Republican Wild Western Tuesday results thread

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

I can't vote in the AZ primaries, because I'm technically still living in Colorado. Won't be in AZ until June unfortunately.

Colorado will be super important too!

Colorado isn't doing a presidential preference vote.

Never mind i feel sad now... Cruz would've certainly won

Some counties did hold unofficial votes. Cruz won most of them.

Do you have a link to those?

[RI]

I can't vote in the AZ primaries, because I'm technically still living in Colorado. Won't be in AZ until June unfortunately.

Colorado will be super important too!

Colorado isn't doing a presidential preference vote.

Never mind i feel sad now... Cruz would've certainly won

Some counties did hold unofficial votes. Cruz won most of them.

Do you have a link to those?

There isn't any one specific link; individual county Republican parties and local papers reported on them. You can see some of the results on my map.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

I can't vote in the AZ primaries, because I'm technically still living in Colorado. Won't be in AZ until June unfortunately.

Colorado will be super important too!

Colorado isn't doing a presidential preference vote.

Never mind i feel sad now... Cruz would've certainly won

Some counties did hold unofficial votes. Cruz won most of them.

Do you have a link to those?

There isn't any one specific link; individual county Republican parties and local papers reported on them. You can see some of the results on my map.

Thanks! It's nice to see the individual county results for Wyoming too.

[The Other Castro]

Glendale, AZ apparently has super high turnout due to mail-in ballot receiving failures. High turnout in Maricopa County could be good for Cruz.

[Gass3268]

Glendale, AZ apparently has super high turnout due to mail-in ballot receiving failures. High turnout in Maricopa County could be good for Cruz.

Hasn't high turnout always benefited Trump? Also this is the same county that's elected Joe Arpaio over and over again.

[Orthogonian Society Treasurer]

Let's dispel this fiction that Lyin' Ted has a chance in Arizona. 

[Joe Biden 2020]

Let's dispel this fiction that Lyin' Ted has a chance in Arizona. 

Exactly

[Maxwell]

I don't know where in Arizona high turnout would signify a Cruz win - but it's certainly not old corrupt Arpaio's stomping ground of Maricopa.

[cinyc]

Samoa News has an article on today's American Samoa Republican caucus.  It will be held at the Veterans Memorial Center, which is where I think the Democratic caucus was held, starting at 4:30PM local time (11:30PM Eastern).  It is expected to end two hours later, so around 1:30AM Eastern. 

Cruz reported a message for the caucus.  Trump has supporters on the ground, too.  The delegates are unbound, so we might not learn much from the results, anyway.

[Gass3268]

I don't know where in Arizona high turnout would signify a Cruz win - but it's certainly not old corrupt Arpaio's stomping ground of Maricopa.

Only place I could see Cruz doing well in Maricopa is Mesa. Big Mormon area. Also Graham and Navajo counties are between 20-25% Mormon, would not be shocked if he won those counties.

[Young Conservative]

I don't know where in Arizona high turnout would signify a Cruz win - but it's certainly not old corrupt Arpaio's stomping ground of Maricopa.

Only place I could see Cruz doing well in Maricopa is Mesa. Big Mormon area. Also Graham and Navajo counties are between 20-25% Mormon, would not be shocked if he won those counties.

Mesa is a huge population center and the most Republican major city in America so that would be great

[yankeesfan]

http://www.benchmarkpolitics.com/?view=classic

Benchmark politics is tracking turnout pretty diligently.  Their prediction estimate released yesterday was Cruz 41% - Trump 38% - Kasich 13% - Other 8%

[The Other Castro]

http://www.benchmarkpolitics.com/?view=classic

Benchmark politics is tracking turnout pretty diligently.  Their prediction estimate released yesterday was Cruz 41% - Trump 38% - Kasich 13% - Other 8%

So they have Maricopa going for Cruz in a tied race I guess.

[yankeesfan]

http://www.benchmarkpolitics.com/?view=classic

Benchmark politics is tracking turnout pretty diligently.  Their prediction estimate released yesterday was Cruz 41% - Trump 38% - Kasich 13% - Other 8%

So they have Maricopa going for Cruz in a tied race I guess.

Yes, they have Cruz+5 there.  The rationale is below:

Nearly four times the size of the next biggest county, Maricopa County will be the bellwether of the entire State as the majority of votes on Tuesday night will be counted right here. If you remember the Nevada caucuses then you most likely remember how Las Vegas gave us a lot of information about how the state was going to go as a whole and we will see that here in Arizona as well but on a much larger scale.

The electorate in the state is pretty diverse with a fair amount of African American, Hispanic, and Native American voters. Maricopa county has the highest concentration of African American voters as well as the highest median income of any other county in the state. Although the African American presence is good for Trump, it is minuscule compared to other places Trump has done well in. The Hispanic vote is gargantuan, and many of these voters are Republican. The Hispanic vote is not one of Trump's strong points, but it is important to note that the effect of Hispanics has not been equal throughout the states.

