Republican Wild Western Tuesday results thread

[Kingpoleon]

Anderson Cooper said that CNN was watching all these states "closely".  They're watching "closely", yet they haven't mentioned the large number of Rubio votes on air yet.  lol

Anderson Cooper is a joke.

Personally I quite prefer this new era of the media pretending that Rubio doesn't exist. The lovefest was becoming unbearable.

[Alcon]

Cruz will beat "Other."  The Election Day votes in Maricopa County make that obvious.  Cruz's problem in mitigating the big loss, is that Trump may also be gaining some in Election Day votes.  Trump led Maricopa early votes 45.4%-20.2%.  He leads Election Day votes 53.7%-33.1%.  A huge improvement for Cruz, but also a big improvement for Trump.  If that pattern holds, Cruz will improve, but Trump may not decline much, or at all.  Caveat that it's only a few precincts, and Trump has fallen a bit in Yavapai with Election Day reports.

[Badger]

So AZ is WTA even without hitting 50%, or does Trump need a majority to take it all?

[RI]

So AZ is WTA even without hitting 50%, or does Trump need a majority to take it all?

WTA regardless of percentage.

[Matty]

some of these margins being reported on facebook out of utah caucus.

cruz could be approaching puerto rico level victory.

[Badger]

So AZ is WTA even without hitting 50%, or does Trump need a majority to take it all?

WTA regardless of percentage.

That's what I thought.

So Cruz gets it all in UT; Trump does so in AZ. No surprises. No gamechangers. On to Round 17 or whatever.

[DINGO Joe]

Cruz will beat "Other."  The Election Day votes in Maricopa County make that obvious.  Cruz's problem in mitigating the big loss, is that Trump may also be gaining some in Election Day votes.  Trump led Maricopa early votes 45.4%-20.2%.  He leads Election Day votes 53.7%-33.1%.  A huge improvement for Cruz, but also a big improvement for Trump.  If that pattern holds, Cruz will improve, but Trump may not decline much, or at all.  Caveat that it's only a few precincts, and Trump has fallen a bit in Yavapai with Election Day reports.

Where are you finding the breakout of early vs election day?

[Holmes]

Cruz ahead in Graham county (and Sanders only 5% behind on the Democratic side). Quite the contrarian county.

edit: it's a Mormon-heavy county?

[RI]

edit: it's a Mormon-heavy county?

Yes

[Mr. Morden]

CNN finally mentions Rubio's numbers.

[Alcon]

Cruz campaign manager Jeff Roe on Twitter:

Jeff Roe
@jeffroe
At the risk of going full Rove here, stay tuned to AZ. We will lose but not anywhere close to current margin and watch election day vote %.
8:58 PM - 22 Mar 2016

I'm not sure where he's getting this.  Maybe he's extrapolating some of the Election Day results from tiny counties like Mohave, where Early Votes were 65%-17% and Election Day so far is 61%-33%.  The Maricopa Election Day numbers are small so far, but they do not tell that story.  Trump won early votes 45%-20%; Election Day votes have both candidates surging, 56%-32%.

Edit: Trump is now exhibiting a bigger improvement in Election Day ballots in Maricopa than Cruz, gaining 11.6% to Cruz 11.0%.  Trump is at 57.1% on Election Day, and Cruz at 31.2%.

[Joe Republic]

Just a reminder: Utah was never a part of the Wild West. Think of the last Western flick that you saw set in Utah. Filmed in Utah? Maybe. Nice scenery. The usual elements of Western violence (cattle-trail ends, gold mining areas) weren't to be found in Utah.  

The Lone Ranger

[cinyc]

Cruz campaign manager Jeff Roe on Twitter:

Jeff Roe
@jeffroe
At the risk of going full Rove here, stay tuned to AZ. We will lose but not anywhere close to current margin and watch election day vote %.
8:58 PM - 22 Mar 2016

I'm not sure where he's getting this.  Maybe he's extrapolating some of the Election Day results from tiny counties like Mohave, where Early Votes were 65%-17% and Election Day so far is 61%-33%.  The Maricopa Election Day numbers are small so far, but they do not tell that story.  Trump won early votes 45%-20%; Election Day votes have both candidates surging, 56%-32%.

Are the partial Maricopa County election day results anywhere near representative of the county as a whole?  Is Mesa even reporting?  Or is it mainly Phoenix or West Valley?

