Map of Countywide Elected Officials, 2011-2015

[publicunofficial]

Are most of these Democrats probably as conservative as Republicans, or do they hang onto some vestiges of their party's stances?

I imagine in a lot of small counties partisan politics doesn't really apply. It's all about stances on fixing potholes and changing business ordinances and such.

[smoltchanov]

Are most of these Democrats probably as conservative as Republicans, or do they hang onto some vestiges of their party's stances?

I imagine in a lot of small counties partisan politics doesn't really apply. It's all about stances on fixing potholes and changing business ordinances and such.

Probably - yes. Philosophically most of them, are, probably, conservative, but hardly strictly ideologically...

[Adam Griffin]

Are most of these Democrats probably as conservative as Republicans, or do they hang onto some vestiges of their party's stances?

It's a mixed bag for the most part. Some of them are dyed-in-the-wool Democrats who (regardless of personal beliefs) still vote straight-ticket Democratic - though they won't necessarily advertise that.

Others are those who are merely opportunists, running as Democrats because political gravity has held on for so long with respect to Democratic primary influence (see below) and will continue to do so until/unless they're forced to flip, which they'll do without regret. Some of those opportunists are in a position where they would absolutely love to flip, but they believe that they cannot win a GOP primary even as an incumbent after they make the flip, so they continue to take their chances as Democrats.

Another group are people who you'd most aptly identify as "Dixiecrats" or legitimate independents: they're conservative and their voting records reflect that (straight-ticket GOP in presidential primaries and straight Dem in local/state primaries; this behavior often crosses over to the opportunists as well, so nobody can attack them for voting for national Democrats in campaigns).

If the Democratic Party brand is so irrevocably broken in the rural South, then why do Democrats still do well at the county level in states like Mississippi?  I think Griff is largely right with his analysis to some extent concerning blind hatred for the Dems, but I do find it odd that many of those folks still vote Democratic at some level, leading me to think that Democrats could revive in those parts at some point.

The power of incumbency is a terribly mighty thing to behold. A lot of these office-holders have been in office for decades (keep in mind that for a variety of reasons, a lot of Deep South Dems in decades past would get elected to office at shockingly young ages); they're "good people" and everybody knows them. At the local level with regard to state parties, you're dealing with a "every man for himself" sort of situation with respect to political party organization and operation in the Deep South, which is seeded with far too many counties. These areas were never competitive, and the "breakthrough" or dominance at the state level for the Republican Party in many cases has only occurred in the past 10 years or so. Resources haven't flowed in here, and because time largely stands still, a compounding series of events prevents Republicans from doing well.

Think about it this way (putting it in quotes so it's condensed in size):

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What do you think is going to happen in that situation by default? The same thing that has always happened.

Though I will say (and there are literally hundreds of examples around the South), there have been and will come times where a series of factors line up perfectly: a GOP county party gets organized, outside assistance begins to come in to some degree, a slate of good candidates are recruited to run as Republicans, and the collective voter hive-mind suddenly snaps and realizes that the Dem primary doesn't have to be the general election. In almost every case where that series of factors has occurred, the Dems are almost or universally purged from local elected office within a matter of 2-4 years (excluding the ones who negotiate with the GOP to defect to save their hides).

[VPH]

Even in Kansas, there are Democrats elected to township and county positions in Ellis, Sumner, Cowley, Marshall, counties etc. All old New Deal counties, where Democrats have not won presidential elections in ages, but where there's still downballot appeal.

[smoltchanov]

^ Even more so in the South. Though realignment happens (much more slowly then on federal , and even state level) even locally. Recently i looked at Holmes county, Florida,  election results page (this is very white and extremely conservative county in North Florida, where Hillary didn't get even 10% of vote, but registration is only slightly Republican). According to data gathered by. Pres. Griffin, local Democrads still hold a number of local offices in this county. But, looking at 2016 results, i couldn't find a single Democratic victory. Some candidates managed to surpass 40% plank (much better then national party candidates), but still - ....

On the other hand - Liberty county (not far from Holmes) still has about 75-20% Democratic registration, still elects only Democrats (and NPA's) for local offices, AND gave Hillary less then 20% nevertheless....

[VPH]

^ Even more so in the South. Though realignment happens (much more slowly then on federal , and even state level) even locally. Recently i looked at Holmes county, Florida,  election results page (this is very white and extremely conservative county in North Florida, where Hillary didn't get even 10% of vote, but registration is only slightly Republican). According to data gathered by. Pres. Griffin, local Democrads still hold a number of local offices in this county. But, looking at 2016 results, i couldn't find a single Democratic victory. Some candidates managed to surpass 40% plank (much better then national party candidates), but still - ....

On the other hand - Liberty county (not far from Holmes) still has about 75-20% Democratic registration, still elects only Democrats (and NPA's) for local offices, AND gave Hillary less then 20% nevertheless....

Yeah, in some Kansas counties it's happened over time. Cherokee County (which votes kinda like lots of Appalachian Counties), was Democratic locally for a long time. Now, though, Democrats struggle to even win downballot. Minus in Weir and Scammon, two tiny former mining towns where even national Democrats won until very recently. Weir has a 20 some year old Democratic mayor.

[jimrtex]

^ Even more so in the South. Though realignment happens (much more slowly then on federal , and even state level) even locally. Recently i looked at Holmes county, Florida,  election results page (this is very white and extremely conservative county in North Florida, where Hillary didn't get even 10% of vote, but registration is only slightly Republican). According to data gathered by. Pres. Griffin, local Democrads still hold a number of local offices in this county. But, looking at 2016 results, i couldn't find a single Democratic victory. Some candidates managed to surpass 40% plank (much better then national party candidates), but still - ....

