricanehink]

I've read how many people believe the electoral map is stable now, but I don't believe it is ever stable. One bad governor/disaster/economic crisis can turn any state around quickly. That makes me wonder, what are some possible future West Virginia's that might turn on its (recent) historic voting patterns and flip to the other party?

I use West Virginia because it was a Democratic stronghold until 1996, and since then it has become one of the strongest Republican states. It wasn't demographics that changed, just the faltering coal industry as the nation switched to be more environmentally friendly (as well as increasingly leftward shift of the Democratic Party).

IMO, one such state could be Utah. It is currently one of the most Republican states, but if the residents become disgusted by the increasingly racial tactics of the GOP, then perhaps they might re-assess. Utah is libertarian-ish, but so is Colorado and New Mexico, both democratic states now. Utah is growing at a fast clip (4th fastest as of 2015). The state is more pro-environment due to the large number of national parks. Their increasing population means they need to build up the infrastructure. Perhaps this combination will make them swing more to the Democrats.

I don't want to be one of those people who assume every state will become Democratic, so I'll provide an example on the other side: Iowa. It has consistently voted Democratic at the presidential level since 1992, but they have two Republican Senators and a Republican governor. No other Democratic state can claim that. It's growing slower than the national average. If Democrats start to push against ethanol, and the people of Iowa start resenting the immigration influx, perhaps it will become more of a Republican stronghold at the federal level.

Thoughts? Ideas?

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

I've read how many people believe the electoral map is stable now, but I don't believe it is ever stable. One bad governor/disaster/economic crisis can turn any state around quickly. That makes me wonder, what are some possible future West Virginia's that might turn on its (recent) historic voting patterns and flip to the other party?

I use West Virginia because it was a Democratic stronghold until 1996, and since then it has become one of the strongest Republican states. It wasn't demographics that changed, just the faltering coal industry as the nation switched to be more environmentally friendly (as well as increasingly leftward shift of the Democratic Party).

IMO, one such state could be Utah. It is currently one of the most Republican states, but if the residents become disgusted by the increasingly racial tactics of the GOP, then perhaps they might re-assess. Utah is libertarian-ish, but so is Colorado and New Mexico, both democratic states now. Utah is growing at a fast clip (4th fastest as of 2015). The state is more pro-environment due to the large number of national parks. Their increasing population means they need to build up the infrastructure. Perhaps this combination will make them swing more to the Democrats.

I don't want to be one of those people who assume every state will become Democratic, so I'll provide an example on the other side: Iowa. It has consistently voted Democratic at the presidential level since 1992, but they have two Republican Senators and a Republican governor. No other Democratic state can claim that. It's growing slower than the national average. If Democrats start to push against ethanol, and the people of Iowa start resenting the immigration influx, perhaps it will become more of a Republican stronghold at the federal level.

Thoughts? Ideas?

Tell President Kerry that.

[Goldwater]

I think Utah becoming Democratic would require Republicans alienating Mormons somehow, which I suppose is possible. Although I think Alaska might be a more likely contender for a Republican equivalent to West Virginia

[Virginiá]

That makes me wonder, what are some possible future West Virginia's that might turn on its (recent) historic voting patterns and flip to the other party?

In regards to Iowa - I wouldn't really call them a Democratic stronghold at all. Check out the historical legislature/state office party control stats. It's been somewhat evenly contested.

But if Iowa counts in your question, then I would say Virginia has been trending Democratic for awhile now and after 2020, it could go more solidly Democratic given the intense population changes going on. A lot of State Houses have flipped suddenly and stayed that way when the state or national political environment undergoes a major shift. Look at Alabama, Louisiana, Arkansas, North Carolina, etc in 2010 or 2012. They flipped suddenly from Democratic control to Republicans. Same for Delaware's State House in 2008.

Personally, I think Michigan may have a shot at this. I dunno when or what will set off the change, or maybe if it's already on its way, but it seems like a decent candidate.

Tell President Kerry that.

Iowa was kind of funny under Bush. In 2000, Bush lost it by literally thousands of votes, while in 2004 he won it by a slightly larger margin than he lost it by in 2000, but still within a single point.

Though, Iowa's party registration stats have been trending slightly more Republican as of late, iirc.

[windjammer]

I think Utah becoming Democratic would require Republicans alienating Mormons somehow, which I suppose is possible. Although I think Alaska might be a more likely contender for a Republican equivalent to West Virginia

[Gass3268]

Alaska seems like a good guess. Maybe Arizona in like 10 years.

[IceSpear]

Iowa and Alaska seem to be good bets, IMO. Maybe Virginia and Maine as well.

How did you forget NH?

[Virginiá]

I think it's also worth mentioning that West Virginia's shift to the GOP wasn't as sudden and rapid as one led to believe. Democrats steadily began losing seats in the legislature after Obama was elected, and eventually, in 2014, it underwent a full flip.

As you can see in the State House particularly, since 2011, Democrats began losing seats in each successive election:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_party_strength_in_West_Virginia


So with that in mind, one could argue New Hampshire is also following the same trajectory, but in the opposite direction. 2010 and 2014 may have cost Democrats the legislature/State House, but those are mostly temporary setbacks and given historical trends in other states of a similar nature, NH will continue trending blue and the legislature will return to Democrats.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_party_strength_in_New_Hampshire

Iowa and Alaska seem to be good bets, IMO. Maybe Virginia and Maine as well.