[Alcon]

^ We have no way of knowing that, but it's also ridiculous to extrapolate a couple of precincts in the smaller counties to make a statement like Roe is, unless I'm missing a big county that's reported a lot of Election Night.

Yuma just reported some Election Day that substantially lowered the gap, though -- 49%-26% versus 48%-41% in the new batch.  I suppose it stands more of a chance of being representative, since it's 13% of the Yuma vote versus 4% in Maricopa.  Still, this is not much to go on.

My guess from these early results is that Maricopa is a bit of an anomaly, and Trump will stagnate some while Cruz surges.  Still, it's too early to conclude that with much confidence at all.

[Maxwell]

lol Ben Carson at 7% in Greenlee County!

[Joe Republic]

When is CNN switching over to Election Coverage?

Ugh, I know, all this whatever nonsense happening in some other country is sooo boooring.  Don't they know there's a primary happening today?  Here in the U.S. of A.??!!

[Ronnie]

Cruz campaign manager Jeff Roe on Twitter:

Jeff Roe
@jeffroe
At the risk of going full Rove here, stay tuned to AZ. We will lose but not anywhere close to current margin and watch election day vote %.
8:58 PM - 22 Mar 2016

Lol, is he really trying to spin what might be a 15 point loss instead of a 20+ point loss into some kind of victory?

[Joe Biden 2020]

When is CNN switching over to Election Coverage?

Ugh, I know, all this whatever nonsense happening in some other country is sooo boooring.  Don't they know there's a primary happening today?  Here in the U.S. of A.??!!

I was kind of joking, mainly because we didn't exactly have any early states tonight.  Heck, it's midnight CT and we're not even halfway through...

[Seriously?]

Cruz campaign manager Jeff Roe on Twitter:

Jeff Roe
@jeffroe
At the risk of going full Rove here, stay tuned to AZ. We will lose but not anywhere close to current margin and watch election day vote %.
8:58 PM - 22 Mar 2016

Lol, is he really trying to spin what might be a 15 point loss instead of a 20+ point loss into some kind of victory?

You gotta love politics. Rubio would be giving his participation trophy speech right about now if he were still in the race.

[Matty]

will rubio get 20% in early vote in wisconsin?

[Mr. Morden]

Cruz campaign manager Jeff Roe on Twitter:

Jeff Roe
@jeffroe
At the risk of going full Rove here, stay tuned to AZ. We will lose but not anywhere close to current margin and watch election day vote %.
8:58 PM - 22 Mar 2016

Lol, is he really trying to spin what might be a 15 point loss instead of a 20+ point loss into some kind of victory?

You gotta love politics. Rubio would be giving his participation trophy speech right about now if he were still in the race.

Even though he's out of the race, I still think he should give that participation trophy speech.

[Vosem]

will rubio get 20% in early vote in wisconsin?

Wisconsin early vote began on the 21st. So no, this is a onetime bounty.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

THANK YOU ARIZONA! EVEN THOUGH I DROPPED OUT A WEEK AGO, YOU STILL GAVE ME A 3RD PLACE FINISH! THEY SAID IT COULDN'T BE DONE BUT WE PROVED THEM WRONG!

[RI]

Utah should be closing shortly.

[cinyc]

More of the same in recent Utah tweets:
Howard M Headlee
‏@hmheadlee
Results in my Sandy precinct: @tedcruz 106; @JohnKasich 16; @realDonaldTrump 14 #utpol #GOP2016 #UtahCaucus
https://twitter.com/hmheadlee/status/712499603627761664

Sandy is a suburb of Salt Lake City in Salt Lake County.

Phil Windley
‏@windley
Results in my precinct (Lindon 04): @tedcruz 197; @JohnKasich 38; @realDonaldTrump 19 #utpol #GOP2016 #UtahCaucus
https://twitter.com/windley/status/712498762166325249

Lindon is a suburb of Provo in Utah County.

Deidre Henderson
‏@DeidreHenderson
Results in my Spanish Fork precinct: @tedcruz 173; @JohnKasich 21; @realDonaldTrump 21 #utpol #GOP2016 #UtahCaucus
https://twitter.com/DeidreHenderson/status/712498402232111106

Spanish Fork is in Utah County.

Carlo Bena
‏@CLo325
@BenWinslow precinct SLC141 voted 32 for Cruz 64%, 10 for Kasich 20%, and 8 for Trump 16%. #utpol #utahcaucus
https://twitter.com/CLo325/status/712495445851766784

Etc. Etc. Etc.