Republican Wild Western Tuesday results thread

[cinyc]

According to a tweet from Dennis Lennox, who visited the territories for the Cruz campaign, the American Samoa caucus starts at 4:30PM local time, or 11:30PM Eastern.

[cinyc]

Samoa News has an article on today's American Samoa Republican caucus.  It will be held at the Veterans Memorial Center, which is where I think the Democratic caucus was held, starting at 4:30PM local time (11:30PM Eastern).  It is expected to end two hours later, so around 1:30AM Eastern. 

Cruz reported a message for the caucus.  Trump has supporters on the ground, too.  The delegates are unbound, so we might not learn much from the results, anyway.

[cinyc]

Let's dispel this fiction that Lyin' Ted has a chance in Arizona. 

Exactly

The polls have been wronger () before. Its entirely possible Cruz could pull some kind of upset, however I think Arizona is pretty fertile soil for the Trump message.

Last I checked, the Cruz campaign itself didn't even bother to advertise on Arizona TV.  A Cruz SuperPAC did advertise, though.  But if the Cruz campaign thought it had a chance at winning Arizona, wouldn't it have made at least a small ad buy there?

[cinyc]

Let's dispel this fiction that Lyin' Ted has a chance in Arizona. 

Exactly

The polls have been wronger () before. Its entirely possible Cruz could pull some kind of upset, however I think Arizona is pretty fertile soil for the Trump message.

Last I checked, the Cruz campaign itself didn't even bother to advertise on Arizona TV.  A Cruz SuperPAC did advertise, though.  But if the Cruz campaign thought it had a chance at winning Arizona, wouldn't it have made at least a small ad buy there?

I believe that Cruz Campaign played an ad titled "Grant" in Arizona.

They released two versions of an ad titled "Grant" on YouTube, but didn't buy any local network over-the-air TV spots to air it.  It's possible they made a cheaper cable buy to air it, though.

All I can tell you is that as of this weekend when I last checked the filings, the Cruz campaign wasn't up on Arizona over-the-air network TV like the Phoenix or Tucson ABC, CBS, NBC or FOX affiliates.

[cinyc]

While we have a long wait until any results from American Samoa, a quick reminder on why it might not be such fertile ground for Trump:

http://www.buzzfeed.com/mckaycoppins/why-romney-will-dominate-the-american-samoa-primar#.yy7wbBG9K

There literally were about 70 American Samoans who caucused for the Republicans in 2012.  They are probably not representative of the territory's population at large in many ways.  They are probably more white than Samoan, and may or may not be more Mormon.  The territory's major morning radio DJ is chairman of the American Samoans for Trump campaign, and is also fairly active in the territory's Republican party.  If he becomes a delegate, he'd likely support Trump.

The American Samoa delegation is supposed to be officially unpledged, anyway.

[cinyc]

While we have a long wait until any results from American Samoa, a quick reminder on why it might not be such fertile ground for Trump:

http://www.buzzfeed.com/mckaycoppins/why-romney-will-dominate-the-american-samoa-primar#.yy7wbBG9K

There literally were about 70 American Samoans who caucused for the Republicans in 2012.  They are probably not representative of the territory's population at large in many ways.  They are probably more white than Samoan, and may or may not be more Mormon.  The territory's major morning radio DJ is chairman of the American Samoans for Trump campaign, and is also fairly active in the territory's Republican party.  If he becomes a delegate, he'd likely support Trump.

The American Samoa delegation is supposed to be officially unpledged, anyway.

I really doubt some radio DJ will be able to change the voting patterns of heavily-Mormon areas that have stayed the same around the country, and I hope you realize unpledged delegates are mostly establishment hacks chosen for their loyalty to the #Never_trump movement.

You're assuming that Mormon American Samoans actually show up to vote in Republican caucuses.  That may or may not be the case, as native Samoans are less likely to care about off-island politics than whites who emigrated from elsewhere.  You're also forgetting that turnout in this caucus will be very low - likely fewer than 100.  The smaller the sample size, the less representative it is of the overall population.

[cinyc]

Decision Desk HQ ‏@DecisionDeskHQ  4h4 hours ago
Per the Vice-Chairman of the American Samoa GOP, John Raynar, results for their caucus will be available approximately 1:30am EDT.

Do they still think Hillary won Michigan?

While they may be god awful at calling races, I'm assuming they wouldn't just lie about American Samoan closing times for the fun of it.

The Samoa News article I linked upthread also said that the American Samoa caucuses start at 11:30 Eastern and should be over 2 hours later.  So Decision Desk HQ isn't lying.

[cinyc]

Bountiful, UT 17 tally, per Twitter:

Cruz 66
Kasich 41
Trump 12

[cinyc]

Bountiful, UT 17 tally, per Twitter:

Cruz 66
Kasich 41
Trump 12

That's pretty strong for Kasich.

Yeah jeez. It wont matter if Cruz is over 50%, but were is UT-17 located?

Precinct 17 in Bountiful, Utah, presumably.  Bountiful is in Davis County north of Salt Lake City.

