Donald Trump Putting GOP House Majority in Jeopardy

[Frodo]

Trump puts GOP House majority in jeopardy:
Democrats already have reasonable odds of flipping a dozen or so House seats.

By Theodoric Meyer and Elena Schneider
03/21/16 05:18 AM EDT

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Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/trump-gop-house-majority-jeopardy-221004#ixzz43XfDqwPK

[Sir Mohamed]

I doubt it. The House is almost impossible to win in 2016. Would require a PV of 54% or so. Won’t happen, even if Hillary comes anything close to that number. I think she’ll end up beating the Trumpster 53-46% while the House PV will be 50-48% for Dems, what will result in a 10-15 seat gain. Not enough for anything near a majority.

[Zioneer]

Well, the Democrats are basically guaranteed at least 2 seats each in both Florida and Virginia due to redistricting, right? So scratch 4 off the list to begin with. So then you have 26 more. Assuming the 2012 House of Reps elections as a baseline (since it's a presidential election), Democrats will probably win about 8 more without too much trouble. That leaves 18 left. Difficult, but doable.

[Brewer]

Obviously Politico concern trolls gonna Politico concern troll, but after the antics of the past year, I've stopped trying to use logic to make political assumptions.

[This account no longer in use.]

Yes, the Democrats are likely to take Jolly and Webster's seats, but Republicans will likewise take Graham's seat, making a net gain of only 1. They're also likely to pick up Forbes' seat in VA, Blum's seat in IA, and Hardy's seat in NV, meaning a net gain of 4. Though there are more Republican-held toss-ups than Democratic toss-ups.

[Ebsy]

If you, if only just for a moment, accept that this is an unusual election bound to produce unusual results downballot even in districts with PVI's usually out of reach for Democrats, even in the absence of a massive wave, Democrats might have a narrow path to a House Majority.

[Zioneer]

Yes, the Democrats are likely to take Jolly and Webster's seats, but Republicans will likewise take Graham's seat, making a net gain of only 1. They're also likely to pick up Forbes' seat in VA, Blum's seat in IA, and Hardy's seat in NV, meaning a net gain of 4. Though there are more Republican-held toss-ups than Democratic toss-ups.

What about that Republican-held seat in Maine? Or Will Hurd's seat in Texas?

[This account no longer in use.]

Both are consensus tossups (Daily Kos actually rated Poliquin's seat Lean R), but I could see where you're coming from.

[smoltchanov]

Yes, the Democrats are likely to take Jolly and Webster's seats, but Republicans will likewise take Graham's seat, making a net gain of only 1. They're also likely to pick up Forbes' seat in VA, Blum's seat in IA, and Hardy's seat in NV, meaning a net gain of 4. Though there are more Republican-held toss-ups than Democratic toss-ups.

What about that Republican-held seat in Maine? Or Will Hurd's seat in Texas?

Poliquin is very strong fundraiser and Cain seems to be somewhat too radical liberal for this not so liberal district (yes, it supported Obama, Baldacci, Michaud and other Democrats, but it's still considerably less liberal then ME-01). Hurd's seat will be close. It was narrowly for Gallego in 2012 and narrowly for Hurd in 2014 (and, before that - narrowly for Canseco in 2010). Almost THE only really "purple" district in Texas.

[Zioneer]

Yes, the Democrats are likely to take Jolly and Webster's seats, but Republicans will likewise take Graham's seat, making a net gain of only 1. They're also likely to pick up Forbes' seat in VA, Blum's seat in IA, and Hardy's seat in NV, meaning a net gain of 4. Though there are more Republican-held toss-ups than Democratic toss-ups.

What about that Republican-held seat in Maine? Or Will Hurd's seat in Texas?

Poliquin is very strong fundraiser and Cain seems to be somewhat too radical liberal for this not so liberal district (yes, it supported Obama, Baldacci, Michaud and other Democrats, but it's still considerably less liberal then ME-01). Hurd's seat will be close. It was narrowly for Gallego in 2012 and narrowly for Hurd in 2014 (and, before that - narrowly for Canseco in 2010). Almost THE only really "purple" district in Texas.

