Opinion of 538's initial nomination odds

[Lurker]

A complete joke, but they shouldn't feel too bad about that - few people made many correct predictions at that. However, they should be embarassed by their overreliance on the silly "endorsement points", as well as their absolute refusal to face the truth about Trump's potential chances (and Silver had his eyes closed for longer than virtually everyone else).

[IceSpear]

Bump!

[Bigby]

They had MIKE FINKSING PENCE, but not Trump?!

Political science is a joke.

[mencken]

They gave higher odds for 'Field' than I probably would have given at the time. 538 should not be condemned any more than political punditry as a whole for missing this black swan event.

[Nym90]

They gave higher odds for 'Field' than I probably would have given at the time. 538 should not be condemned any more than political punditry as a whole for missing this black swan event.

Yes, and since "field" ended up winning, they were more right than most.

[LLR]

They got Bernie right!

[Mr. Morden]

Ftr, here are our insights from the same era as those 538 odds:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=206751.0

[This account no longer in use.]

Herman Cain got more votes than Donald Trump. Disgraceful.

[Badger]

In fairness, they were pretty accurate on the Democratic side, and Trump's entry on the GOP side threw all conventional wisdom out the window. Plus, this was very, very early on.

In still doesn't redeem how bad 538 has been since then though.

[IceSpear]

In fairness, they were pretty accurate on the Democratic side, and Trump's entry on the GOP side threw all conventional wisdom out the window. Plus, this was very, very early on.

In still doesn't redeem how bad 538 has been since then though.

Nah, the Democratic side was sh*t too, just not as glaringly as the GOP side. Everyone besides Harry had Hillary way too low. I wouldn't necessarily object to giving Sanders straight 0s if they weren't gratuitously doling out points to people who OBVIOUSLY weren't running like Warren, Gillibrand, Cuomo, and Patrick, along with complete duds/non factors like O'Malley and Webb. At least Bernie had his cult candidate status going for him even this early, those two had squat.

[Mr. Morden]

In fairness, they were pretty accurate on the Democratic side, and Trump's entry on the GOP side threw all conventional wisdom out the window. Plus, this was very, very early on.

In still doesn't redeem how bad 538 has been since then though.

Nah, the Democratic side was sh*t too, just not as glaringly as the GOP side. Everyone besides Harry had Hillary way too low. I wouldn't necessarily object to giving Sanders straight 0s if they weren't gratuitously doling out points to people who OBVIOUSLY weren't running like Warren, Gillibrand, Cuomo, and Patrick, along with complete duds/non factors like O'Malley and Webb. At least Bernie had his cult candidate status going for him even this early, those two had squat.

Gillibrand, Patrick, etc., weren't running because Clinton was.  The premise of Clinton not getting the nomination at that point was that some black swan event, like a heart attack or a massive as-yet-unknown scandal would stop Clinton from running, which would presumably result in additional people getting in the race.

[Volrath50]

Better than Atlas's.

Yeah. 538 aren't clairvoyants. People here love to trash them if they get something wrong, when the most common "predictions" made on this forum are usually that whatever happened yesterday will continue forever.

I think I got whiplash from how quickly Atlas switched between positions. From my own recollection, it went something like this:

Trump leading Iowa Polls: TRUMP IS INEVITABLE
Rubio "wins" by getting third: RUBIO IS THE NOMINEE
Rubio has a bad debate: RUBIO'S ENTIRE CAREER IS OVER
Trump does well, Cruz badly, in NH, SC, NV: IT'S GONNA BE TRUMP v RUBIO, CRUZ IS DEAD
Trump does well on Super Tuesday: IT'S TRUMP, HE'S GONNA CLINCH ON MAR 15
Trump has a weak Saturday Primary (KY, LA): CRUZ IS THE NOMINEE, TRUMP IS OVER
Trump has a good Mar 15, but loses OH: CONTESTED CONVENTION, HERE WE COME
Trump loses WI: IT'S OVER FOR TRUMP, CONTESTED CONVENTION 100%
Trump wins NY: TRUMP HAD IT ALL ALONG

[IceSpear]

Better than Atlas's.

Yeah. 538 aren't clairvoyants. People here love to trash them if they get something wrong, when the most common "predictions" made on this forum are usually that whatever happened yesterday will continue forever.

