Republican Wild Western Tuesday results thread

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

This race could be a bit on the close side, but I think Trump will still win.

The race is gonna be decided in Maricopa county for the most part, I don't see any reason why Trump doesn't lose here since Arpaio and Brewer endorsed him.

do endorsements matter though?

This cycle seems to suggest that they don't (at least this time).

[IceSpear]

I don't know why people are forgetting that 70% of the electorate has already voted. I can't imagine a small newspaper has the ability to take them into account.

70?? That seems hard to believe. And it doesn't jive with reports of massive lines.

I'm not sure what the exact percentage will be, but it's going to be very, very high.

As for anecdotes about long lines...they're about as useful an indicator as counting yard signs.

[Gass3268]

I don't know why people are forgetting that 70% of the electorate has already voted. I can't imagine a small newspaper has the ability to take them into account.

70?? That seems hard to believe. And it doesn't jive with reports of massive lines.

I'm going based on this thread:

Early voting tea leaves in Arizona favor Clinton and Trump

Also we should just stop worry about an exit poll and just wait for 11pm ET. Results will come in very fast!

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I don't know why people are forgetting that 70% of the electorate has already voted. I can't imagine a small newspaper has the ability to take them into account.

70?? That seems hard to believe. And it doesn't jive with reports of massive lines.

I'm going based on this thread:

Early voting tea leaves in Arizona favor Clinton and Trump

Also we should just stop worry about an exit poll and just wait for 11pm ET. Results will come in very fast!

You mean 10? Polls close at 10pm actually

[Gass3268]

I don't know why people are forgetting that 70% of the electorate has already voted. I can't imagine a small newspaper has the ability to take them into account.

70?? That seems hard to believe. And it doesn't jive with reports of massive lines.

I'm not sure what the exact percentage will be, but it's going to be very, very high.

As for anecdotes about long lines...they're about as useful an indicator as counting yard signs.

Long lines can be an indictor that it was a stupid idea to reduce polling sites by 70%.

[Gass3268]

I don't know why people are forgetting that 70% of the electorate has already voted. I can't imagine a small newspaper has the ability to take them into account.

70?? That seems hard to believe. And it doesn't jive with reports of massive lines.

I'm going based on this thread:

Early voting tea leaves in Arizona favor Clinton and Trump

Also we should just stop worry about an exit poll and just wait for 11pm ET. Results will come in very fast!

You mean 10? Polls close at 10pm actually

It's against Arizona law to release election results to the media until an hour after voting closes. We won't have an results until 11pm, but they should come in fast and quick.

[Vosem]

People seriously think Trump could lose AZ? The state is tailor made for him.

Arizona is not at all a tailor-made state for _trump; Republicans there tend to be wealthier, more suburban, and more educated, all things that have worked against him in the past. He could conceivably still win (OpinionSavvy did have him at 46 -- that's a high enough level), but he's not passing 50 here and a strong campaign could definitely have taken him down.

Neither Arpaio (who won by single-digits in 2012 in a double-digit Romney county that is more Republican downballot) nor Brewer is a particularly popular figure (last opinion poll had her at 44/42; a +2 rating), though Arpaio is liked by national anti-immigration groups. Neither is going to pull a large number of votes in AZ for _trump; if he does win here, it'll be for other reasons.

[Mr. Morden]

While we have a long wait until any results from American Samoa, a quick reminder on why it might not be such fertile ground for Trump:

http://www.buzzfeed.com/mckaycoppins/why-romney-will-dominate-the-american-samoa-primar#.yy7wbBG9K

[Classic Conservative]

BYU is having a basketball game at 7:00 Utah Time and around 12,000 people are attending, I heard.

[cinyc]

While we have a long wait until any results from American Samoa, a quick reminder on why it might not be such fertile ground for Trump:

http://www.buzzfeed.com/mckaycoppins/why-romney-will-dominate-the-american-samoa-primar#.yy7wbBG9K

There literally were about 70 American Samoans who caucused for the Republicans in 2012.  They are probably not representative of the territory's population at large in many ways.  They are probably more white than Samoan, and may or may not be more Mormon.  The territory's major morning radio DJ is chairman of the American Samoans for Trump campaign, and is also fairly active in the territory's Republican party.  If he becomes a delegate, he'd likely support Trump.

The American Samoa delegation is supposed to be officially unpledged, anyway.

[Vosem]

While we have a long wait until any results from American Samoa, a quick reminder on why it might not be such fertile ground for Trump:

http://www.buzzfeed.com/mckaycoppins/why-romney-will-dominate-the-american-samoa-primar#.yy7wbBG9K

There literally were about 70 American Samoans who caucused for the Republicans in 2012.  They are probably not representative of the territory's population at large in many ways.  They are probably more white than Samoan, and may or may not be more Mormon.  The territory's major morning radio DJ is chairman of the American Samoans for Trump campaign, and is also fairly active in the territory's Republican party.  If he becomes a delegate, he'd likely support Trump.

The American Samoa delegation is supposed to be officially unpledged, anyway.

I really doubt some radio DJ will be able to change the voting patterns of heavily-Mormon areas that have stayed the same around the country, and I hope you realize unpledged delegates are mostly establishment hacks chosen for their loyalty to the #Never_trump movement.

