How do you explain the betting market's high odds Trump has of winning the G.E.?
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Author Topic: How do you explain the betting market's high odds Trump has of winning the G.E.?  (Read 472 times)
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dxu8888
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« on: March 23, 2016, 12:52:36 PM »
Right now predictIt has Trump at 27% chance to win the general election, with a 70% chance to clinch the GOP nomination. This implies he has a 38% chance to beat the democratic nominee in a general election.

The consensus on Atlas seem to be that Trump has less than a 50% chance to win and a 10% chance to beat Clinton.

How do you explain these high odds? Is the betting market overvalued/wrong?
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
Sprouts
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« Reply #1 on: March 23, 2016, 12:56:31 PM »
The betting market is always wrong, but an underdog always has some speculative value due to the long timeframe between now and the event. 38% implied (even though it's lower) is far too high however.
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°Leprechaun
tmcusa2
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« Reply #2 on: March 23, 2016, 01:04:09 PM »
Maybe someone has been drinking too much?
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #3 on: March 23, 2016, 01:07:05 PM »
Quote from: TN volunteer on March 23, 2016, 12:56:01 PM
Quote from: dxu8888 on March 23, 2016, 12:52:36 PM
The consensus on Atlas seem to be that Trump has less than a 50% chance to win and a 10% chance to beat Clinton.

Atlas predictions shouldn't be taken seriously.

TRUMP is Romney 2.0, NE GOPer that doesnt play well in South
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #4 on: March 23, 2016, 01:15:26 PM »
Quote from: Da-Jon on March 23, 2016, 01:07:05 PM
TRUMP is Romney 2.0, NE GOPer that doesnt play well in South
What? The exact opposite is true.
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Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin
Runeghost
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« Reply #5 on: March 23, 2016, 02:23:38 PM »
Quote from: dxu8888 on March 23, 2016, 12:52:36 PM
Right now predictIt has Trump at 27% chance to win the general election, with a 70% chance to clinch the GOP nomination. This implies he has a 38% chance to beat the democratic nominee in a general election.

The consensus on Atlas seem to be that Trump has less than a 50% chance to win and a 10% chance to beat Clinton.

How do you explain these high odds? Is the betting market overvalued/wrong?

There are a lot of stupid people.
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RaphaelDLG
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« Reply #6 on: March 23, 2016, 07:03:01 PM »
Predictit, like that one from 8 years ago that I forget, has slight and predictable biases in favor of Trump and Sanders.  Betfair is much, much better:

https://www.betfairpredicts.com/
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Xing
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« Reply #7 on: March 23, 2016, 07:08:14 PM »
It makes sense to me that a lot of people give the candidate they hear about the most a good chance of winning. It doesn't qualify as expert analysis, but let's not pretend most people are expert analysts.
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Beet
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« Reply #8 on: March 23, 2016, 07:09:26 PM »
38% isn't high. A major party nominee has a significant chance to win, regardless of what things look like at a given point in time.
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Panhandle Progressive
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« Reply #9 on: March 23, 2016, 07:25:39 PM »
Quote from: RaphaelDLG on March 23, 2016, 07:03:01 PM
Predictit, like that one from 8 years ago that I forget, has slight and predictable biases in favor of Trump and Sanders.  Betfair is much, much better:

https://www.betfairpredicts.com/

IMHO this site is pretty close to what should be current odds, although slightly too high for Hillary and slightly too low for Trump.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #10 on: March 23, 2016, 07:31:45 PM »
Quote from: dxu8888 on March 23, 2016, 12:52:36 PM
Right now predictIt has Trump at 27% chance to win the general election, with a 70% chance to clinch the GOP nomination. This implies he has a 38% chance to beat the democratic nominee in a general election.

The consensus on Atlas seem to be that Trump has less than a 50% chance to win and a 10% chance to beat Clinton.

Huh?  What makes you think that's the consensus here?
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