Republican Wild Western Tuesday results thread

[Matty]

dude, if this exit poll showed trump up big, you would be all over it. Why the downplay?

Because it's not an official one? Because it is not Maricopa?

ok but if that site is correct and had their prediction at trump +8, that is significant is it not?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

dude, if this exit poll showed trump up big, you would be all over it. Why the downplay?

Because it's not an official one? Because it is not Maricopa?

ok but if that site is correct and had their prediction at trump +8, that is significant is it not?

Also, not downplaying it cause there is no need to.

[Vosem]

Note that Benchmark had _trump winning Yavapai by 8 even as Cruz wins the state by 3 (and Maricopa County by 5). If Cruz is winning Yavapai by double-digits, he's probably winning the state as a whole by double-digits. (Though, on the other hand, I have no idea where Benchmark's numbers come from, and they feel sort of pulled out of their asses; in the past, Yavapai and Maricopa County usually vote almost identically, though Santorum was much stronger in Yavapai than Maricopa in 2012.)

But this random local newspaper has given us no reason to trust it, and Cruz+17 in Yavapai County would mean all polling in the state, including the most Cruz-favorable polls, were terribly, terribly off. I think Occam's Razor here is that this exit poll is just heavily flawed.

[Matty]

the exit poll does not have cruz leading the county, only prescott valley. the county is tie.

[Gass3268]

Note that Benchmark had _trump winning Yavapai by 8 even as Cruz wins the state by 3 (and Maricopa County by 5). If Cruz is winning Yavapai by double-digits, he's probably winning the state as a whole by double-digits. (Though, on the other hand, I have no idea where Benchmark's numbers come from, and they feel sort of pulled out of their asses; in the past, Yavapai and Maricopa County usually vote almost identically, though Santorum was much stronger in Yavapai than Maricopa in 2012.)

But this random local newspaper has given us no reason to trust it, and Cruz+17 in Yavapai County would mean all polling in the state, including the most Cruz-favorable polls, were terribly, terribly off. I think Occam's Razor here is that this exit poll is just heavily flawed.

I'm guessing that this could be just day of the election vote. I think Jan Brewer said about 70% of the electorate had already voted in early voting.

[Ronnie]

I've had a feeling that Cruz will pull off an upset tonight, and the Yavapai exit poll seems to confirm that feeling.  Let's see what happens.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Note that Benchmark had _trump winning Yavapai by 8 even as Cruz wins the state by 3 (and Maricopa County by 5). If Cruz is winning Yavapai by double-digits, he's probably winning the state as a whole by double-digits. (Though, on the other hand, I have no idea where Benchmark's numbers come from, and they feel sort of pulled out of their asses; in the past, Yavapai and Maricopa County usually vote almost identically, though Santorum was much stronger in Yavapai than Maricopa in 2012.)

But this random local newspaper has given us no reason to trust it, and Cruz+17 in Yavapai County would mean all polling in the state, including the most Cruz-favorable polls, were terribly, terribly off. I think Occam's Razor here is that this exit poll is just heavily flawed.

According to them, he's only leading in Prescott Valley, he's tied with Trump in Prescott.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I've had a feeling that Cruz will pull off an upset tonight, and the Yavapai exit poll seems to confirm that feeling.  Let's see what happens.

It's a random exit poll from a random paper, don't put too much stock in it.

[Vosem]

the exit poll does not have cruz leading the county, only prescott valley. the county is tie.

If Benchmark's numbers are reliable, the county being a tie is still a forecast of a decently comfortable Cruz victory. If they're totally off, and _trump is stronger in Maricopa than Yavapai (perfectly conceivable; I have no idea why Benchmark think Maricopa should be weaker for him than Yavapai), then _trump could still be good.

Also, I'm pretty sure 50-33 is the county total. Prescott (where the candidates are tied) and Prescott Valley (where percentages are not given, but Cruz is said to lead _trump "2-1") are two communities in Yavapai County.

[Matty]

I've had a feeling that Cruz will pull off an upset tonight, and the Yavapai exit poll seems to confirm that feeling.  Let's see what happens.

It's a random exit poll from a random paper, don't put too much stock in it.

What would it take for you to stop being so "bullish" on trump? I like your anti-trump views and efforts, but it seems too often you have lost hope and are hopeless about defeating him.

[Cruzcrew]

Cruz is probably winning the Election Day vote. The question is will his margins beat trumps advantage in the early vote?

[yankeesfan]

Also remember that the exit poll was released at 3pm, so the second and third waves of exit polls hadn't been captured yet.  I've heard that the 3rd wave of exit polls is usually Trump-friendly.

[indietraveler]

If Cruz happens to upset tonight, I wonder if Trump will have a meltdown.

[Mike Thick]

If Cruz happens to upset tonight, I wonder if Trump will have a meltdown.

I think that this was the worst possible time for an upset -- it'll be drowned out by coverage of the Brussels attack.

[Gass3268]

I don't know why people are forgetting that 70% of the electorate has already voted. I can't imagine a small newspaper has the ability to take them into account.

[Cruzcrew]

If Cruz happens to upset tonight, I wonder if Trump will have a meltdown.

Something along the lines of Cruz cheated saying (insert name) has dropped out like in Iowa.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I've had a feeling that Cruz will pull off an upset tonight, and the Yavapai exit poll seems to confirm that feeling.  Let's see what happens.

It's a random exit poll from a random paper, don't put too much stock in it.

What would it take for you to stop being so "bullish" on trump? I like your anti-trump views and efforts, but it seems too often you have lost hope and are hopeless about defeating him.

Because we have had problems with exit polls this cycle, plus I'm more cynical than anything. Plus, the vast majority of Arizonans have already voted.

[Matty]

I don't know why people are forgetting that 70% of the electorate has already voted. I can't imagine a small newspaper has the ability to take them into account.

70?? That seems hard to believe. And it doesn't jive with reports of massive lines.

[The Other Castro]

If Cruz happens to upset tonight, I wonder if Trump will have a meltdown.

I think that this was the worst possible time for an upset -- it'll be drowned out by coverage of the Brussels attack.

Arizona is still a WTA state, and delegates are still delegates even if they don't provide media momentum.

[Mike Thick]

If Cruz happens to upset tonight, I wonder if Trump will have a meltdown.

I think that this was the worst possible time for an upset -- it'll be drowned out by coverage of the Brussels attack.

Arizona is still a WTA state, and delegates are still delegates even if they don't provide media momentum.

True that. However, media momentum leads to more delegates as well.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

The race is gonna be decided in Maricopa county for the most part, I don't see any reason why Trump doesn't lose here since Arpaio and Brewer endorsed him.

[Matty]

If Cruz happens to upset tonight, I wonder if Trump will have a meltdown.

I think that this was the worst possible time for an upset -- it'll be drowned out by coverage of the Brussels attack.

Arizona is still a WTA state, and delegates are still delegates even if they don't provide media momentum.

True that. However, media momentum leads to more delegates as well.

You really think so? It seems like "momentum" has been utterly useless this election. e.g. sanders after michigan, rubio after iowa, etc.

[Matty]

The race is gonna be decided in Maricopa county for the most part, I don't see any reason why Trump doesn't lose here since Arpaio and Brewer endorsed him.

do endorsements matter though?

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

People seriously think Trump could lose AZ? The state is tailor made for him.

[Matty]

People seriously think Trump could lose AZ? The state is tailor made for him.

no, but when you are starving any little slice of meat is intriguing,.