Let's dispel with this fiction Trump will do relatively strong amongst blacks

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I think this is by far the most hilarious example all year of this site overthinking things and inventing ridiculous conclusions. Some people on this forum seem to think that the strongest performance by a Republican candidate amongst blacks by a Republican candidate since the Civil Rights Act, will be a guy who:

-For awhile was the most well known birther advocate in America
-Is openly endorsed by many white supremacists, and didn't immediately rebuke David Duke's endorsement
-Retweed a made up racist statistic about black homicide numbers that was originally posted by a Neo-Nazi
-Said "Maybe he should have been roughed up" about a Black Lives Matter protester.
-Actually has had his supporters beat and assault black protesters at his rallies, and has yet to condemn any of this.

I suppose one strength Trump might have is black turnout might be a bit less without Obama on the ticket, but making that up amongst Hispanics for Hillary should be a piece of cake.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Trump's blatantly racist Birther/College Transcript Crusade against Our Beloved First Black President will do him no favors running against Hillary "Wife of Bill Clinton and Secretary of State for President Obama" Clinton, who - unlike Trump - actually does have a great relationship with the Blacks.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Trump COULD have done well with AA's had he not started attacking the BLM and using the codewords like thugs, etc., and his supporters don't give him a good look in their eyes

[ElectionsGuy]

YES. He will get no more than 10% of the black vote. His whole history of birtherism and his campaign tactics will be brought up by Clinton over and over again.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The Democratic nominee won't do as well with blacks as Obama, though.

[Wiz in Wis]

The Democratic nominee won't do as well with blacks as Obama, though.

Well, that's an open question. A) Hillary is doing better with African Americans in this primary than Obama did in the last one, so let's not discount their affection for her. B) Trump.

[RaphaelDLG]

Yes, this is a great point.  Aside from any policy, it's more his notorious criticism of Obama on the one hand and the fact that Obama will campaign for Hillary (who is the wife of Bill Clinton) on the other hand.

[Ljube]

Van Jones thinks TRUMP may/will win 30% of the black vote.

[Mallow]

Van Jones thinks TRUMP may/will win 30% of the black vote.

And you think Trump has a chance in PA...

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

The Democratic nominee won't do as well with blacks as Obama, though.

Well, that's an open question. A) Hillary is doing better with African Americans in this primary than Obama did in the last one, so let's not discount their affection for her. B) Trump.

A lot of blacks in 2008 did not believe it was possible for a black to win the White House, so they went with a known quantity in the primary. the general election is something completely different.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Some people thought Corbett still had a chance and he lost by 9 not 15. PHILLY BLKS will back Clinton and seal the deal for Clinton and win the election.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

But his campaign spokeswoman is Black!

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Van Jones thinks TRUMP may/will win 30% of the black vote.

And you think Trump has a chance in PA...

And you think TX and GA are Tossups....

And you think NH is inelastic

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Van Jones thinks TRUMP may/will win 30% of the black vote.

Then he's an idiot.

[Mallow]

Van Jones thinks TRUMP may/will win 30% of the black vote.

And you think Trump has a chance in PA...

And you think TX and GA are Tossups....

Not really, that's just what the FiveThirtyEight calculator spit out at me.

[win win]

Trump-Carson would win some blacks. 15% give or take. If not that, the turnout will be lower.

Do you think blacks are going to turnout like in huge numbers they did for Obama to vote against Carson? 10% less turnout Blacks + 10% more turnout from uneducated whites would give Trump a good chance.

[Ebowed]

I have a question.

A lot of people don't seem to believe that Barack Obama is really a Christian.  Obviously many conservatives suspect that he is Muslim, but I have noticed (particularly on this forum) that liberals are quick to speculate that Obama is a secret atheist or agnostic, on the basis that his rationale for converting to Christianity (that it was the most powerful tool for social organizing within the African-American community) is blatantly non-theological, peppered with various choice statements Obama has made where he demonstrates a certain depth to his philosophical thought that is often absent from other politicians' rhetoric.

In contrast, Donald Trump is getting a big helping hand in the primaries on the virtue of his strong support among evangelicals.  (You'll note that among the true moralists, the Mormons, there is still a great degree of skepticism towards Trump.)  When Donald Trump is asked for his favorite Bible verse, everyone comes leaping to his defense because he has a right to keep that to himself.  Very well.

It's obvious to anyone that Donald Trump doesn't take religion particularly seriously, which makes me wonder - if Obama was so clearly not a Christian, when will Donald Trump be subjected to the same widespread suspicion?

Back to the thread topic, if Donald Trump is relying on an increase of African American support to get to the finish line in November, then the Democrats are in very good shape!

