Democratic Wild Western Tuesday results thread

[Mr. Morden]

Overview of all results: http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/map/president

Idaho caucuses
Caucuses begin at 6pm PT / 7pm MT, which is 9pm ET.

Idaho Democratic Party: http://idahodems.org
CNN: http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/id/Dem
NYT: http://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/primaries/idaho

Arizona primary
Polls close at 7pm local time, which is 10pm ET.

CNN: http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/az/Dem
NYT: http://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/primaries/arizona

Utah caucuses
Caucuses run from 6-8:30pm local time, which is 8-10:30pm ET

Utah Democratic Party: http://utahdemocrats.org/faq-caucus-night/
CNN: http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/ut/Dem
NYT: http://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/primaries/utah

[Mr. Morden]

National weather map:



Salt Lake City, UT:

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Boise, ID:

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Arizona: I’m assuming the weather is good.

[Eraserhead]

Will Arizona get an exit poll?

[Mr. Morden]

Will Arizona get an exit poll?

Looks like they won't, since they don't appear on Edison Research's webpage.  So no exit polls today.  We'll get one in Wisconsin a couple of weeks from now though.

[Zioneer]

So I'll be attending the Utah Democratic caucus tonight. I plan to vote for Sanders, despite supporting Clinton in the overall primary. If I can do some sort of write-in, I might.

[Wiz in Wis]

So I'll be attending the Utah Democratic caucus tonight. I plan to vote for Sanders, despite supporting Clinton in the overall primary. If I can do some sort of write-in, I might.

Wait... what?

[Zioneer]

So I'll be attending the Utah Democratic caucus tonight. I plan to vote for Sanders, despite supporting Clinton in the overall primary. If I can do some sort of write-in, I might.

Wait... what?

I support Clinton overall in the primary, as I feel she's more electable. However, I support Sanders in my own state's primary/caucus, as I feel that Utah progressives should be heard, and we should be encouraged to be braver on the issues. However, I also am not a huge fan of Clinton or Sanders due to their many weaknesses, and if I can write-in a different Democrat to show my displeasure with the lack of options (for example Elizabeth Warren), I might. It looks like Sanders will win the caucus in any case.

[Wiz in Wis]

So I'll be attending the Utah Democratic caucus tonight. I plan to vote for Sanders, despite supporting Clinton in the overall primary. If I can do some sort of write-in, I might.

Wait... what?

I support Clinton overall in the primary, as I feel she's more electable. However, I support Sanders in my own state's primary/caucus, as I feel that Utah progressives should be heard, and we should be encouraged to be braver on the issues. However, I also am not a huge fan of Clinton or Sanders due to their many weaknesses, and if I can write-in a different Democrat to show my displeasure with the lack of options (for example Elizabeth Warren), I might. It looks like Sanders will win the caucus in any case.

Ah, ok... that makes more sense. Thanks!

[Famous Mortimer]

Haha. That still makes no sense.

[Zioneer]

Haha. That still makes no sense.

Probably not, but I vote how I vote. I intend to vote Bernie (assuming write-in isn't available, which it hasn't been in prior midterm caucuses), in my state's caucus and Hillary in the general, assuming Hillary gets the nomination. I want to make a point by voting for the more lefty option in the primary, but I am perfectly happy with what I see as the more electable candidate winning the primary and hopefully the general.

[Beet]

If you vote for Sanders you support Sanders, but okay.

[Shadows]

Haha. That still makes no sense.

Probably not, but I vote how I vote. I intend to vote Bernie (assuming write-in isn't available, which it hasn't been in prior midterm caucuses), in my state's caucus and Hillary in the general, assuming Hillary gets the nomination. I want to make a point by voting for the more lefty option in the primary, but I am perfectly happy with what I see as the more electable candidate winning the primary and hopefully the general.

IMO ( & I may be wrong here) Clinton is a sure shot loser against a moderate GOP guy in the GE. Independents will ultimately decide who wins the GE & Sanders polls so strong among them (She will also get 0 Cross over from the GOP). Her only hope is for Trump or some weirdo divisive guy like that to represent the GOP as that is the only way she can win. I am not even going into Clinton's scandals vulnerability or her un-favorability ratings. But the dislike she has among the general public is weird, not even a 2 time President Obama has such dislike among the people even though the GOP establishment absolutely hates him to.

You should vote whether it is Clinton or Sanders.

I have a doubt - What is this Preference Poll - Caucus thing, they have 2 processes, which one is the one? I have a doubt that Sanders people ( a large amount of 1st time voters) would participate in the poll & be naive & go home. Can you shed some light on these 2 processes?

[Beet]

If "independents" decided elections president Romney's re-election campaign would be heating up.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Bernie should do well in Idaho and Utah, but Clinton will easily win Arizona

[Shadows]

If "independents" decided elections president Romney's re-election campaign would be heating up.

No President in the US history has won without independents who are 35-40% of the total base. Obama won independents over Romney & Romney failed in that aspect which is he won. Obama was very strong with independents even in the Dem primary.

You know the truth if you have break up Dems will be 20-30%, GOP will be 30-35% & Indies maybe 30-40%. All hypothetically. If any GOP candidate with a unified GOP base does well with independents, Dems will be swept out & won't win.

Pray that Trump is the candidate as against a moderate GOP guy, Hillary has no chance!

[Beet]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/fact-checker/post/overselling-the-importance-of-independent-voters/2012/11/19/1c04b598-3294-11e2-bfd5-e202b6d7b501_blog.html

[Wiz in Wis]

If "independents" decided elections president Romney's re-election campaign would be heating up.

No President in the US history has won without independents who are 35-40% of the total base. Obama won independents over Romney & Romney failed in that aspect which is he won. Obama was very strong with independents even in the Dem primary.

