What has Trump done for his numbers to collapse nationally?

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

He's trailing Hillary by double digits in multiple GE polls. Just back in December he was competitive, after his proposal to ban Muslims and months after his Mexican rapist comments.

[Matty]

protests.

[Fargobison]

It is amazing....



A lot of it has to do with having a rabid base of support and not much else. He has splintered the party and a lot of Republicans and conservatives want nothing to do with him. There will be little to no rallying around him.

I am enjoying today, watching his supporters meltdown is fun.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Some of this are conservative Republicans who won't vote for Trump, but won't vote for Clinton, either.  I predict that most of them will come around.

I also predict that Trump will be far more competitive than folks think now.  Everyone on both sides is ganging up on him, but he keeps RISING in the GOP polls.  Perhaps Hillary is peaking too soon.

[Fargobison]

Some of this are conservative Republicans who won't vote for Trump, but won't vote for Clinton, either.  I predict that most of them will come around.

I also predict that Trump will be far more competitive than folks think now.  Everyone on both sides is ganging up on him, but he keeps RISING in the GOP polls.  Perhaps Hillary is peaking too soon.

I don't know, I think we've hit the point of no return. Trump needed to rally the party around him after Super Tuesday, instead he just drove more away and continues to do it every day. He has a bunch of hacks running his campaign, I am not very optimistic.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

He stopped being plausibly presidential.

The constant stream of threats and  insults, the violence, the endless lying, the dick size thing, hawking his own crap branded products like an hour-long infomercial,  and the realization that yes, he really is that ignorant and stupid all added up to "I'd don't want to see this guy as President of the United States" for too many people.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Some of this are conservative Republicans who won't vote for Trump, but won't vote for Clinton, either.  I predict that most of them will come around.

I also predict that Trump will be far more competitive than folks think now.  Everyone on both sides is ganging up on him, but he keeps RISING in the GOP polls.  Perhaps Hillary is peaking too soon.

I don't know, I think we've hit the point of no return. Trump needed to rally the party around him after Super Tuesday, instead he just drove more away and continues to do it every day. He has a bunch of hacks running his campaign, I am not very optimistic.

I think you underestimate Trump's campaign.  Look what he's done to date with these "hacks".

Trump loses votes in GE polls now because there are Establishment GOPers who just can't or won't stomach him, for reasons already discussed.  The key here to Trump's rebound is that even those who speak harshly of him (e. g. calling him a "con man") still say they're going to vote for him over Hillary Clinton.  Once Trump is the clear nominee, the GOP Establishment will have to stop actively pulling against him in order to save downballot races. 

[Lincoln Republican]

His all encompassing bigotry, his non denial of the KKK, his promise to carpet bomb babies and toddlers, are all catching up with him.

[Mehmentum]

The GOP's civil war is tearing it apart.

[DINGO Joe]

He's trailing Hillary by double digits in multiple GE polls. Just back in December he was competitive, after his proposal to ban Muslims and months after his Mexican rapist comments.

Reality

[Mr. Morden]

He's trailing Hillary by double digits in multiple GE polls. Just back in December he was competitive, after his proposal to ban Muslims and months after his Mexican rapist comments.

Ah, but one key thing has changed since then:

[Pandaguineapig]

The GOP's civil war is tearing it apart.

Not really senate polling and Cruz and kasich haven't dropped

[Lyin' Steve]

#nevertrump republicans pressing 1 for Clinton would be my guess.  How are the Trump/Sanders numbers?  Same trend?

[Orthogonian Society Treasurer]

The GOP having a giant, collective temper tantrum. Trump's numbers will normalize after the convention.

[Bigby]

The GOP having a giant, collective temper tantrum. Trump's numbers will normalize after the convention.

This. It's still a long way from July and an even longer way until November. This is just a consequence of the heated fight on the GOP side.

