Republican Wild Western Tuesday results thread

[Vosem]

I read that the long lines are driving voters away, who will that hurt???

Probably Cruz, Trump has really dedicated voters, Cruz voters aren't as dedicated.

All evidence to date has pointed to the exact opposite of this statement. Cruz has always done significantly better in low-turnout environments.

But long lines are usually indicative of high turnout, so...

[Vosem]

I read that the long lines are driving voters away, who will that hurt???

Probably Cruz, Trump has really dedicated voters, Cruz voters aren't as dedicated.

All evidence to date has pointed to the exact opposite of this statement. Cruz has always done significantly better in low-turnout environments.

But long lines are usually indicative of high turnout, so...

They reduced the number of polling places from 200 to 60 so is turnout really high? Who knows.

There are very long lines, therefore turnout is higher than expected. The number of polling places was presumably reduced because they felt the 200 were unnecessary.

[Vosem]

Note that Benchmark had _trump winning Yavapai by 8 even as Cruz wins the state by 3 (and Maricopa County by 5). If Cruz is winning Yavapai by double-digits, he's probably winning the state as a whole by double-digits. (Though, on the other hand, I have no idea where Benchmark's numbers come from, and they feel sort of pulled out of their asses; in the past, Yavapai and Maricopa County usually vote almost identically, though Santorum was much stronger in Yavapai than Maricopa in 2012.)

But this random local newspaper has given us no reason to trust it, and Cruz+17 in Yavapai County would mean all polling in the state, including the most Cruz-favorable polls, were terribly, terribly off. I think Occam's Razor here is that this exit poll is just heavily flawed.

[Vosem]

the exit poll does not have cruz leading the county, only prescott valley. the county is tie.

If Benchmark's numbers are reliable, the county being a tie is still a forecast of a decently comfortable Cruz victory. If they're totally off, and _trump is stronger in Maricopa than Yavapai (perfectly conceivable; I have no idea why Benchmark think Maricopa should be weaker for him than Yavapai), then _trump could still be good.

Also, I'm pretty sure 50-33 is the county total. Prescott (where the candidates are tied) and Prescott Valley (where percentages are not given, but Cruz is said to lead _trump "2-1") are two communities in Yavapai County.

[Vosem]

People seriously think Trump could lose AZ? The state is tailor made for him.

Arizona is not at all a tailor-made state for _trump; Republicans there tend to be wealthier, more suburban, and more educated, all things that have worked against him in the past. He could conceivably still win (OpinionSavvy did have him at 46 -- that's a high enough level), but he's not passing 50 here and a strong campaign could definitely have taken him down.

Neither Arpaio (who won by single-digits in 2012 in a double-digit Romney county that is more Republican downballot) nor Brewer is a particularly popular figure (last opinion poll had her at 44/42; a +2 rating), though Arpaio is liked by national anti-immigration groups. Neither is going to pull a large number of votes in AZ for _trump; if he does win here, it'll be for other reasons.

[Vosem]

While we have a long wait until any results from American Samoa, a quick reminder on why it might not be such fertile ground for Trump:

http://www.buzzfeed.com/mckaycoppins/why-romney-will-dominate-the-american-samoa-primar#.yy7wbBG9K

There literally were about 70 American Samoans who caucused for the Republicans in 2012.  They are probably not representative of the territory's population at large in many ways.  They are probably more white than Samoan, and may or may not be more Mormon.  The territory's major morning radio DJ is chairman of the American Samoans for Trump campaign, and is also fairly active in the territory's Republican party.  If he becomes a delegate, he'd likely support Trump.

The American Samoa delegation is supposed to be officially unpledged, anyway.

I really doubt some radio DJ will be able to change the voting patterns of heavily-Mormon areas that have stayed the same around the country, and I hope you realize unpledged delegates are mostly establishment hacks chosen for their loyalty to the #Never_trump movement.

[Vosem]

While we have a long wait until any results from American Samoa, a quick reminder on why it might not be such fertile ground for Trump:

http://www.buzzfeed.com/mckaycoppins/why-romney-will-dominate-the-american-samoa-primar#.yy7wbBG9K

There literally were about 70 American Samoans who caucused for the Republicans in 2012.  They are probably not representative of the territory's population at large in many ways.  They are probably more white than Samoan, and may or may not be more Mormon.  The territory's major morning radio DJ is chairman of the American Samoans for Trump campaign, and is also fairly active in the territory's Republican party.  If he becomes a delegate, he'd likely support Trump.

The American Samoa delegation is supposed to be officially unpledged, anyway.

I really doubt some radio DJ will be able to change the voting patterns of heavily-Mormon areas that have stayed the same around the country, and I hope you realize unpledged delegates are mostly establishment hacks chosen for their loyalty to the #Never_trump movement.

You're assuming that Mormon American Samoans actually show up to vote in Republican caucuses.  That may or may not be the case, as native Samoans are less likely to care about off-island politics than whites who emigrated from elsewhere.  You're also forgetting that turnout in this caucus will be very low - likely fewer than 100.  The smaller the sample size, the less representative it is of the overall population.

Mormons are very high-turnout, very Republican voters everywhere. Logically, the smaller the turnout the more Mormon the caucus should be. More good news for #Never_trump!

[Vosem]

will rubio get 20% in early vote in wisconsin?

Wisconsin early vote began on the 21st. So no, this is a onetime bounty.