My prediction for a Clinton vs. Trump race
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Author Topic: My prediction for a Clinton vs. Trump race  (Read 4248 times)
Nym90
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« Reply #25 on: March 19, 2016, 09:10:41 AM »
Based on the margins of victory for Clinton in each state, this would be the most plausible Trump victory map, a 273-265 victory without Florida or Virginia:
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Torie
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« Reply #26 on: March 19, 2016, 10:00:43 AM »
Impressive work Nym. I am not sure Trump will do as well as you posit however, if the polls hold that Trump will be losing 20% of the GOP vote. That is a big defection percentage, particularly with but 7% of the Democrats going for Trump as a rather anemic offset.
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SingingAnalyst
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« Reply #27 on: March 19, 2016, 10:03:54 AM »
Quote from: #TheShadowyAbyss on March 03, 2016, 08:28:29 PM
NC is going Dem as much as PA is going GOP
I wouldn't be at all surprised if Clinton wins NC against Trump. She may even get as high or a higher percentage in NC than in PA.
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MyRescueKittehRocks
JohanusCalvinusLibertas
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« Reply #28 on: March 19, 2016, 10:23:15 AM »
It's not gonna be Trump v Clinton.
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Skye
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« Reply #29 on: March 19, 2016, 10:34:51 AM »
Quote from: Nym90 on March 19, 2016, 09:10:41 AM
Based on the margins of victory for Clinton in each state, this would be the most plausible Trump victory map, a 273-265 victory without Florida or Virginia:


Wow, I find it so hard to believe he could win by getting WI and PA instead of Florida.
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Ljube
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« Reply #30 on: March 19, 2016, 10:54:37 AM »
Quote from: yeah_93 on March 19, 2016, 10:34:51 AM
Wow, I find it so hard to believe he could win by getting WI and PA instead of Florida.

Me too. I think it would be far easier for him to win Michigan instead of Wisconsin.
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indietraveler
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« Reply #31 on: March 19, 2016, 11:02:48 AM »
I could see VA swinging far enough left if Trump is the nominee to where it won't even be a swing state. I'm sure he'll run up his margin in rural parts of the state, but how much worse does he do in the DC burbs than Romney?
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #32 on: March 19, 2016, 11:49:05 AM »
The one candidate that would duplicate the Romney map is Trump due to his poor standing in Appalachian. This will probably wind up being the result
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sg0508
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« Reply #33 on: March 19, 2016, 11:50:53 AM »
If the election were today, the map of '12 would be very close to repeating itself this time around.  I'm interested in seeing if Clinton could at all, narrow the margin in Arkansas.  I can't see Trump making a dent in Colorado, Virginia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and all the other key states that driven each election now. 
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Nym90
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« Reply #34 on: March 20, 2016, 03:36:31 PM »
Quote from: Ljube on March 19, 2016, 10:54:37 AM
Quote from: yeah_93 on March 19, 2016, 10:34:51 AM
Wow, I find it so hard to believe he could win by getting WI and PA instead of Florida.

Me too. I think it would be far easier for him to win Michigan instead of Wisconsin.

The loss of so much more of the hispanic vote is the best explanation for Trump's poor Florida showing, whereas Wisconsin and Pennsylvania have many more non college educated whites. It's certainly possible, though, that Trump alienates Mexicans and other Latinos moreso than Cubans.

Michigan has been more Democratic than Wisconsin for a while, and in particular has more black voters, who I assumed will remain at 2012 levels of Dem voting due to Trump being the GOP nominee.
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trickmind
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« Reply #35 on: March 20, 2016, 03:49:39 PM »

Yes it is.
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SingingAnalyst
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« Reply #36 on: March 20, 2016, 06:59:45 PM »
Quote from: Ljube on March 19, 2016, 10:54:37 AM
Quote from: yeah_93 on March 19, 2016, 10:34:51 AM
Wow, I find it so hard to believe he could win by getting WI and PA instead of Florida.

Me too. I think it would be far easier for him to win Michigan instead of Wisconsin.
I can't see Trump winning MI, but I can see him winning Macomb County!
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