[Zache]

A birther who attracts white supremacists like moths to a flame will be lucky to get 9%, let alone 30% of the black vote.

A man with a rock-bottom -64 net favorability among Latinos won't make any inroads with the Hispanic community.

And Black turnout won't drop to 1996 levels just because you want it to.

If Trump wins the GE, he'll do it with the barest minimum of minority support and no scenario you try to envision will change that. Just accept it, Trump supporters.

[Virginiá]

YES. He will get no more than 10% of the black vote. His whole history of birtherism and his campaign tactics will be brought up by Clinton over and over again.

A well-liked moderate Republican who shows them respect can expect to get 10% - 12%, so I would think a blithering moron and aspiring bigot like Trump can expect half that, at best.

Trump-Carson would win some blacks. 15% give or take. If not that, the turnout will be lower.

Do you think blacks are going to turnout like in huge numbers they did for Obama to vote against Carson? 10% less turnout Blacks + 10% more turnout from uneducated whites would give Trump a good chance.

Black turnout was already trending upwards for decades, and at roughly 60% in 2004, so your math there is already off. Second, black voters who turned out for Obama aren't, and have not and will not just stop voting when Obama isn't on the ticket. Midterm turnout among black voters is higher than it used to be, which means a lot of those new voters continued voting. And lastly, that kind of sudden drop doesn't just happen. Studies show people who actually register to vote & go vote tend to continue doing it for some time, with each time voting helping perpetuate the habit.

If turnout suffers a drop because of no Obama, it will be a slight, gradual drop over several cycles and not some massive collapse of biblical proportions.

[Ljube]

Van Jones thinks TRUMP may/will win 30% of the black vote.

Then he's an idiot.

I think Van Jones knows better about who the blacks are going to vote for than you. Anyway, he said that 30% is possible, if the Democrats don't get their act together, while he said that 15% of the black vote for TRUMP is something that we should expect to happen.

[ProudModerate2]

Van Jones thinks TRUMP may/will win 30% of the black vote.

Then he's an idiot.

I think Van Jones knows better about who the blacks are going to vote for than you. Anyway, he said that 30% is possible, if the Democrats don't get their act together, while he said that 15% of the black vote for TRUMP is something that we should expect to happen.

Ljube .... You are trump trolling again.

[President Johnson]

Van Jones thinks TRUMP may/will win 30% of the black vote.

Then he's an idiot.

I think Van Jones knows better about who the blacks are going to vote for than you. Anyway, he said that 30% is possible, if the Democrats don't get their act together, while he said that 15% of the black vote for TRUMP is something that we should expect to happen.

Agreed. Double digits are possible. TRUMP will bring them jobs.

[Nyvin]

The Republicans completely failed to make any inroads at all with minorities,  Latinos, Asians, or Blacks.    Having a frontrunner that has huge support from white supremacist is probably not going to help much.   

The demographics of the General Election are probably going to drop to about 69-70% white from 72% white in 2012.   

There are more college educated whites than ever before

Fewer of the Silent generation (huge Republican supporters btw) because they're dying

More people than ever are not getting married,

The country is becoming more Urban, Rural populations are declining

Every possible demographic shift I see on the table favors Democrats except this constant conservative mantra of "oooo all these white people are really pissed off!  They're gonna have turnout like never before....and more blacks will vote for us too because.....they will!"

[Fuzzy Bear]

Trump will perform with black voters about the same as any other GOP candidate.  No more, no less.

As for criticizing BLM:  Trump is right here.  BLM goes way beyond the legitimate issues of racial profiling and undue police brutality due to racial bias; they actively disrupt public events and assert, essentially, that people have some sort of legal right to resist a lawful arrest.  Trump is on the side of "law and order" here in the sense that he is asserting that the disruption of campaign events by "protesters" is, in actuality, disturbing the peace, and he's right.  

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Arguments in this thread in favor of Trump doing so well with blacks:

-The blacks love Trump!
-Trump will bring them jobs!
-some guy said Trump would perform so well amongst blacks!

Post trying to debunk my points:

None

Trump will perform with black voters about the same as any other GOP candidate.  No more, no less.

As for criticizing BLM:  Trump is right here.  BLM goes way beyond the legitimate issues of racial profiling and undue police brutality due to racial bias; they actively disrupt public events and assert, essentially, that people have some sort of legal right to resist a lawful arrest.  Trump is on the side of "law and order" here in the sense that he is asserting that the disruption of campaign events by "protesters" is, in actuality, disturbing the peace, and he's right.  

Except what Trump said goes far beyond criticizing their conduct.