Republican Wild Western Tuesday results thread

[Alcon]

According to CNN Politics - Idaho GOP Primary Results 100%(?)
 http://www.cnn.com/politics

Cruz 45.4%
Trump 28.1%
Kasich 15.9%

Last week.  The Democrats are voting tonight.

[Alcon]

Cruz will beat "Other."  The Election Day votes in Maricopa County make that obvious.  Cruz's problem in mitigating the big loss, is that Trump may also be gaining some in Election Day votes.  Trump led Maricopa early votes 45.4%-20.2%.  He leads Election Day votes 53.7%-33.1%.  A huge improvement for Cruz, but also a big improvement for Trump.  If that pattern holds, Cruz will improve, but Trump may not decline much, or at all.  Caveat that it's only a few precincts, and Trump has fallen a bit in Yavapai with Election Day reports.

[Alcon]

Cruz campaign manager Jeff Roe on Twitter:

Jeff Roe
@jeffroe
At the risk of going full Rove here, stay tuned to AZ. We will lose but not anywhere close to current margin and watch election day vote %.
8:58 PM - 22 Mar 2016

I'm not sure where he's getting this.  Maybe he's extrapolating some of the Election Day results from tiny counties like Mohave, where Early Votes were 65%-17% and Election Day so far is 61%-33%.  The Maricopa Election Day numbers are small so far, but they do not tell that story.  Trump won early votes 45%-20%; Election Day votes have both candidates surging, 56%-32%.

Edit: Trump is now exhibiting a bigger improvement in Election Day ballots in Maricopa than Cruz, gaining 11.6% to Cruz 11.0%.  Trump is at 57.1% on Election Day, and Cruz at 31.2%.

[Alcon]

^ We have no way of knowing that, but it's also ridiculous to extrapolate a couple of precincts in the smaller counties to make a statement like Roe is, unless I'm missing a big county that's reported a lot of Election Night.

Yuma just reported some Election Day that substantially lowered the gap, though -- 49%-26% versus 48%-41% in the new batch.  I suppose it stands more of a chance of being representative, since it's 13% of the Yuma vote versus 4% in Maricopa.  Still, this is not much to go on.

My guess from these early results is that Maricopa is a bit of an anomaly, and Trump will stagnate some while Cruz surges.  Still, it's too early to conclude that with much confidence at all.

[Alcon]

None of Salt Lake City is in - I suspect that drowns out whatever numbers Trump has currently.

SLC is least mormon area and will be trump's best showing.

The Salt Lake City suburbs have a ton of Mormon voters, and a lot of the non-Mormons are Democrats.  The county voted Romney, remember.

Trump is being floated by right-wing Washington County (St. George), which IIRC has some right-wing non-Mormons.

[Alcon]

Salt Lake County
22/890 precincts

Cruz 63.9%
Kasich 21.2%
Trump 14.9%

I will prepare to accept my accolades.