[Maxwell]

The ultimate problem that Trump has will be undecided voters and voters deciding last minute - If Trump is going to win the general, he has to probably have to be polling consistently above 50%. Because at least in the primaries, every time the polls close, a large chunk of voters have something I like to call the "wait, seriously" factor, and a lot of the races are closer than polled.

[Mr. Morden]

The GOP having a giant, collective temper tantrum. Trump's numbers will normalize after the convention.

This. It's still a long way from July and an even longer way until November. This is just a consequence of the heated fight on the GOP side.

It's absolutely possible that Trump will be able to stop the bleeding among Republican voters, but I'd hardly treat it as a sure thing.  All indications are that, among recent major party nominees (he's not quite the nominee yet, but hypothetically, let's say he wins the nomination) he's pretty much the most polarizing recent nominee among voters within his own party.  See, e.g., our friend Nate Silver on this topic.  Or see almost any of these GOP primary polls or exit polls, that show that while Trump has the most committed supporters within the party, he also has the most committed detractors.  There's also the fact that the party is at risk of (at least temporarily) tearing itself apart over a contested convention, which may well result in a Trump nomination anyway, but would still be pretty ugly.

All of this goes beyond the normal "PUMA" stuff that comes from a tough nomination fight, no?  Maybe it'll come to nothing in the end, but it's still unusual.

[Fuzzy Bear]

The GOP having a giant, collective temper tantrum. Trump's numbers will normalize after the convention.

I believe that, yes, his numbers will normalize if he's the nominee.  If he's not, the nominee's numbers will UN-normalize.

[RightBehind]

The only way I can see Trump's numbers normalizing is if he moves center and starts acting more civil. I've never seen any candidate give so much ammunition to the other side.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

What hasn't he done?

[ProudModerate2]

The only way I can see Trump's numbers normalizing is if he moves center and starts acting more civil. I've never seen any candidate give so much ammunition to the other side.

"Normalizing" will only help in a minor way. People will not forget all the bulls**t hatred and multitude of un-presidential conduct directly from trump (not just from his campaign).

And as you say trump has given "so much ammunition" to the Dem's. They are going to use this ammunition like crazy, in numerous ads portraying trump as a big joke (for what he really is).
This is a serious job (POTUS), and trump acting like a candidate in a clown suit will kill his chances.

[ProudModerate2]

It is amazing....

Truly is amazing. This is based on the RCP average of polls too.
And, this image must have been taken earlier today. It shows that Clinton has the advantage with a spread of +10.5

But there was one or two more very recent polls that were added later this afternoon which now shows the spread even greater to Hillary's advantage. The RCP average spread is now +11.4 for Hillary.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Trump doesn't have a pause button. He's a narcissistic child. When people thought Trump would start playing serious politics after blowing away his competitors in Nevada and Super Tuesday, they were wrong. The Trump Train cannot stop until it drives itself off the cliff.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Trump doesn't have a pause button. He's a narcissistic child. When people thought Trump would start playing serious politics after blowing away his competitors in Nevada and Super Tuesday, they were wrong. The Trump Train cannot stop until it drives itself off the cliff.

There was a very big meme for a while floating around that Trump was some sort of master social strategist, that all his moves were deliberate and carefully planned. It was like Obama's supposed 'thee-dimensional chess' politics.

As time goes on, it becomes more and more obvious that what happened is there was a big gaping crack full of toxic sewage in the Republican base, and Trump fell right into it. Rather than jumping out, or dying from the exposure, he found himself right at home and has spent the whole primary season wallowing around in it.

To borrow Gertrude Stein's words, "there is no there there". There's no big plan, there's no next step. Trump's campaign is just Trump -  opportunistic, narcissistic, ignorant, petty, vicious and vile with a facile line of patter.

[Erc]

Perhaps, as Trump's nomination becomes more and more likely, those polled are taking the question more seriously?

Before, some people who may have said "sure, I'd vote for Trump in this hypothetical matchup" are now being faced with the stark reality that it is likely actually going to be Clinton vs. Trump, realizing it's not fun and games anymore, and voting for the adult in the room.