Republican Wild Western Tuesday results thread

[Gass3268]

I can't vote in the AZ primaries, because I'm technically still living in Colorado. Won't be in AZ until June unfortunately.

Colorado will be super important too!

Colorado isn't doing a presidential preference vote.

[Gass3268]

So, Arizona will be interesting, since they won't have an exit poll they wont be able to call it quickly. But there is no doubt that Trump will win her easily, unless Cruz massive outperforms his poll numbers. I bet Cruz goes over 50% in Utah with Kasich around 22-25%

Interesting enough having an exit poll might not matter. Arizona has a law that doesn't allow for precincts to report results until an hour after the vote ends. So you won't see any results until 11pm ET, then probably a massive vote dump with a call coming shortly after.

[Gass3268]

I can't vote in the AZ primaries, because I'm technically still living in Colorado. Won't be in AZ until June unfortunately.

Colorado will be super important too!

Colorado isn't doing a presidential preference vote.

Never mind i feel sad now... Cruz would've certainly won

But those delegates!

Yeah, Cruz is still going to get a huge majority of the delegates there. Probably more than if they actually had a caucus (like the past) or a primary (like the future).

[Gass3268]

Glendale, AZ apparently has super high turnout due to mail-in ballot receiving failures. High turnout in Maricopa County could be good for Cruz.

Hasn't high turnout always benefited Trump? Also this is the same county that's elected Joe Arpaio over and over again.

[Gass3268]

I don't know where in Arizona high turnout would signify a Cruz win - but it's certainly not old corrupt Arpaio's stomping ground of Maricopa.

Only place I could see Cruz doing well in Maricopa is Mesa. Big Mormon area. Also Graham and Navajo counties are between 20-25% Mormon, would not be shocked if he won those counties.

[Gass3268]

When is CNN switching over to Election Coverage?

It doesn't appear they'll be switching over anytime soon

The attacks in Belgium are awful, but I was hoping they would at least mix the coverage.

I'm hoping they'll switch over at the top of either the next two hours.  Erin Burnett normally comes on in 10 minutes and Anderson Cooper in 70 minutes.

MSNBC isn't going to switch coverage until it looks like 10pm. My guess is the other networks will be close to the same.

[Gass3268]

Note that Benchmark had _trump winning Yavapai by 8 even as Cruz wins the state by 3 (and Maricopa County by 5). If Cruz is winning Yavapai by double-digits, he's probably winning the state as a whole by double-digits. (Though, on the other hand, I have no idea where Benchmark's numbers come from, and they feel sort of pulled out of their asses; in the past, Yavapai and Maricopa County usually vote almost identically, though Santorum was much stronger in Yavapai than Maricopa in 2012.)

But this random local newspaper has given us no reason to trust it, and Cruz+17 in Yavapai County would mean all polling in the state, including the most Cruz-favorable polls, were terribly, terribly off. I think Occam's Razor here is that this exit poll is just heavily flawed.

I'm guessing that this could be just day of the election vote. I think Jan Brewer said about 70% of the electorate had already voted in early voting.

[Gass3268]

I don't know why people are forgetting that 70% of the electorate has already voted. I can't imagine a small newspaper has the ability to take them into account.

[Gass3268]

I don't know why people are forgetting that 70% of the electorate has already voted. I can't imagine a small newspaper has the ability to take them into account.

70?? That seems hard to believe. And it doesn't jive with reports of massive lines.

I'm going based on this thread:

Early voting tea leaves in Arizona favor Clinton and Trump

Also we should just stop worry about an exit poll and just wait for 11pm ET. Results will come in very fast!

[Gass3268]

I don't know why people are forgetting that 70% of the electorate has already voted. I can't imagine a small newspaper has the ability to take them into account.

70?? That seems hard to believe. And it doesn't jive with reports of massive lines.

I'm not sure what the exact percentage will be, but it's going to be very, very high.

As for anecdotes about long lines...they're about as useful an indicator as counting yard signs.

Long lines can be an indictor that it was a stupid idea to reduce polling sites by 70%.

[Gass3268]

I don't know why people are forgetting that 70% of the electorate has already voted. I can't imagine a small newspaper has the ability to take them into account.

70?? That seems hard to believe. And it doesn't jive with reports of massive lines.

I'm going based on this thread:

Early voting tea leaves in Arizona favor Clinton and Trump

Also we should just stop worry about an exit poll and just wait for 11pm ET. Results will come in very fast!

You mean 10? Polls close at 10pm actually

It's against Arizona law to release election results to the media until an hour after voting closes. We won't have an results until 11pm, but they should come in fast and quick.

[Gass3268]

This could perhaps be worse for Trump than we thought. It will be interesting to see how Wisconsin votes, because if early indications are that most of Rubios voters are going for Cruz around the country, not only does that doom Kasich, but it hurts Trump as well.

There hasn't been any indication really of that in the polling, also Utah really isn't representative of the country as a whole.

[Gass3268]

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[Gass3268]

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[Gass3268]

Congrats to Rubio supporters for running a strong 3rd! LOL!

[Gass3268]

LOL, other is beating Cruz in Arizona. The state is going to be just as embarrassing for Cruz as Utah will be for Trump. 

[Gass3268]

Any thoughts in if Trumps dominate victory in Arizona could be a key to New Mexico or is it too much like West Texas?

Also I have to imagine the results of of Arizona have to make the Trump campaign feel good about Southern California.

[Gass3268]

Keep an eye on Grand County (Moab).  It's home to Arches National Park and the least-Mormon county in Utah.  The AP's initial results, presumably from the Internet voting, have Cruz up 8-7-4 over Trump and Kasich.  It could end up being Trump's best county in the state.  Its population is very small, though, and it won't impact the statewide results much.

I am watching it for that reason. It might be the only county with Cruz under 50%. unless I am missing something.

And Sevier county, as has been already mentioned, was a total counting failure earlier, Kasich now has less votes than he was given earlier when he was supposedly leading.

Cruz got 53%

[Gass3268]

I wonder if Rubio could've gotten second had he stayed in.

It would have been another great second place victory.

[Gass3268]

Also wasn't Trump's winning % supposed to drop as the election day vote come in? Looks like that isn't happening.