Republican Wild Western Tuesday results thread

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

So, Arizona will be interesting, since they won't have an exit poll they wont be able to call it quickly. But there is no doubt that Trump will win her easily, unless Cruz massive outperforms his poll numbers. I bet Cruz goes over 50% in Utah with Kasich around 22-25%

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I can't vote in the AZ primaries, because I'm technically still living in Colorado. Won't be in AZ until June unfortunately.

Colorado will be super important too!

Colorado isn't doing a presidential preference vote.

Never mind i feel sad now... Cruz would've certainly won

But those delegates!

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

It's gonna be a pretty boring night though, we pretty much know Cruz will do well in UT with Trump doing well in AZ

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I read that the long lines are driving voters away, who will that hurt???

Probably Cruz, Trump has really dedicated voters, Cruz voters aren't as dedicated.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I read that the long lines are driving voters away, who will that hurt???

Probably Cruz, Trump has really dedicated voters, Cruz voters aren't as dedicated.

All evidence to date has pointed to the exact opposite of this statement. Cruz has always done significantly better in low-turnout environments.

But long lines are usually indicative of high turnout, so...

Yeah that's the problem so who knows? Trump voters are more dedicated, but they're less reliable on average than Cruz/Kasich voters.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I read that the long lines are driving voters away, who will that hurt???

Probably Cruz, Trump has really dedicated voters, Cruz voters aren't as dedicated.

the exact opposite is true.

Trump's voters are dedicated, but they're not reliable as a voting bloc, Cruz voters aren't as dedicated, but they are more reliable when it comes to voting. I'll concede that notion.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

are there a lot of latino republicans in AZ?

According to exit polls from Arizona in the last primary had Whites at 89%, Hispanics at 8%, Black/Asian/Other at 1%

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/epolls/az/

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Reports of exit polls showing Cruz with massive lead in Prescott Valley
Cruz - 50%
Trump - 33%
Kasich - 8%

(and tied in Prescott)

http://dcourier.com/news/2016/mar/22/courier-exit-polling-shows-cruz-leading-prescott-p/

~30-32 thousand people voted in Yavapai county in 2012's GOP primary IIRC, compared to Maricopa county it's nothing though.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

dude, if this exit poll showed trump up big, you would be all over it. Why the downplay?

Because it's not an official one? Because it is not Maricopa?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

dude, if this exit poll showed trump up big, you would be all over it. Why the downplay?

Because it's not an official one? Because it is not Maricopa?

ok but if that site is correct and had their prediction at trump +8, that is significant is it not?

Also, not downplaying it cause there is no need to.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Note that Benchmark had _trump winning Yavapai by 8 even as Cruz wins the state by 3 (and Maricopa County by 5). If Cruz is winning Yavapai by double-digits, he's probably winning the state as a whole by double-digits. (Though, on the other hand, I have no idea where Benchmark's numbers come from, and they feel sort of pulled out of their asses; in the past, Yavapai and Maricopa County usually vote almost identically, though Santorum was much stronger in Yavapai than Maricopa in 2012.)

But this random local newspaper has given us no reason to trust it, and Cruz+17 in Yavapai County would mean all polling in the state, including the most Cruz-favorable polls, were terribly, terribly off. I think Occam's Razor here is that this exit poll is just heavily flawed.

According to them, he's only leading in Prescott Valley, he's tied with Trump in Prescott.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I've had a feeling that Cruz will pull off an upset tonight, and the Yavapai exit poll seems to confirm that feeling.  Let's see what happens.

It's a random exit poll from a random paper, don't put too much stock in it.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I've had a feeling that Cruz will pull off an upset tonight, and the Yavapai exit poll seems to confirm that feeling.  Let's see what happens.

It's a random exit poll from a random paper, don't put too much stock in it.

What would it take for you to stop being so "bullish" on trump? I like your anti-trump views and efforts, but it seems too often you have lost hope and are hopeless about defeating him.

Because we have had problems with exit polls this cycle, plus I'm more cynical than anything. Plus, the vast majority of Arizonans have already voted.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

The race is gonna be decided in Maricopa county for the most part, I don't see any reason why Trump doesn't lose here since Arpaio and Brewer endorsed him.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I don't know why people are forgetting that 70% of the electorate has already voted. I can't imagine a small newspaper has the ability to take them into account.

70?? That seems hard to believe. And it doesn't jive with reports of massive lines.

I'm going based on this thread:

Early voting tea leaves in Arizona favor Clinton and Trump

Also we should just stop worry about an exit poll and just wait for 11pm ET. Results will come in very fast!

You mean 10? Polls close at 10pm actually

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

UT GOP caucuses close in 2 and a half hours right?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

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Lol.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Cruz will win UT, the question is if he finishes over or under 50%

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Autumn Cook
‏@autumnfcook
Lehi precinct 10 goes strong for #Cruz2016, pulls 209 votes to Kasich's 43 and Trump's 27. #utgop #utpol

https://twitter.com/autumnfcook/status/712473273322221568

Lehi, UT is in Utah County, north of Provo.  I think it's in Mia Love's district.

That's 75% for Cruz 15% for Kasich and 10% for TRUMP

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Those Rubio numbers

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

THANK YOU ARIZONA! EVEN THOUGH I DROPPED OUT A WEEK AGO, YOU STILL GAVE ME A 3RD PLACE FINISH! THEY SAID IT COULDN'T BE DONE BUT WE PROVED THEM WRONG!

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

First results coming in from UT:

cruz   1,505   
62.0%
0
trump   568   
23.4%
0
kasich   354   
14.6

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Kasich at 51% in Sevier county, UT

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Only on cnn will you hear them speak about cleavage multiple times on live tv when referring to Trump.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Utah is awfully slow at counting