Republican Wild Western Tuesday results thread (user search)
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  Republican Wild Western Tuesday results thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: Republican Wild Western Tuesday results thread  (Read 26326 times)
RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« on: March 22, 2016, 03:39:14 PM »
Quote from: Silent Cal on March 22, 2016, 03:06:19 PM
Quote from: Gass3268 on March 22, 2016, 02:53:18 PM
Quote from: Silent Cal on March 22, 2016, 02:46:04 PM
Quote from: 5280 on March 22, 2016, 02:04:53 PM
I can't vote in the AZ primaries, because I'm technically still living in Colorado. Won't be in AZ until June unfortunately.
Colorado will be super important too!

Colorado isn't doing a presidential preference vote.
Never mind i feel sad now... Cruz would've certainly won

Some counties did hold unofficial votes. Cruz won most of them.
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RI
realisticidealist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #1 on: March 22, 2016, 03:52:36 PM »
Quote from: Et tu, Tuesday? on March 22, 2016, 03:48:28 PM
Quote from: realisticidealist on March 22, 2016, 03:39:14 PM
Quote from: Silent Cal on March 22, 2016, 03:06:19 PM
Quote from: Gass3268 on March 22, 2016, 02:53:18 PM
Quote from: Silent Cal on March 22, 2016, 02:46:04 PM
Quote from: 5280 on March 22, 2016, 02:04:53 PM
I can't vote in the AZ primaries, because I'm technically still living in Colorado. Won't be in AZ until June unfortunately.
Colorado will be super important too!

Colorado isn't doing a presidential preference vote.
Never mind i feel sad now... Cruz would've certainly won

Some counties did hold unofficial votes. Cruz won most of them.

Do you have a link to those?

There isn't any one specific link; individual county Republican parties and local papers reported on them. You can see some of the results on my map.
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RI
realisticidealist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #2 on: March 22, 2016, 05:09:08 PM »
« Edited: March 22, 2016, 05:14:03 PM by realisticidealist »
Quote from: yankeesfan on March 22, 2016, 05:02:52 PM
http://www.benchmarkpolitics.com/?view=classic

Benchmark politics is tracking turnout pretty diligently.  Their prediction estimate released yesterday was Cruz 41% - Trump 38% - Kasich 13% - Other 8%

That's their benchmark model. It's not a prediction. The site is for looking at spreads between counties to make projections once numbers start coming in. Trump ran about 10% better than their benchmark last week, but the mark of whether they're successful is whether or not that 10% is consistent across counties.
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RI
realisticidealist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #3 on: March 22, 2016, 10:53:28 PM »
Cruz leading by 4 votes in Graham County, probably the most Mormon county in Arizona.
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RI
realisticidealist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #4 on: March 22, 2016, 11:06:36 PM »
Quote from: Badger on March 22, 2016, 11:06:17 PM
So AZ is WTA even without hitting 50%, or does Trump need a majority to take it all?

WTA regardless of percentage.
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RI
realisticidealist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #5 on: March 22, 2016, 11:15:25 PM »
Quote from: Holmes on March 22, 2016, 11:13:24 PM
edit: it's a Mormon-heavy county?

Yes
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RI
realisticidealist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #6 on: March 22, 2016, 11:50:22 PM »
Utah should be closing shortly.
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RI
realisticidealist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #7 on: March 23, 2016, 12:07:03 AM »
Utah numbers coming in on CNN. Cruz at 62%
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RI
realisticidealist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #8 on: March 23, 2016, 01:38:45 AM »
Quote from: Et tu, Tuesday? on March 23, 2016, 01:38:19 AM
Will Sevier County go for Kasich when the rest of it comes in?

Probably not
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RI
realisticidealist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #9 on: March 23, 2016, 01:41:15 AM »

It's already flipped to Cruz.
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RI
realisticidealist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #10 on: March 23, 2016, 01:43:29 AM »
Looks like Kasich's lead in Sevier was a typo all along.
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RI
realisticidealist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #11 on: March 23, 2016, 11:11:22 AM »
Quote from: Gustaf on March 23, 2016, 07:55:50 AM
Is there a way of knowing how Cruz did v Trump in election day voting as opposed to early voting in Arizona?

Not sure about statewide, but in Maricopa County, Trump is running about 4% better on election day, while essentially all of Rubio's vote went to Cruz. Kasich was static.
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