Clinton or Sanders/Trump/a conservative independent
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 26, 2024, 09:31:10 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential Election
  Clinton or Sanders/Trump/a conservative independent
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Clinton or Sanders/Trump/a conservative independent  (Read 456 times)
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,859
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: March 23, 2016, 04:13:38 PM »

Blank map.



I am showing a color and shade only for States in which someone gets a majority or leads by 10%; electoral breakdown for states in which neither condition is met, in D-R-I order. D will be one color; Maine and Nebraska districts will not be so separated. White is for a tie at the top. To show how this works I will show a Democrat winning Maine 52-28-20 but losing the Second district, an Independent winning New Hampshire each with more than 40%,  a Republican winning Vermont, a 46-46-8 tie in California, a Republican winning Nevada 38-33-29, a Democrat winning 40-37-33 in Arizona, an Independent winning New Mexico 42-35-23. Illustrative to show the color scheme and nothing else.

White is for ties. Even leads in the thirties of 1% or more will be shown in the color of the winner.

Solely for showing the color scheme



Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
unnamed conservative independent (I)

I have only one state so reported, by PPP, and it is the state that PPP polls most often. Guess what state!

While 81-82% of Republicans would support Cruz or Kasich over Clinton, only 73% say they
would vote for Trump. He has a 31/58 favorability rating in the state, and his unpopularity is such that 15-18% of voters- including 22-25% of Republicans- say they would vote for a conservative independent candidate if (Trump would be)  the nominee and that (would be) an option for them.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NC_32216.pdf

Clinton-Trump-unnamed conservative independent



Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
unnamed conservative independent (I)




Sanders (D)
Trump (R)
unnamed conservative independent (I)
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,722
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: March 23, 2016, 04:21:53 PM »
« Edited: March 23, 2016, 04:27:38 PM by Da-Jon »

If anyone , it would be Rick Perry
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,859
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: April 25, 2016, 12:18:46 PM »

I'm locking this thread because I have begun to cover this in the statewide polling for the general election of 2016.
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,859
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: June 06, 2016, 08:01:20 PM »

I hereby revive this thread because I have seen several polls suggesting a three-way choice. I can easily imagine Gary Johnson getting 10% or more of the popular vote in some states.

Note that unlike in the binary polls I have no reserve minimum of 40% for a potential win. One can win one of the states involved 38-34-28.

I will use green for the libertarian candidacy of Gary Johnson and William Weld.   
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.063 seconds with 13 queries.