[cinyc]

#CruzCrew
‏@seanhoward1985
@CNN @FoxNews One Utah caucus precinct vote in Provo, UT: Cruz 99, Kasich 23, Trump 19. @theblaze @glennbeck #UtahCaucus @utgop

https://twitter.com/seanhoward1985/status/712467583090466817

[cinyc]

Likely from St. George in Utah's Dixie (Washington County, southwestern part of the state):

JW Atkinson
‏@JWTrailScience
@tedcruz                   -72
@realDonaldTrump -39
@JohnKasich            -12
#UTCaucus #TedCruz2016 #CruzCrew

https://twitter.com/JWTrailScience/status/712470310189207553

[cinyc]

Autumn Cook
‏@autumnfcook
Lehi precinct 10 goes strong for #Cruz2016, pulls 209 votes to Kasich's 43 and Trump's 27. #utgop #utpol

https://twitter.com/autumnfcook/status/712473273322221568

Lehi, UT is in Utah County, north of Provo.  I think it's in Mia Love's district.

[cinyc]

Lady TheoloGOP
‏@TheoloGOP Lady TheoloGOP Retweeted Jacob Soboroff
Cruz 61
Kasich 8
Drumpf 6

Jacob's BREAKING NEWS from French Class in Millcreek UT!
#UtahCaucus #UTCaucus #maddow  

https://twitter.com/TheoloGOP/status/712472965359607809

Jacob is an MSNBC reporter.  Millcreek, UT is a town or two south of Salt Lake City, proper.

[cinyc]

Fox News projects Trump wins Arizona.

[cinyc]

LOL, other is beating Cruz in Arizona. The state is going to be just as embarrassing for Cruz as Utah will be for Trump. 

That other is beating Cruz is more an indictment of early voting, which should not exist absent good cause, than Cruz.  Carly Fiorina has 842 votes, for crying out loud.  Carson is at 3%.

[cinyc]

Cruz campaign manager Jeff Roe on Twitter:

Jeff Roe
@jeffroe
At the risk of going full Rove here, stay tuned to AZ. We will lose but not anywhere close to current margin and watch election day vote %.
8:58 PM - 22 Mar 2016

I'm not sure where he's getting this.  Maybe he's extrapolating some of the Election Day results from tiny counties like Mohave, where Early Votes were 65%-17% and Election Day so far is 61%-33%.  The Maricopa Election Day numbers are small so far, but they do not tell that story.  Trump won early votes 45%-20%; Election Day votes have both candidates surging, 56%-32%.

Are the partial Maricopa County election day results anywhere near representative of the county as a whole?  Is Mesa even reporting?  Or is it mainly Phoenix or West Valley?

[cinyc]

More of the same in recent Utah tweets:
Howard M Headlee
‏@hmheadlee
Results in my Sandy precinct: @tedcruz 106; @JohnKasich 16; @realDonaldTrump 14 #utpol #GOP2016 #UtahCaucus
https://twitter.com/hmheadlee/status/712499603627761664

Sandy is a suburb of Salt Lake City in Salt Lake County.

Phil Windley
‏@windley
Results in my precinct (Lindon 04): @tedcruz 197; @JohnKasich 38; @realDonaldTrump 19 #utpol #GOP2016 #UtahCaucus
https://twitter.com/windley/status/712498762166325249

Lindon is a suburb of Provo in Utah County.

Deidre Henderson
‏@DeidreHenderson
Results in my Spanish Fork precinct: @tedcruz 173; @JohnKasich 21; @realDonaldTrump 21 #utpol #GOP2016 #UtahCaucus
https://twitter.com/DeidreHenderson/status/712498402232111106

Spanish Fork is in Utah County.

Carlo Bena
‏@CLo325
@BenWinslow precinct SLC141 voted 32 for Cruz 64%, 10 for Kasich 20%, and 8 for Trump 16%. #utpol #utahcaucus
https://twitter.com/CLo325/status/712495445851766784

Etc. Etc. Etc.

[cinyc]

None of Salt Lake City is in - I suspect that drowns out whatever numbers Trump has currently.

SLC is least mormon area and will be trump's best showing.

Utah County isn't in, either, and that will be Trumps worst area, in theory.

[cinyc]

Per Twitter reports, about 24,600 Utah Republican votes were cast online, and will be included in the next data dump.

[cinyc]

Still nothing in the AP results from Utah County (Provo) or the ski-resorty Summit County (Park City).  It will be interesting to see if Trump's ski resort county win streak can continue in Summit.  I doubt it.

[cinyc]

Most of Summit County is in.  Cruz leads 44-30-26 over Trump and Kasich.  Trump actually did better in Carbon County (Price), where he lost to Cruz 59-34-7.  Both counties have fewer Mormons than the rest of the state.

Tiny Piute County was an even better county for Trump.  He lost it to Cruz 51-42-7.

[cinyc]

The AP calls Utah for Cruz.

[cinyc]

Fox News calls Utah for Cruz.

[cinyc]

Keep an eye on Grand County (Moab).  It's home to Arches National Park and the least-Mormon county in Utah.  The AP's initial results, presumably from the Internet voting, have Cruz up 8-7-4 over Trump and Kasich.  It could end up being Trump's best county in the state.  Its population is very small, though, and it won't impact the statewide results much.