I was more using Hurd and Poliquin as random examples of candidates dragged in through the 2014 wave that could be beatable by the Democrats in 2016 (and candidates who don't seem to have moderated all that much).

[RRusso1982]

Don't forget Murphy's seat in Florida.  That's a seat the Republicans should pick up. 

[Illiniwek]

I will believe it when I see it. I will be giddy if it happens, but only when I see that it actually has happened.

[Maxwell]

I would not count Poliquin out - his district is moving in his direction, and it's one area where Trump will overperform rather than underperform.

[smoltchanov]

I would not count Poliquin out - his district is moving in his direction, and it's one area where Trump will overperform rather than underperform.

Agree fully..

[Virginiá]

Yes, the Democrats are likely to take Jolly and Webster's seats, but Republicans will likewise take Graham's seat, making a net gain of only 1.

Curbelo (F-26th) is also looking vulnerable in a year where Hispanics will be out in force

Don't forget Murphy's seat in Florida.  That's a seat the Republicans should pick up.  

In respect to both of these posts, if there was a wave, aren't both Curbelo's 26th (R+4) and Murphy's 18th (R+3) exactly the type of seats likely to go to Democrats this year, given the dynamics of this cycle? That's the point of a wave.

If Democrats put up more than enough half-decent candidates in viable districts, with a proper amount of extras for, as someone put it in another thread, "wave-insurance", then with proper funding as well, a wave sweeping in a Democratic House majority doesn't seem out of the question. Probably not likely as of this moment, but it's still early in the year.

I don't really think at this point, when a lot of filing deadlines haven't arrived yet, anyone can really say for sure that public opinion won't turn on Republicans significantly enough later this year to sweep them out of office. Especially given what is going on with the GOP.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Some excellent concern trolling by politico!

[Adam Griffin]

A dozen isn't impressive. That's what Dems had in 2012 and that were lost in 2014; Dems picked up 8 net seats in 2012 and lost 13 net in 2014.

No offense to the President, but replicating the Obama 2012 "wave" in the House isn't impressive (the Senate holds were where it was at). Impressive would be twice that number.

[Virginiá]

A dozen isn't impressive. That's what Dems had in 2012 and that were lost in 2014; Dems picked up 8 net seats in 2012 and lost 13 net in 2014.

A dozen appears to be what was assumed reasonably possible before Trump absolutely destroyed the race.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

For now 10-15 is possible,  but in a 2012 election map, a House majority isnt improbable and Clinton has been leading Trunp by 3-5%

[Devils30]

FL-26 went 56-44 Obama last time, with Trump in Miami you're looking at 20% plus possibly considering the demographics. Curbelo is likely screwed.

FL-18 is the type of district that Trump might struggle in with its higher income/education levels. With Murphy on the ballot for Senate I see Dems holding this one too.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

In theory, if everything went right, including running real candidates instead of sacrificial lambs, SC-5 and -7 could be won by a Democrat if TRUMP is the Republican standard bearer. Even if that improbability were to happen, the seat(s) would be regained by the Republicans in 2018.

In reality, the most that could be done is to get the Republicans to readjust their gerrymander to ensure they always get 6 of our 7 seats.

[ElectionsGuy]

Hillary would have to win by double digits to put the majority in jeopardy.

[Figueira]

Yes, the Democrats are likely to take Jolly and Webster's seats, but Republicans will likewise take Graham's seat, making a net gain of only 1. They're also likely to pick up Forbes' seat in VA, Blum's seat in IA, and Hardy's seat in NV, meaning a net gain of 4. Though there are more Republican-held toss-ups than Democratic toss-ups.

What about that Republican-held seat in Maine? Or Will Hurd's seat in Texas?

Poliquin is very strong fundraiser and Cain seems to be somewhat too radical liberal for this not so liberal district (yes, it supported Obama, Baldacci, Michaud and other Democrats, but it's still considerably less liberal then ME-01). Hurd's seat will be close. It was narrowly for Gallego in 2012 and narrowly for Hurd in 2014 (and, before that - narrowly for Canseco in 2010). Almost THE only really "purple" district in Texas.

As I understand it, Cain isn't too left-wing for her district; she's just left-wing in the wrong ways for her district.