I think I got whiplash from how quickly Atlas switched between positions. From my own recollection, it went something like this:

Trump leading Iowa Polls: TRUMP IS INEVITABLE
Rubio "wins" by getting third: RUBIO IS THE NOMINEE
Rubio has a bad debate: RUBIO'S ENTIRE CAREER IS OVER
Trump does well, Cruz badly, in NH, SC, NV: IT'S GONNA BE TRUMP v RUBIO, CRUZ IS DEAD
Trump does well on Super Tuesday: IT'S TRUMP, HE'S GONNA CLINCH ON MAR 15
Trump has a weak Saturday Primary (KY, LA): CRUZ IS THE NOMINEE, TRUMP IS OVER
Trump has a good Mar 15, but loses OH: CONTESTED CONVENTION, HERE WE COME
Trump loses WI: IT'S OVER FOR TRUMP, CONTESTED CONVENTION 100%
Trump wins NY: TRUMP HAD IT ALL ALONG

But isn't the whole point of sites like 538 to be much smarter and insightful than us mere peons?

[Figueira]

Better than Atlas's.

Yeah. 538 aren't clairvoyants. People here love to trash them if they get something wrong, when the most common "predictions" made on this forum are usually that whatever happened yesterday will continue forever.

I think I got whiplash from how quickly Atlas switched between positions. From my own recollection, it went something like this:

Trump leading Iowa Polls: TRUMP IS INEVITABLE
Rubio "wins" by getting third: RUBIO IS THE NOMINEE
Rubio has a bad debate: RUBIO'S ENTIRE CAREER IS OVER
Trump does well, Cruz badly, in NH, SC, NV: IT'S GONNA BE TRUMP v RUBIO, CRUZ IS DEAD
Trump does well on Super Tuesday: IT'S TRUMP, HE'S GONNA CLINCH ON MAR 15
Trump has a weak Saturday Primary (KY, LA): CRUZ IS THE NOMINEE, TRUMP IS OVER
Trump has a good Mar 15, but loses OH: CONTESTED CONVENTION, HERE WE COME
Trump loses WI: IT'S OVER FOR TRUMP, CONTESTED CONVENTION 100%
Trump wins NY: TRUMP HAD IT ALL ALONG

This is pretty accurate. And that's not even including what people thought before the primaries.

[Lurker]

Nate Silver was overrated in the first place (for all his good work, what made the media label him a genius was producing results that could essentially be replicated by looking at the RCP average) - but in this election, his analysis has truly been of Dick Morris-like quality.

And while you obviously can't blame the 538 crew for failing to predict Trump's rise a year ago, that doesn't excuse them from sticking their heads in the sand for such a long time (and desperately clinging to the "Endorsement points" model, which was dubious in the first place, despite mounting evidence).

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Better than Atlas's.

Yeah. 538 aren't clairvoyants. People here love to trash them if they get something wrong, when the most common "predictions" made on this forum are usually that whatever happened yesterday will continue forever.

I think I got whiplash from how quickly Atlas switched between positions. From my own recollection, it went something like this:

Trump leading Iowa Polls: TRUMP IS INEVITABLE
Rubio "wins" by getting third: RUBIO IS THE NOMINEE
Rubio has a bad debate: RUBIO'S ENTIRE CAREER IS OVER
Trump does well, Cruz badly, in NH, SC, NV: IT'S GONNA BE TRUMP v RUBIO, CRUZ IS DEAD
Trump does well on Super Tuesday: IT'S TRUMP, HE'S GONNA CLINCH ON MAR 15
Trump has a weak Saturday Primary (KY, LA): CRUZ IS THE NOMINEE, TRUMP IS OVER
Trump has a good Mar 15, but loses OH: CONTESTED CONVENTION, HERE WE COME
Trump loses WI: IT'S OVER FOR TRUMP, CONTESTED CONVENTION 100%
Trump wins NY: TRUMP HAD IT ALL ALONG

And for the Democrats:

Very Early on: HILLARY IS ULTRA-VULNERABLE/ISN'T EVEN GOING TO RUN
Once she started locking up endorsements as she got closer to running: ICESPEAR'S RIGHT, PEOPLE. SHE'S INEVITABLE.
When Sanders entered: OH, SOME VERMONT SOCIALIST. HE'LL LOSE EVERY PRIMARY BY 40 POINTS.
When Hillary had her September slump and it looked like Biden might actually jump in: HILLARY IS FALLING DRAMATICALLY! YAHOO! YEAH!
After the first debate/benghazi hearing: HILLARY HAS LOCKED UP THE EARLY STATES, WELP.
After Bernie won NH: 40% BERNIE IN SOUTH CAROLINA HERE WE COME!!!
After the SC disaster: CLINTON WILL WIN EVERYTHING EXCEPT VERMONT ON SUPER TUESDAY!!!
In the lead up to Michigan: POLLING IS GOSPEL, MICHIGAN WILL BE A LANDSLIDE EVEN THOUGH BOTH CANDIDATES BELIEVE IT'S CLOSE
After Michigan: OHIO IS SAFE SANDERS!! SAFE I TELL YOU!!!
After Sanders 8 for 9 sweep: NY IS COMPETITIVE!! (to be fair, I fell victim to this too)

[emailking]

Better than Atlas's.