[cinyc]

While we have a long wait until any results from American Samoa, a quick reminder on why it might not be such fertile ground for Trump:

http://www.buzzfeed.com/mckaycoppins/why-romney-will-dominate-the-american-samoa-primar#.yy7wbBG9K

There literally were about 70 American Samoans who caucused for the Republicans in 2012.  They are probably not representative of the territory's population at large in many ways.  They are probably more white than Samoan, and may or may not be more Mormon.  The territory's major morning radio DJ is chairman of the American Samoans for Trump campaign, and is also fairly active in the territory's Republican party.  If he becomes a delegate, he'd likely support Trump.

The American Samoa delegation is supposed to be officially unpledged, anyway.

I really doubt some radio DJ will be able to change the voting patterns of heavily-Mormon areas that have stayed the same around the country, and I hope you realize unpledged delegates are mostly establishment hacks chosen for their loyalty to the #Never_trump movement.

You're assuming that Mormon American Samoans actually show up to vote in Republican caucuses.  That may or may not be the case, as native Samoans are less likely to care about off-island politics than whites who emigrated from elsewhere.  You're also forgetting that turnout in this caucus will be very low - likely fewer than 100.  The smaller the sample size, the less representative it is of the overall population.

[Vosem]

While we have a long wait until any results from American Samoa, a quick reminder on why it might not be such fertile ground for Trump:

http://www.buzzfeed.com/mckaycoppins/why-romney-will-dominate-the-american-samoa-primar#.yy7wbBG9K

There literally were about 70 American Samoans who caucused for the Republicans in 2012.  They are probably not representative of the territory's population at large in many ways.  They are probably more white than Samoan, and may or may not be more Mormon.  The territory's major morning radio DJ is chairman of the American Samoans for Trump campaign, and is also fairly active in the territory's Republican party.  If he becomes a delegate, he'd likely support Trump.

The American Samoa delegation is supposed to be officially unpledged, anyway.

I really doubt some radio DJ will be able to change the voting patterns of heavily-Mormon areas that have stayed the same around the country, and I hope you realize unpledged delegates are mostly establishment hacks chosen for their loyalty to the #Never_trump movement.

You're assuming that Mormon American Samoans actually show up to vote in Republican caucuses.  That may or may not be the case, as native Samoans are less likely to care about off-island politics than whites who emigrated from elsewhere.  You're also forgetting that turnout in this caucus will be very low - likely fewer than 100.  The smaller the sample size, the less representative it is of the overall population.

Mormons are very high-turnout, very Republican voters everywhere. Logically, the smaller the turnout the more Mormon the caucus should be. More good news for #Never_trump!

[The Other Castro]

Decision Desk HQ ‏@DecisionDeskHQ  4h4 hours ago
Per the Vice-Chairman of the American Samoa GOP, John Raynar, results for their caucus will be available approximately 1:30am EDT.

[Eraserhead]

Decision Desk HQ ‏@DecisionDeskHQ  4h4 hours ago
Per the Vice-Chairman of the American Samoa GOP, John Raynar, results for their caucus will be available approximately 1:30am EDT.

Do they still think Hillary won Michigan?

[The Other Castro]

Decision Desk HQ ‏@DecisionDeskHQ  4h4 hours ago
Per the Vice-Chairman of the American Samoa GOP, John Raynar, results for their caucus will be available approximately 1:30am EDT.

Do they still think Hillary won Michigan?

While they may be god awful at calling races, I'm assuming they wouldn't just lie about American Samoan closing times for the fun of it.

[cinyc]

Decision Desk HQ ‏@DecisionDeskHQ  4h4 hours ago
Per the Vice-Chairman of the American Samoa GOP, John Raynar, results for their caucus will be available approximately 1:30am EDT.

Do they still think Hillary won Michigan?

While they may be god awful at calling races, I'm assuming they wouldn't just lie about American Samoan closing times for the fun of it.

The Samoa News article I linked upthread also said that the American Samoa caucuses start at 11:30 Eastern and should be over 2 hours later.  So Decision Desk HQ isn't lying.

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/michaelshure/status/712456592172560384

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[IceSpear]

https://twitter.com/michaelshure/status/712456592172560384

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#BattlegroundUtah

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

https://twitter.com/michaelshure/status/712456592172560384

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#BattlegroundUtah

#MormonsForHillary

[Why]

We are less than an hour before the first results, probably a lot of results, come out of Arizona?

[The Free North]

We are less than an hour before the first results, probably a lot of results, come out of Arizona?

Sigh....the struggle of being on the east coast and waiting for these silly mountain states to get going

[Holmes]

Decision Desk HQ ‏@DecisionDeskHQ  4h4 hours ago
Per the Vice-Chairman of the American Samoa GOP, John Raynar, results for their caucus will be available approximately 1:30am EDT.

Do they still think Hillary won Michigan?

Do they still think Bernie won Missouri?

[Mr. Morden]

In Utah:

https://twitter.com/DNewsPolitics/status/712457266260094976

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[CapoteMonster]

BYU is having a basketball game at 7:00 Utah Time and around 12,000 people are attending, I heard.

The attendance is actually closer to the Mariott Center capacity of 19,000.