What Congressmen are done for because of Trump?

[they don't love you like i love you]

Robert Dold
Cresent Hardy
Mike Coffman
Martha McSally

Any other Republicans in district where Trump is clearly going to be insanely toxic?

[Ebsy]

I think we should start looking at the House Seats with lots of Mormons as well. If they simply just don't vote or shift a bit to the Democrats, it really changes a lot of calculations.

NV-3, 4
UT-4
MT-AL
WA-8, 5 and 3 possibly?
CO-3, 6
AZ-2
NM-2
CA-21
ID-2

[ElectionsGuy]

I don't know about McSally, actually. Its a Romney district (barely) and he's probably going to do good in her district. But continuing:

Barbara Comstock (VA-10)
Carlos Curbelo (FL-26)
Will Hurd (TX-23, >70% Hispanic)
John Mica (FL-07, redrawn in very close district in Orlando suburbs)
John Katko (NY-24)
Bruce Poliquin (ME-02)
Jeff Denham (CA-10)
David Valadao (CA-21, >70% Hispanic)

In addition to this, you'll probably have candidates that might lose open seats due to Trump, I'm thinking suburban seats in places like Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. I'm trying to determine if any of the 2014 elected New York R's are vulnerable (Zeldin, Donovan, Stefanik, Reed, etc.) but its tricky because Trump will probably do very well in New York. Also, your candidates who are screwed to begin with (Guinta, Blum, Hardy, etc.). Mia Love might have a hard time now that I think of it, especially if her opponent really connects her to Trump over and over again.

[MT Treasurer]

Barbara Comstock (VA-10)
Bruce Poliquin (ME-02)

Those two are hardly "done for". In fact, I'd say they're both still favored to win reelection.

[ElectionsGuy]

Barbara Comstock (VA-10)
Bruce Poliquin (ME-02)

Those two are hardly "done for". In fact, I'd say they're both still favored to win reelection.

Not sure about Poliquin, Comstock can certainly ride over Trump, but there's no doubt he's toxic in the district. NoVa probably has to be the most anti-Trump region in the entire country. I answered the question more along the lines of 'which congressman are much more vulnerable because of Trump?'.

[Mr. Morden]

Are some types of districts more likely to hurt Trump specifically, but have less of an impact downballot?  For example, if part of the reason why Mormons don't like Trump is because of his personal style, then they may be more likely to ticket split, and still vote GOP downballot.  Whereas in districts with Hispanics, if Trump on the ballot causes a bunch of new voters to register and show up at the polls for the first time, that's going to help the Dems downballot as well.

There's also the fact that in "disgruntled Republican districts", the potential entry of a 3rd party conservative candidate could save the GOP from disaster downballot.  Whereas, again, in a district where Trump energizes Democratic voters or encourages new registrations, that's not going to help.

[Bismarck]

I think Poliquin will survive. One I haven't seen mentioned is Rod Blum, IA-01. He's fairly independent and might survive in a neutral environment but I think he has no prayer now.

[Kingpoleon]

Hardy is a very strong candidate. He has two main opponents, Kihuen and Flores. Flores is a Reid Hispanic, as he worked for Reid in his younger days and now is the "establishment" candidate. Lucy Flores is a Sanders Hispanic, and so night be able to get a new Nevada coalition of young people, Hispanics, and females. The Reid machine will make this a nasty primary fight.

However, Hardy won by three points against a young incumbent in a D+4 district. I'd say that's impressive in a year Republicans only won by five points, at the U. S. House level. As long as he can get Sandoval to campaign for him, which the Governor could not do much in 2014 for obvious reasons, I'd say Hardy will win. Flores is able to take some of his coalition, but she could also drive up his conservative base's turnout. Combined with any and most new voters voting for Trump, I will say that only Flores could beat him, but only Kihuen could destroy both Flores's and Hardy's political futures, even if he can't win the general.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Let's be real: We have no actual idea how TRUMP would fare in a general, and we also have no idea how successful republican efforts to get voters to disconnect an imploding TRUMP from the rest of the party would be. Those predicting DEMISE FOR ALL R'S!!! YAHOO!!!", should remember that the 1972 Nixonslide and the 1988 bushslide did not result in any large decline for the party losing the presidency in either house of congress.