If Canadians could vote in the US primaries

[King of Kensington]

Let's say Canadian provinces could vote in US primaries - how would they go in the 2016 cycle.  Of course we have to take into account when in the cycle these primaries would occur.

[Goldwater]

They would obviously vote for Ted Cruz as the favorite son candidate.

[Boston Bread]

I don't think the when in the cycle matters to much for the Dems - the Clinton-Sanders margin nationally has stayed steady at 10 points or so. For the GOP it would matter a lot due to establishment candidates dropping out - and most of Canada would tend to favour them.

It also depends on who votes in the Dem and GOP primary. A non-insignificant number of Conservatives would rather would vote for Clinton in the Dem primary. If these Conservatives were forced to vote in the GOP primary instead, it would help Kasich or Rubio if he was still in.

Assuming all the provinces voted today, I'd think it would go like this:

Dems
Sanders: BC, AB, SK, MB, QC, NS, PEI, NL, YK, NT
Clinton: NB, ON, NU

The Atlantic provinces were hard to decide - I guessed Sanders would win most of them since he did great in Maine and they are overwhelmingly white, even though they're more establishment than populist generally.

GOP
Trump: QC (anti-muslim vote?)
Kasich: BC, SK, MB, ON, NB, NS, PEI, NL, YK, NT, NU
Cruz: AB (home province effect)

National popular vote:
54% Sanders
45% Clinton

45% Kasich
25% Cruz
25% Trump
5% uncomitted/write-ins

[King of Kensington]

I think Trump would do better in Ontario than in Alberta. 

[Boston Bread]

I could see Mount Royal being Clinton' best riding. Sander's might be Victoria.
Kasich's best would be in St Johns East where he could break 80 with the handful of conservatives there.
Trump - A suburban QC city riding. Not familiar with QC enough to say which.
Cruz - Fort Mac or Medicine Hat Cardston Warner

[King of Kensington]

What would Trump's best non-Quebec riding be?  Oshawa?

[Boston Bread]

I'd guess Sarnia-Lambton would be better than Oshawa for Trump. GTA Suburban conservatives are usually not that xenophobic, not even in Oshawa I'd think. Also places across the border from Sarnia seem to be quite strong for Trump.

I'd be fairly sure that the strongest Trump riding outside of QC would be in a part of Ontario similar to the rust belt.

Here's my map of how I'd expect the Dem primary to go as of right now (assuming both Clinton and Sanders had time to campaign - Clinton would win in a poll now due to name recognition):

[King of Kensington]

So Sanders wins Sikhs and First Nations, Clinton wins Jews, Chinese, Blacks and Inuit?

[Boston Bread]

So Sanders wins Sikhs and First Nations, Clinton wins Jews, Chinese, Blacks and Inuit?

If you wanted my explanations for each...

Sikhs - the NDP to alright with them, and since Sanders does well among some non-white groups so I'd figure Sikhs would be among the first non-whites to budge.

First Nations - also strong for the NDP usually. Plus Sanders seems to be winning them in the states, based on MN/NE/OK results.

Jews - The biggest block of Jews would be CPC/Democrat voters. They also tend to be more wealthy and more educated.

Chinese - In Canada they are a CPC/LPC swing bloc but would largely vote Dem in the states. Similar reasoning to Jews as to why they'd be Clinton Democrats.

Blacks - We all know the story here... (although I don't know which Canadian ridings would best match the black vote here - there's nothing like the black belt or south Chicago in Canada)

Inuit - Generally have more pragmatic and less ideological voting patterns, which is why I think they'd be stronger for Clinton than other First Nations.

Some other tidbits:

The biggest LPC -> Sanders swings come in the Atlantic provinces and in university areas (downtown Toronto, Waterloo, Kingston).

There's not much of a NDP -> Clinton demographic - there might be but nobody's really coming to mind here.

Ontario would be quite close under my map. Clinton would pull of a narrow win similar to how she won Illinois.

[King of Kensington]

I think Renfrew would also be strong from Trump, given its populist right leanings.

Mennonites (a significant conservative vote in the Prairies) would be for Cruz?  Or more "establishment"?

[Boston Bread]

Kasich is not a secular conservative by any means. Albertan mennonites will go heavily Cruz, but Kasich will be more competitive with ON, SK, and MB mennonites, strong enough to win most of the rural ridings there.

In Alberta, the Kasich/Cruz map would look like the 2012 provincial election had the Wildrose won. Kasich would win Edmonton and north Calgary, Cruz wins the rest.

Outside of AB, Provencher, Portage-Lisgar, and Cypress-Hills-Grasslands go for Cruz, all other SK/MB ridings go Kasich.

Trump would come third in the rural southern Praries, but he might come second to Kasich in the north and in Winnipeg where there is a significant amount of racial tension.

[Boston Bread]

It would be interesting to see how much of the "Ford Nation" vote would go to Trump. Despite similarities in personality, Ford never alienated immigrants the same way. However, in a US-like primary, chances are the non-white Ford voters would be voting in the Dem primary, leaving the GOP with the white members of Ford Nation. In this case, a Trump win in Etobicoke or Scarborough would be possible, if the GOP electorate turns out to be like the black belt. ie. 90% white, despite being in a minority-majority area.

[Hatman 🍁]

We've done polling on this guys, follow my Twitter for pete's sake!



We polled the GOP race too, and TRUMP won every province, even Alberta.

[King of Kensington]

It would be interesting to see how much of the "Ford Nation" vote would go to Trump. Despite similarities in personality, Ford never alienated immigrants the same way. However, in a US-like primary, chances are the non-white Ford voters would be voting in the Dem primary, leaving the GOP with the white members of Ford Nation. In this case, a Trump win in Etobicoke or Scarborough would be possible, if the GOP electorate turns out to be like the black belt. ie. 90% white, despite being in a minority-majority area.

Trump would likely do well with Italians, as Ford did.  

[King of Kensington]

I assume the "Republican demographic" looks kind of like Harper's Tories ca. 2004 or 2006. 

(I don't buy the crude extrapolations that say Leeds-Grenville would have voted 80% Obama or whatever).

[Boston Bread]

Clinton and Trump have the highest name recognition in Canada, so I'd expect a poll to be slanted towards them. But if anything the close margins in every province make me think that Sanders could sweep if both he and Clinton campaigned here.

[King of Kensington]

It also does raise interesting questions of how an unapologetic leftist who can cross the materialist/post-materialist divide, an establishment liberal that doesn't particularly excite (so not like Obama or Trudeau, Hillary is more like Paul Martin or something), a right-wing populist in the style of Trump/UKIP etc. would do in Canada.

Personally I think a Sanders-type leader who generates excitement would pretty much match the NDP map in 2011 under Layton.  Not that Layton was particularly left-wing in his last campaign, but I don't think any of the 30% of the electorate that voted NDP that year would have had difficulty voting for Sanders in a US election.

A Trump/UKIP-type party is hard: could it work both in Quebec and outside Quebec?  The Quebec City region seems the most open to such a party.  And maybe ridings like Renfrew and some rust belt ridings like Sarnia-Lambton.