Bachelor Degrees are pretty common in Maricopa county, something that hurts Trump. The more bachelors degrees in an area, the less of a chance Trump seems to have. A surprising finding - for a Southwestern state, the Evangelical population of Maricopa County is the highest in the state - you usually do not find high evangelical populations in major cities, but Maricopa County has its share. These voters are expected to go to Cruz.

In the end, if Trump can't build a significant lead in Maricopa County, he is going to have trouble int he rest of the state. Cruz is benchmarked to win this race, and if Cruz wants a shot at doing so, he's going to need to rely on the very favorable demographics for him. High income - $53k median income has been spectacular for him. High Hispanics, a well educated population, with a touch of evangelicalism. Maricopa County sets the stage for a surprising Cruz showing.

-------

Doesn't seem very empirical, but let's see.  Maybe they're the anti-Nate Silver

[RI]

http://www.benchmarkpolitics.com/?view=classic

Benchmark politics is tracking turnout pretty diligently.  Their prediction estimate released yesterday was Cruz 41% - Trump 38% - Kasich 13% - Other 8%

That's their benchmark model. It's not a prediction. The site is for looking at spreads between counties to make projections once numbers start coming in. Trump ran about 10% better than their benchmark last week, but the mark of whether they're successful is whether or not that 10% is consistent across counties.

[ElectionsGuy]

Let's dispel this fiction that Lyin' Ted has a chance in Arizona. 

Exactly

The polls have been wronger () before. Its entirely possible Cruz could pull some kind of upset, however I think Arizona is pretty fertile soil for the Trump message.

[cinyc]

Let's dispel this fiction that Lyin' Ted has a chance in Arizona. 

Exactly

The polls have been wronger () before. Its entirely possible Cruz could pull some kind of upset, however I think Arizona is pretty fertile soil for the Trump message.

Last I checked, the Cruz campaign itself didn't even bother to advertise on Arizona TV.  A Cruz SuperPAC did advertise, though.  But if the Cruz campaign thought it had a chance at winning Arizona, wouldn't it have made at least a small ad buy there?

[Classic Conservative]

Let's dispel this fiction that Lyin' Ted has a chance in Arizona. 

Exactly

The polls have been wronger () before. Its entirely possible Cruz could pull some kind of upset, however I think Arizona is pretty fertile soil for the Trump message.

Last I checked, the Cruz campaign itself didn't even bother to advertise on Arizona TV.  A Cruz SuperPAC did advertise, though.  But if the Cruz campaign thought it had a chance at winning Arizona, wouldn't it have made at least a small ad buy there?

I believe that Cruz Campaign played an ad titled "Grant" in Arizona.

[cinyc]

Let's dispel this fiction that Lyin' Ted has a chance in Arizona. 

Exactly

The polls have been wronger () before. Its entirely possible Cruz could pull some kind of upset, however I think Arizona is pretty fertile soil for the Trump message.

Last I checked, the Cruz campaign itself didn't even bother to advertise on Arizona TV.  A Cruz SuperPAC did advertise, though.  But if the Cruz campaign thought it had a chance at winning Arizona, wouldn't it have made at least a small ad buy there?

I believe that Cruz Campaign played an ad titled "Grant" in Arizona.

They released two versions of an ad titled "Grant" on YouTube, but didn't buy any local network over-the-air TV spots to air it.  It's possible they made a cheaper cable buy to air it, though.

All I can tell you is that as of this weekend when I last checked the filings, the Cruz campaign wasn't up on Arizona over-the-air network TV like the Phoenix or Tucson ABC, CBS, NBC or FOX affiliates.

[Joe Biden 2020]

When is CNN switching over to Election Coverage?

[Matty]

Calling it now: trump wins AZ by a larger margin than NV

[yankeesfan]

Calling it now: trump wins AZ by a larger margin than NV

Trump wins by 22+?

That's not happening.

[Classic Conservative]

Calling it now: trump wins AZ by a larger margin than NV

Trumps gonna lose by 22 now.   just kidding. Trump is going to win here tonight.

[musicblind]

When is CNN switching over to Election Coverage?

It doesn't appear they'll be switching over anytime soon

The attacks in Belgium are awful, but I was hoping they would at least mix the coverage.

[Joe Biden 2020]

When is CNN switching over to Election Coverage?

It doesn't appear they'll be switching over anytime soon

The attacks in Belgium are awful, but I was hoping they would at least mix the coverage.

I'm hoping they'll switch over at the top of either the next two hours.  Erin Burnett normally comes on in 10 minutes and Anderson Cooper in 70 minutes.