How did you forget NH?

Don't worry, after he posted, I decided to cover it for him

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

'Libertarian-ish' is a weird way to describe Utah.

[DC Al Fine]

'Libertarian-ish' is a weird way to describe Utah.

Mormonism and Libertarianism... that's like peanut butter and pickle juice.

[Former Senator Haslam2020]

Minnesota

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Republican: Iowa, Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania (wildcard: Illinois)
Democratic: New Hampshire, Nevada, Virginia, Alaska, North Carolina (wildcard: Georgia)

[P123]

Democrats=Utah/New Hampshire/Alaska
Republicans=Iowa/Pennsylvania/Ohio

[RINO Tom]

Iowa and Alaska seem to be good bets, IMO. Maybe Virginia and Maine as well.

How did you forget NH?

Because it already is less competitive than WV.

It's literally not.

[Kingpoleon]

Either AK or HI seems likely, as does MN.

[Clark Kent]

Iowa and Alaska seem to be good bets, IMO. Maybe Virginia and Maine as well.

How did you forget NH?

Because it already is less competitive than WV.

It's literally not.

How so?

Consistently close in Presidential elections. One Democratic Senator and one Republican one. One Democratic representative in the House and one Republican one. Republicans control both houses of the state legislature. But please, tell us all how New Hampshire is more solidly Democratic than Washington, DC.

[P123]

Iowa and Alaska seem to be good bets, IMO. Maybe Virginia and Maine as well.

How did you forget NH?

Because it already is less competitive than WV.

It's literally not.

How so?

Consistently close in Presidential elections. One Democratic Senator and one Republican one. One Democratic representative in the House and one Republican one. Republicans control both houses of the state legislature. But please, tell us all how New Hampshire is more solidly Democratic than Washington, DC.

Its not lol, but it is clearly tending strong Dem. Very unlikely the Republicans win their this time and if they do it would be do to a massive landslide, and the state is clearly trending in the direction of Vermont. Look at Grafton county. In 12 years or so it will likely become like Vermont.

[Clark Kent]

New Hampshire compared to the nation overall:

1960: R+7.00
1964: D+5.20 (D+12.20)
1968: R+7.48 (R+12.68)
1972: R+5.97 (D+1.51)
1976: R+13.34 (R+7.37)
1980: R+19.65 (R+6.34)
1984: R+19.49 (D+0.16)
1988: R+18.43 (D+1.06)
1992: R+4.34 (D+14.09)
1996: D+1.43 (D+5.57)
2000: R+1.79 (R+3.22)
2004: D+3.83 (D+5.62)
2008: D+2.34 (R+1.49)
2012: D+1.72 (R+0.62)

There is really no noticeable trend after the 1990s. Since 1992, it's always been within 5% of the national average.

[P123]

Nader got 4% in New Hampshire in 2000, and Bush won by 1.27%.

[Clark Kent]

Nader got 4% in New Hampshire in 2000, and Bush won by 1.27%.

This is compared to the nation as a whole. Bush lost the PV by 0.52% but won New Hampshire by 1.27%, so that adds up to New Hampshire being 1.79% more Republican than the nation as a whole in 2000.

[Clark Kent]

Regarding NH today: Closeness doesn't indicate competitiveness. The GOP's ceiling in NH is well below 50% (probably 46% or 47%, 48% if they're having a great night)

Ayotte won 60.2% in 2010.

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Then why does 538 have its elasticity at 1.28, the second-highest in the country?

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In 2008, it was closer than Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Nevada and just as close as Iowa. In 2012, it was just as close as Colorado, Pennsylvania, and Iowa, and closer than Nevada, Wisconsin, and Michigan. It was also closer than the Romney wins in Georgia, Arizona, and Missouri.

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He lost it 5.58% in a year where he lost the election, hardly "getting crushed".

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Kasich can.

[Lord_Bubbington]

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Wtf are you talking about, misandric state?

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Why is that?

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Okay, but WV was never lean Dem, it's been solid republican for a while now.

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Why not?

[Virginiá]

Okay, but WV was never lean Dem, it's been solid republican for a while now.

I'd like to assume 'WV was never lean Dem' is just bad wording, because up until 2000, West Virginia voted Democratic for president in every election since FDR, only breaking for Eisenhower's 1956 election and Nixon 1972/Reagan 1984. In addition, WV was pretty much solid Democratic at the state level from 1933 - 2015. Legislature didn't flip once until 2014.

WV only went for Bush 51% - 45% in 2000 and slightly more in 2004, which really is not solid Republican at all. Obama and his platform seems to be what really sealed the deal.

[Clark Kent]

She is a woman who ran against a man in a misandric state. Winning 80%+ of angry women gets you a big margin of victory, obviously.

...I'm done here.

[Figueira]

Iowa and Alaska seem to be good bets, IMO. Maybe Virginia and Maine as well.

How did you forget NH?

Because it already is less competitive than WV.

It's literally not.

How so?

Consistently close in Presidential elections. One Democratic Senator and one Republican one. One Democratic representative in the House and one Republican one. Republicans control both houses of the state legislature. But please, tell us all how New Hampshire is more solidly Democratic than Washington, DC.

West Virginia also has a Senator from each party, but otherwise, I agree.