On the other hand - Liberty county (not far from Holmes) still has about 75-20% Democratic registration, still elects only Democrats (and NPA's) for local offices, AND gave Hillary less then 20% nevertheless....

Liberty is (was) the most Democratic county in Florida. In 2017, it finally passed Gadsden, which is Florida's only majority-black county. Key factors appear to be small rural population; very little growth; not on the Gulf; perhaps proximity to Tallahassee; and maybe a modestly large black population (20%)

In 1995, Republicans in Liberty County were outnumbered 3120 to 103, making Republicans 3% of the electorate. At the time, 12 counties in Northern Florida were under 10% Republican.

By 2002, all 12 counties, except Liberty had exceeded 10% Republican. In Liberty, Republican registration had almost doubled, but Liberty had only reached 5% GOP registration (197R vs. 3437D). The number of Republicans in Liberty had almost doubled, while Democratic registrants only increased about 10%, yet because of their massive number, about 3/4 of the increase was Democratic.

Liberty did not surpass 10% registration until 2008, despite the number of Republicans almost doubling again (419R vs. 3378D). But by that time, there were only six other counties under 20%: Calhoun 16%, Dixie 20%-, Gadsden 13%, Hamilton 18%, Lafayette 19%, and Madison 17%.

By 2017, the Republican numbers in Liberty had almost doubled again, and Democratic numbers declined a bit (733R vs. 3392D). GOP registration is now 16%. But it had also increased in the other low registration GOP counties:

Calhoun 16% to 26%
Dixie 20%- to 37%
Gadsden 13% to 15%
Hamilton 18% to 28%
Lafayette 19% to 34%
Liberty 11% to 16%
Madison 17% to 28%

In 2017, other counties under 30%:

Alachua: 28R:48D (in 1995, it was 30D:60R)
Broward: 22R:51D (in 1995, it was 35R:55R)
Jefferson: 29R:68D.
Leon: 28R:53R (in 1995, it was 26R:64R)
Miami-Dade: 27R:43D (in 1997, it 39R:48D)
Orange: 27D:43R (in 1995, 48R:43D)
Osceola: 24D:44R (in 1995, 43R:47D)
Palm Beach: 28D:43R (in 1995, 40R:48D)

The under 30% counties in North Florida now form a band:

Calhoun, Liberty, Gadsden, Leon, Jefferson, Madison, and Hamilton.

Since 1995, the following counties have flipped:

1997 Santa Rosa (41R:54D in 1995, to 58R:20D) Massive growth.
1999 Highlands (46R:49D in 1995, to 45R:33D) Long-term Democratic attrition.
2001 Marion (44R:48D in 1995, to 44R:34D) Long-term Democrat attrition.
2001 Monroe (41R:49D in 1995, to 38R:33D) Long-term Democratic attrition.
2001 Orange to Democratic (48R:43D in 1995, 27R:43D) Hotel jobs?
2002: Citrus (41R:47D in 1995, to 46R:29D) Growth areas expand north.
2003: Nassau (29R:68D in 1995, to 57R:23D) Massive suburbanization.
2005: Bay (33R:60D in 1995, to 52R:27D) High growth.
2005: Escambia (37R:57D in 1995, to 45R:35D) Long-term Democratic attrition.
2006: Sumter (31R:65D in 1995, to 53R:25D) Hyper-massive growth.
2006: Walton (25R:71D in 1995, to 59R:21D) High growth.
2009: Flagler to Democratic
2011: Pinellas to Democratic
2012: Flagler back to Republican (46R:44D in 1995, to 40R:32D)
2013: Gilchrist (14R:83D in 1995, to 54R:31D) High growth.
2015: Levy (19R:77D in 1995, to 46R:35D) High growth.
2016: Baker (7R:92D in 1995, to 51R:38D) Growth, proximity to Jacksonville?
2016: Washington (12R:86D in 1995, to 50R:37D) Growth, Panhandle?
2017: Bradford (13R:84D in 1995, to 46R:40D) Proximity to Jacksonville?
2017: Columbia (23R:74D in 1995, to 44R:38D)
2017: Gulf (11R:88D in 1995, to 46R:42D)
2017: Hardee (15R:83D in 1995, to 43R:40D) It is not just a North Florida item.
2017: Holmes (6R:93D in 1995, to 53R:36D) Panhandle?
2017: Okeechobee (23R:74D in 1995, to 42R:38D)
2017: Pinellas back to Republican (47R:41D in 1995, to 35.78R:35.75D)
2017: Suwannee (17R:80D in 1995, 43R:41D) Growth

People ordinarily only change their registration if they move or change their name, so that they can continue to vote. They might change party affiliation if the move is associated with a life event such as getting married, getting divorced, having children, getting a higher status job, losing a job, health issues that is also associated with a change in political outlook.

The massive increase in No Party Affiliation voters is an indication of indifference or alienation, rather than of active independence. There has to be a strong incentive to actually change a party registration. In Florida, it appears that there is a collapse of Democratic registration in a county, when Republicans begin to dominate. At that point, voting in the Democratic primary no longer serves to choose local office holders, let alone legislators, and representatives.

The areas that have seen the sharpest increase in GOP share are high growth areas. For example, in Sumter County, Democratic registration doubled from 1995 to 2017. Meanwhile, Republican registration increased 10-fold. The county switched from 31R:65D in 1995, to 53R:25D in 2017.

The large number of counties that flipped in 2017 was due to the Republican party having reached critical mass; the competitive Republican presidential primary; and the increase in registration associated with a presidential election year.

[smoltchanov]

^ Thanks vor very interesting (and, generally, convincing) analysis!