Yeah. 538 aren't clairvoyants. People here love to trash them if they get something wrong, when the most common "predictions" made on this forum are usually that whatever happened yesterday will continue forever.

I think I got whiplash from how quickly Atlas switched between positions. From my own recollection, it went something like this:

Trump leading Iowa Polls: TRUMP IS INEVITABLE
Rubio "wins" by getting third: RUBIO IS THE NOMINEE
Rubio has a bad debate: RUBIO'S ENTIRE CAREER IS OVER
Trump does well, Cruz badly, in NH, SC, NV: IT'S GONNA BE TRUMP v RUBIO, CRUZ IS DEAD
Trump does well on Super Tuesday: IT'S TRUMP, HE'S GONNA CLINCH ON MAR 15
Trump has a weak Saturday Primary (KY, LA): CRUZ IS THE NOMINEE, TRUMP IS OVER
Trump has a good Mar 15, but loses OH: CONTESTED CONVENTION, HERE WE COME
Trump loses WI: IT'S OVER FOR TRUMP, CONTESTED CONVENTION 100%
Trump wins NY: TRUMP HAD IT ALL ALONG

But isn't the whole point of sites like 538 to be much smarter and insightful than us mere peons?

They are.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Pundits.  True.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WjCuS2XDaOI

[IceSpear]

Better than Atlas's.

Yeah. 538 aren't clairvoyants. People here love to trash them if they get something wrong, when the most common "predictions" made on this forum are usually that whatever happened yesterday will continue forever.

I think I got whiplash from how quickly Atlas switched between positions. From my own recollection, it went something like this:

Trump leading Iowa Polls: TRUMP IS INEVITABLE
Rubio "wins" by getting third: RUBIO IS THE NOMINEE
Rubio has a bad debate: RUBIO'S ENTIRE CAREER IS OVER
Trump does well, Cruz badly, in NH, SC, NV: IT'S GONNA BE TRUMP v RUBIO, CRUZ IS DEAD
Trump does well on Super Tuesday: IT'S TRUMP, HE'S GONNA CLINCH ON MAR 15
Trump has a weak Saturday Primary (KY, LA): CRUZ IS THE NOMINEE, TRUMP IS OVER
Trump has a good Mar 15, but loses OH: CONTESTED CONVENTION, HERE WE COME
Trump loses WI: IT'S OVER FOR TRUMP, CONTESTED CONVENTION 100%
Trump wins NY: TRUMP HAD IT ALL ALONG

But isn't the whole point of sites like 538 to be much smarter and insightful than us mere peons?

They are.

Weren't they insisting Trump would fizzle out well into November/December? lol

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Better than Atlas's.

Yeah. 538 aren't clairvoyants. People here love to trash them if they get something wrong, when the most common "predictions" made on this forum are usually that whatever happened yesterday will continue forever.

I think I got whiplash from how quickly Atlas switched between positions. From my own recollection, it went something like this:

Trump leading Iowa Polls: TRUMP IS INEVITABLE
Rubio "wins" by getting third: RUBIO IS THE NOMINEE
Rubio has a bad debate: RUBIO'S ENTIRE CAREER IS OVER
Trump does well, Cruz badly, in NH, SC, NV: IT'S GONNA BE TRUMP v RUBIO, CRUZ IS DEAD
Trump does well on Super Tuesday: IT'S TRUMP, HE'S GONNA CLINCH ON MAR 15
Trump has a weak Saturday Primary (KY, LA): CRUZ IS THE NOMINEE, TRUMP IS OVER
Trump has a good Mar 15, but loses OH: CONTESTED CONVENTION, HERE WE COME
Trump loses WI: IT'S OVER FOR TRUMP, CONTESTED CONVENTION 100%
Trump wins NY: TRUMP HAD IT ALL ALONG

But isn't the whole point of sites like 538 to be much smarter and insightful than us mere peons?

They are.

Laughable. Very few on AAD ever wavered on Trump being the nominee since July except in a scenario where it was stolen from him. That is true brilliance. Lief and several others also called Cruz winning Iowa 4 months ahead of that too.