You know the truth if you have break up Dems will be 20-30%, GOP will be 30-35% & Indies maybe 30-40%. All hypothetically. If any GOP candidate with a unified GOP base does well with independents, Dems will be swept out & won't win.

Pray that Trump is the candidate as against a moderate GOP guy, Hillary has no chance!

You know the exit polls from 2012 still exist right?

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/race/president/

Romney won "independents" 50-45 in 2012.

[Lief 🗽]

If "independents" decided elections president Romney's re-election campaign would be heating up.

No President in the US history has won without independents who are 35-40% of the total base. Obama won independents over Romney & Romney failed in that aspect which is he won. Obama was very strong with independents even in the Dem primary.

You know the truth if you have break up Dems will be 20-30%, GOP will be 30-35% & Indies maybe 30-40%. All hypothetically. If any GOP candidate with a unified GOP base does well with independents, Dems will be swept out & won't win.

Pray that Trump is the candidate as against a moderate GOP guy, Hillary has no chance!

Stop lying. Obama lost independents in 2012 and still won 300+ electoral votes.

I know you and your cult leader have a tenuous grasp of "facts" and especially "math" but my god.

[JonathanSwift]

Interestingly, John Kerry also won independents, 49-48.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html

[Shadows]

If "independents" decided elections president Romney's re-election campaign would be heating up.

No President in the US history has won without independents who are 35-40% of the total base. Obama won independents over Romney & Romney failed in that aspect which is he won. Obama was very strong with independents even in the Dem primary.

You know the truth if you have break up Dems will be 20-30%, GOP will be 30-35% & Indies maybe 30-40%. All hypothetically. If any GOP candidate with a unified GOP base does well with independents, Dems will be swept out & won't win.

Pray that Trump is the candidate as against a moderate GOP guy, Hillary has no chance!

Stop lying. Obama lost independents in 2012 and still won 300+ electoral votes.

I know you and your cult leader have a tenuous grasp of "facts" and especially "math" but my god.

Change your name to "Fraud Lief" first after you got caught lying on the fundraising part - You are a notoriously bad poster  - And you should acknowledge that 1st & then we'll talk

[Shadows]

If "independents" decided elections president Romney's re-election campaign would be heating up.

No President in the US history has won without independents who are 35-40% of the total base. Obama won independents over Romney & Romney failed in that aspect which is he won. Obama was very strong with independents even in the Dem primary.

You know the truth if you have break up Dems will be 20-30%, GOP will be 30-35% & Indies maybe 30-40%. All hypothetically. If any GOP candidate with a unified GOP base does well with independents, Dems will be swept out & won't win.

Pray that Trump is the candidate as against a moderate GOP guy, Hillary has no chance!

You know the exit polls from 2012 still exist right?

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/race/president/

Romney won "independents" 50-45 in 2012.

50-45 is not much of a win? What was the sample size? There are response & sample biases in every survey & then you could argue if that sample represents the population.

50-45 over a small sample compared to the population means essentially shows no1 had a clear majority. Dems & GOP made 38% & 32% of the population meaning low turnout among the GOP & highly energized base of the Dem.

Either way independents barely had a role here (I didn't bother to check the facts but I know Obama had significant independent support).

Just to add BTW this is an exit poll - Exit poll which showed Sanders winning Mass by 5%, losing Okla by 10% & I could go on & on. They fail most of the times & vary. The data is not conclusive to prove Romney won independents.

[Shadows]

Interestingly, John Kerry also won independents, 49-48.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html

49-48 on an "Exit Poll" based on a very small sample trying to replicate the population. Clearly shows no1 had a decisive win if the sample represents the population.

1% is nothing, Kerry may lost by 2-3-4% the independent vote.

[/]

Interestingly, John Kerry also won independents, 49-48.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html

49-48 on an "Exit Poll" based on a very small sample trying to replicate the population. Clearly shows no1 had a decisive win if the sample represents the population.

1% is nothing, Kerry may lost by 2-3-4% the independent vote.

I wouldn't really trust the CNN exit polls when they use this picture for John Kerry's face:

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Exit polls weren't trustworthy, they predicted a President Kerry with a landslide majority, and look how that turned out.

[Wiz in Wis]

If "independents" decided elections president Romney's re-election campaign would be heating up.

No President in the US history has won without independents who are 35-40% of the total base. Obama won independents over Romney & Romney failed in that aspect which is he won. Obama was very strong with independents even in the Dem primary.

You know the truth if you have break up Dems will be 20-30%, GOP will be 30-35% & Indies maybe 30-40%. All hypothetically. If any GOP candidate with a unified GOP base does well with independents, Dems will be swept out & won't win.

Pray that Trump is the candidate as against a moderate GOP guy, Hillary has no chance!

You know the exit polls from 2012 still exist right?

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/race/president/

Romney won "independents" 50-45 in 2012.

50-45 is not much of a win? What was the sample size? There are response & sample biases in every survey & then you could argue if that sample represents the population.

50-45 over a small sample compared to the population means essentially shows no1 had a clear majority. Dems & GOP made 38% & 32% of the population meaning low turnout among the GOP & highly energized base of the Dem.

Either way independents barely had a role here (I didn't bother to check the facts but I know Obama had significant independent support).

Just to add BTW this is an exit poll - Exit poll which showed Sanders winning Mass by 5%, losing Okla by 10% & I could go on & on. They fail most of the times & vary. The data is not conclusive to prove Romney won independents.

National exit polls tend to have sample sizes of over 10,000 people. So... these are pretty reliable. Also, the final exit poll for Massachusetts (http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/ma/Dem) show's Hillary with 50.25% of the vote. Pretty accurate if you ask me.