Updated Senate rankings

[BuckeyeNut]

Not going to bother listing safe races.

Likely D: CO
Lean D: IL, WI
Toss-Up: FL, NH, NV, OH,
Lean R: AZ, NC, PA
Likely R: MO, IA, IN

Theoretically, I guess, that means as many as 12 pickups in an absolute landslide. I'd assume six, but not necessarily in the predictable way of carrying the 2 Lean D + 4 Toss-Ups.

[JMT]

Most likely to flip:

1. Illinois
2. Wisconsin
3. Florida
4. New Hampshire
5. Ohio
6. Pennsylvania
7. Nevada
8. North Carolina
9. Colorado
10. Missouri
11. Arizona
12. Indiana
13. Iowa

The rest of the seats seem completely safe to me. I changed the order of some races compared to my last ranking, and added Iowa due to the recruitment of Patty Judge and the ongoing battle about the Supreme court vacancy (but ultimately I expect Grassley to hold on). Some of these are subject to change with time of course, or due to the results of primaries. For Florida, I'm assuming Murphy is the nominee (if Grayson wins the nomination, Florida moves way down on the list). And for Nevada, I'm assuming Joe Heck wins the GOP nomination (if Sharron Angle somehow pulls off a primary win, this race will also move way down the list).

[PAK Man]

Alabama - Safe R
Alaska - Safe R
Arizona - Leans R
Arkansas - Safe R
California - Safe D
Colorado - Likely D
Connecticut - Safe D
Florida - Tossup
Georgia - Safe R
Hawaii - Safe D
Idaho - Safe R
Illinois - Tossup (I'm still not convinced Kirk is toast yet. The guy always finds a way to hold on)
Indiana - Likely R
Iowa - Likely R
Kansas - Safe R
Kentucky - Likely R
Louisiana - Likely R
Maryland - Safe D
Missouri - Likely R
Nevada - Tossup
New Hampshire - Tossup
New York - Safe D
North Carolina - Leans R
North Dakota - Safe R
Ohio - Tossup
Oklahoma - Safe R
Oregon - Safe D
Pennsylvania - Leans R
South Carolina - Safe R
South Dakota - Safe R
Utah - Safe R
Vermont - Safe D
Washington - Safe D
Wisconsin - Leans D

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Pa isn't lean R  McGinty is statistically tied with Toomey

[BuckeyeNut]

McGinty has never proved herself to be a good candidate.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

And right winger Toomey can win in a midterm but Black turnout in Philly will be enough to toss him out.

[henster]

I don't really feel confident about Strickland, he doesn't seem to be a good fundraiser and his Gov record seems to be a net negative for him. The Rs will play ads over and over of him of the job losses when he was Gov which was inevitable. I still feel Tim Ryan would've been a better bet here.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems are focused on NH, FL, IL, CO & NV. Pa & OH are competetive though and Dems cross the 50 seat threshold with Pa. Ohio is the backup should Grayson be nominated in  FL. That was the strategy. But with Trump 6-7 seats is plausible, with Grassley losing.

[JMT]

McGinty has never proved herself to be a good candidate.

I don't agree with that, she did manage to get the backing of the entire democratic establishment, won a 4 candidate democratic primary by 10 percentage points, and has significantly narrowed the margin in General Election polling against Toomey.

[Attorney General & Senator Dwarven Dragon]

She only got the backing of the D establishment because they all have old grudges against Sestak. It had nothing to do with her as a candidate - the D establishment started complaining about running Sestak before she entered the race and would have endorsed Fetterman had she not entered.

[BuckeyeNut]

What Wulfric said.

I don't really feel confident about Strickland, he doesn't seem to be a good fundraiser and his Gov record seems to be a net negative for him. The Rs will play ads over and over of him of the job losses when he was Gov which was inevitable. I still feel Tim Ryan would've been a better bet here.

Strickland's not the fundraiser Portman is, but it doesn't matter too much. Democrats always get significantly outspent in Ohio. See: Brown in '12. So long as he can keep pace, he'll be okay. And Warren's done a lot of fundraising for him. Biden's done some, as have other bigwigs. He'll be okay.

Strickland's gubernatorial record was actaually fairly good, in hindsight. Tops in job growth in education toward the end. People are also more understanding now that the entire country was hurting, and it wasn't Strickland who crashed the stock market.

Meanwhile, Portman's entire reputation as a moderate is crashing down around him, and his exp. as Trade Represenative is going to hurt this cycle.

Ryan is holding off on a statewide bid so he can run for Governor in 2018.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Strickland, Murphy, Feingold, Duckworth & Cortez-Masto are our strongest recruits. If Kasich was on the ballot or Jeb or Rubio he would have lost.

[BuckeyeNut]

What's really funny is how no one's talking about Kentucky. I remember late 2015/very early 2016, Roll Call and the rest thought Rand was endangering his Senatorial re-election prospects.

I suppose Jim Gray won't out-perform Mongiardo, but KY sure got safe fast.

[Mehmentum]

Lean D: IL, WI.
Tossup/Tilt D: NV, CO, PA, NH, FL
Tossup/Tilt R: OH, NC.
Lean R: AZ, IA, MO, IN, GA.

