Do Democrats have a Red Wall in the EC?

[Pragmatic Conservative]

The way I see it, even if the GOP wins the pv by 1% they still probably win the EC, states considered lean D by some  like Virginia or NH probably swing Republican in a GOP pv Victory. Even Wisconsin, and or Minnesota probably swing GOP in a 3% pv Victory for Republicans. While States such as California or New York will go Democrat  unless their is a GOP landslide,this is counter balanced by many reliably safe GOP States such as Utah, Oklahoma, Alabama and Texas. I also see a similar equivalent margin of victory needed by either party to add states such as Michigan (for the GOP) or Georgia (Democrats) to their column. Hence I do not see any real structural advantage for either party.

[MT Treasurer]

In Atlas Democrats' fantasy world? Yes.
In reality? No.

[Adam Griffin]

There have been simulations that show that in a close national PV contest, the Democrats have about 10x the chance of winning the EC while losing the PV as the Republicans. So if Dems have a 0.5% chance of winning the EC while losing the PV by 1 point, the Republicans only have a 0.05% chance of doing the same. This is of course built on the political geography of the past decade or so. Even if this were to have applied in the past, the GOP has won the EC while losing the PV 4 times; Democrats have won the EC while losing the PV 0 times. The (potential) advantage obviously is not permanent.

[Bojack Horseman]

Bush 43 won by turning the entire south red, plus picking up Ohio and at least one previously blue state. In 2000, that was New Hampshire. In 2004, it was Nevada, New Mexico, and Iowa. So many of my fellow Democrats have been lulled into a false sense of security because Virginia is trending blue, as well as Nevada, but as others have reiterated, don't count your chickens until they hatch.

[Nyvin]

The idea would be as the Nation continues to shift demographically, the majority of those shifts favor the Democrats,  and states that were once Republican become competitive, states that were once competitive now lean Democrat, etc.

The primary trends that we see are probably the following:

Minority populations rising faster than White populations

Nation becoming more urban and rural population in decline, big cities among fastest growing areas

Nation becoming less religious, number of self-identified atheist or non-religious continues to rise

Fewer people getting married

Larger college educated population

All of those demographic shifts seem to favor Democrats a lot more than Republicans.   As long as the current political allignment stays steady (which it certainly seems to be!!) the trend of Republican states becoming competitive and competitive states becoming Democratic will probably continue.  

This becomes all the more true with the entire idea behind the blue wall:   The Republicans have not flipped any Dem state to become competitive in the last 4 elections, but the Democrats have flipped a number of Republican states to become competitive recently.  

[MT Treasurer]

^The problem with your theory is that if the demographics are changing, they're not only changing in the swing states, but also in the solid blue states (CA, NY, MD, OR, WA, ...) and the red states (GA, TX, ...). Republicans have pretty much maxed out their support in the red states already. Republicans winning the popular vote but losing in the electoral college would be pretty much impossible nowadays.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

The idea would be as the Nation continues to shift demographically, the majority of those shifts favor the Democrats,  and states that were once Republican become competitive, states that were once competitive now lean Democrat, etc.

The primary trends that we see are probably the following:

Minority populations rising faster than White populations

Nation becoming more urban and rural population in decline, big cities among fastest growing areas

Nation becoming less religious, number of self-identified atheist or non-religious continues to rise

Fewer people getting married

Larger college educated population

All of those demographic shifts seem to favor Democrats a lot more than Republicans.   As long as the current political allignment stays steady (which it certainly seems to be!!) the trend of Republican states becoming competitive and competitive states becoming Democratic will probably continue.  

This becomes all the more true with the entire idea behind the blue wall:   The Republicans have not flipped any Dem state to become competitive in the last 4 elections, but the Democrats have flipped a number of Republican states to become competitive recently.  

This also assumes both Parties Platforms will remain the same. If Party Platforms shift like they have before,( which I assume they will) then demographic advantages in certain states may favor another party. Look what happened to the South or Vermont and California. At one point in time, people would be shocked to hear the South votes reliably GOP, and Vermont and California are among the safest Democratic States in the Country.

[The Other Castro]

Based on recent events, trends, and history, the Atlas Red Wall is now NH, VA, UT, and ID while the Atlas Blue Wall is now CO, MI, OH, and PA.

[Virginiá]

The idea would be as the Nation continues to shift demographically, the majority of those shifts favor the Democrats,  and states that were once Republican become competitive, states that were once competitive now lean Democrat, etc.

The primary trends that we see are probably the following:

Minority populations rising faster than White populations

Nation becoming more urban and rural population in decline, big cities among fastest growing areas

Nation becoming less religious, number of self-identified atheist or non-religious continues to rise

Fewer people getting married

Larger college educated population

All of those demographic shifts seem to favor Democrats a lot more than Republicans.   As long as the current political allignment stays steady (which it certainly seems to be!!) the trend of Republican states becoming competitive and competitive states becoming Democratic will probably continue.  

This becomes all the more true with the entire idea behind the blue wall:   The Republicans have not flipped any Dem state to become competitive in the last 4 elections, but the Democrats have flipped a number of Republican states to become competitive recently.  

This also assumes both Parties Platforms will remain the same. If Party Platforms shift like they have before,( which I assume they will) then demographic advantages in certain states may favor another party. Look what happened to the South or Vermont and California. At one point in time, people would be shocked to hear the South votes reliably GOP, and Vermont and California are among the safest Democratic States in the Country.

That's right. However, Obama's liberal platform basically chased away any states that would be put off by such policies. At this point, Democrats are probably where Republicans were in 1968, where their agenda aligned more closely with a growing majority of the population. Democrats hold massive support from all non-white voters and Millennials, with much better margins among white Millennials, so basically the fastest growing parts of the electorate. Republicans went on to win 5 out of 6 presidential elections between 1968 - 1988 because Republicans appealed to a larger majority of people.

But eventually at some point in the future, Democrats will find themselves out of touch with the people, and the cycle starts again.

[Kingpoleon]

No(Not OC)

[This account no longer in use.]

DEMS and MADAM CLINTON and PEREZ AND CASTOR BROTHERS havethe 272 freiwal, new sens will be DUckworth FEINGOLD CCM , Hassen Murphy McGINTY and Blue Dogg STRICKLAND, populist VAN HOLLEN  and Kamalla Harris

[IceSpear]

Yes. Even if Republicans win the popular vote by 98 points, the 272 friewal shall stand strong.

[RaphaelDLG]

On the Congressional district level, the democrats "waste" a lot of their votes by packing them into urban congressional districts with 70%+ democrats that give you one seat whether or not you win by a 50 point margin or a 5 point margin.

On the State level, the republicans waste a lot of their votes by running up the margins in the south and plains states (states give you your same # of electoral votes regardless of if you win 55-45 or 70-30), California and New York aside.

This EC advantage is due to the interactions of platform and demography.  If the Republicans adopt a more populist, secular, left-wing (but still conservative) platform, perhaps this EC advantage will change.