[Attorney General & Senator Dwarven Dragon]

What's really funny is how no one's talking about Kentucky. I remember late 2015/very early 2016, Roll Call and the rest thought Rand was endangering his Senatorial re-election prospects.

I suppose Jim Gray won't out-perform Mongiardo, but KY sure got safe fast.

After McConnell got the first real landslide of his career in 2014 (he wasn't seriously challenged in 2002) and Bevin won so big that he pulled across the republican auditor candidate and almost pulled across the republican attorney general candidate and the very weak republican SOS candidate on his coattails, D's aren't winning Kentucky, barring a Kansas-esque situation where the Governor comes into the election very unpopular - and even then, a big wave could ruin it.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ohio is a tossup and Pa is lean R I agree Toomey & Grassley are relatively safe. 

[Gass3268]

 

[Attorney General & Senator Dwarven Dragon]

Iowa is not a Tossup. Grassley isn't losing.

[Heisenberg]

Iowa is not a Tossup. Grassley isn't losing.

Neither is AZ, btw. But keep on dreaming, Democrats!

Here are my updated rankings:

I agree 100%, except Missouri should be the same color as Indiana, IMO. Florida may even tilt Republican if the Murphy-Bera scandal develops further, and his opponents attack him for it.

[publicunofficial]

Safe D:
California (OPEN)
Connecticut (Blumenthal)
Hawaii (Schatz)
Maryland (OPEN)
New York (Schumer)
Oregon (Wyden)
Washington (Murray)
Vermont (Leahy)

Likely D:
Colorado (Bennet)

Lean D:
Illinois (Kirk)
Wisconsin (Johnson)

Toss-Up:
Florida (OPEN)
Nevada (OPEN)
New Hampshire (Ayotte)
Ohio (Portman)
Pennsylvania (Toomey)

Lean R:
Arizona (McCain)
Missouri (Blunt)
North Carolina (Burr)

Likely R:
Indiana (OPEN)
Iowa (Grassley)

Safe R:
Alabama (Shelby)
Alaska (Murkowski)
Arkansas (Boozman)
Georgia (Kingston)
Idaho (Crapo)
Kansas (Moran)
Kentucky (Paul)
Louisiana (OPEN)
Oklahoma (Lankford)
North Dakota (Hoeven)
South Carolina (Scott)
South Dakota (Thune)
Utah (Lee)

[Gass3268]

Iowa is not a Tossup. Grassley isn't losing.

By that logic Pennsylvania is Lean R, lolno!

[Attorney General & Senator Dwarven Dragon]

Uh, Iowa and Pennsylvania are two completely different races. Where states stand presidentally /=/ where states stand senatorially. Grassley has been viewed as much safer than Toomey for this whole cycle and that continues to be the case. And in case you weren't aware, the Garland thing is now either a distant memory or an asset to all but highly-informed liberal voters, which are a clear minority in America, so don't try using that.

[Gass3268]

Uh, Iowa and Pennsylvania are two completely different races. Where states stand presidentally /=/ where states stand senatorially. Grassley has been viewed as much safer than Toomey for this whole cycle and that continues to be the case. And in case you weren't aware, the Garland thing is now either a distant memory or an asset to all but highly-informed liberal voters, which are a clear minority in America, so don't try using that.

Nope, he only had easy until he decided on go hardball on Garland. Need to see new polling since he went off the rails before labeling this anything other than a tossup.

[Attorney General & Senator Dwarven Dragon]

Uh, Iowa and Pennsylvania are two completely different races. Where states stand presidentally /=/ where states stand senatorially. Grassley has been viewed as much safer than Toomey for this whole cycle and that continues to be the case. And in case you weren't aware, the Garland thing is now either a distant memory or an asset to all but highly-informed liberal voters, which are a clear minority in America, so don't try using that.

Nope, he only had easy until he decided on go hardball on Garland. Need to see new polling since he went off the rails before labeling this anything other than a tossup.

Uh, what evidence do you have that Iowa voters care about Garland enough that they're going to go from loving Grassley to hating Grassley based on a single-issue reasoning despite the fact that even known liberal outpost huffington post has stopped talking about the issue? Heck, I even saw an article while searching around the other day where some liberal columnist was whining over a significant number of paragraphs about the media's ignorance of the issue. No, all that's happening here is your use of your known liberal bias to apply the most optimist scenario possible, when everything that exists points to the race still being Likely or Safe R.

I don't agree with the obstruction and would vote to confirm Garland, but the fact is the issue is dead and conservatives have won. All the national democrats got out of it was getting Patty Judge into the race, who worked for the unpopular Culver administration and might not even win the D primary anyways (the state party is in the tank for State Sen. Robb Hogg). Maybe it comes up again if TRUMP appears to be losing in a landslide in September, but odds are that's not happening since we are a highly polarized electorate. The right approach, used by every major predictor out there, is to never assume a senate race has suddenly plunged from Safe R to Toss-Up unless you have indisputable evidence. What you're doing is assuming such a plunge has happened for as long as possible, and it makes your predictions look worse, not better.

[Kingpoleon]

Likely D: WI
Lean D: CO
Tilt D: FL
Toss-Up: NH, NV
Tilt R: IN, MO, OH, PA
Lean R: AZ, NC
Likely R: AK, IA