Nyman Weekly

[Mike Thick]

Hello, all! This is the thread of Nyman Weekly -- an Atlasian newspaper dedicated to political and electoral analysis, interviews with public figures, and general coverage of happenings on the hill and around the country. Articles will be published weekly (shocker, right?) on Sundays, with occasional exceptions like election weekends, when pieces will be published earlier. If you have an idea for an article, would like me to interview you, or would like to publish an opinion piece, PM me!

Thanks!
-Editor-in-chief Ted Bessell

[Mike Thick]

ISSUE #1: Sitting down with Leinad/Analysis of the Southern Gubernatorial Election
An Interview with Leinad: Yes, He's Running for Senate

Southern Governor and February 2016 Federalist Presidential Nominee Leinad

Yesterday, we were lucky enough to have outgoing Southern Governor and former Presidential nominee Leinad in for an interview.

We're glad to have you here, Governor.

Thanks for the interview, Ted! It's nice to be here in the Pacific, both for your interview and the recovery from the tragic terrorist attacks last week that occurred here.

1. A recent ISIS plot targeted Florida. What are you doing to prevent future attacks?

Well, we're working with the federal government and the National Guard to find threats. The Southern National Guard has been mobilized by executive order, and I think the fact we've kept one eye open for terrorism was the reason why 21 potential terrorists are now in custody, instead of on the front pages after engaging in an attack on Southern citizens.

2. You've endorsed Southeast Speaker Haslam to succeed you. Why is he the best person to replace you in the Governor's Mansion?

I think this is an important time in Atlasia. With the ConCon nearing completion, we need this era of Atlasia to leave a good taste in everyone's mouth, shall we say. The most important thing is activity. Haslam has been one of the two most active members of the Southern government since his election back in November, and along with that other member I alluded to is most responsible for turning the Southern government from me and the janitor in an empty building to a bustling center of activity. That activity and nearly five-month record of leadership equips him to end the Old South on a high and jump-start us for the Atlasia that is to come.

Haslam is more moderate than I am, but I trust him to continue the tradition of the South as a region of limited government, where individual liberty flourishes for all. With the reset, however, I think activity is more important, and that makes voting for Haslam a no-brainer.

3. What do you plan to do as a member of Governors Against Extremism to reduce violent extremism in Atlasia?

I think we need to actively combat extremism, violence, and hatred in Atlasia and across the world. This isn't a job for creating new laws and calling the problem "fixed." Yes, maybe some government action is needed, but that's never what fixes societal problems. We need to engage with our communities and encourage others to engage in theirs, we need to send the message that Atlasia is a place of peace and liberty--everyone has the freedom to believe what they want, and live how they want, and to disagree how they want--but not through violence!

Hopefully the five Governors can work together to spread this message, and yes, do what exists within the jurisdiction of the government to stop the cancer on society that is terrorism.

4. What do you think about the Education Reform Act, currently being voted on in the Senate?

I think it's a good idea, although I agree with Senator Potus that it's not quite perfect.

The most common occurrence in legislation is a well-intentioned plan to fix a real problem that ends up just putting more power in the hands of the inefficient government. That being said, some of these plans are better than others, where I might actually support them. This, for example, seems like a cost-effective measure to help students and grow the economy, without expanding government power beyond where it already is. If they can keep to that I'd support it.

5. Some people have complained that the Constitutional Convention isn't progressing fast enough. Are you happy with the rate of progress?

Well, people are always going to complain, aren't they? At least one person will complain about everything, and some people are generous enough to take up that whole job themselves. You know what haters do, Ted, it's best to ignore them.

Am I happy with the rate of progress? Looking at the big picture, I'm overjoyed with the rate of progress! Taking last summer into account, I'm overjoyed we're still having progress! I'm overjoyed Atlasia still exists to make progress on! It hasn't been as fast as any of us would've wanted it to have been, of course not. But hey, it's happening!

The Constitutional Convention is a movement of Atlasians that started last fall, and has accomplished more than most of us thought it would do at the time. It's proof that citizens can start a movement that makes a difference. I remember when this was nothing more than Classic and Cris's sideshow in the circus of last summer, but they pushed forward, the movement grew, and it became a reality! What an accomplishment that is? Under the leadership of Cris, Truman, and myself, plus countless other active Atlasians such as President Griffin, we've made a tangible difference.

Has it gone as fast as we might have hoped? No, but we don't measure to fantasy, we measure to reality. The reality was an Atlasia with membership dropping like dragonflies, movements created to end the game, one region wanting to leave, another becoming a communist theme park, notorious trolls and dissolutionists trying to get rid of the few functioning members of the federal government, and while things are far from perfect, sales of sunglasses have gone up across the nation due to the sheer brightness of the light at the end of the tunnel.

The reform movement is working, everyone. Slowly but very surely.

6. Is there a future run for office in the cards? Will you run for President in June 2016? Senate?

Ah, I'm glad you asked that!

First, will I run for President in June? Well, lots can change in three months, so it's hard to rule anything out, but most likely not. I'm not really wanting to be Atlasia's Thomas Dewey.

Regarding the second question, I actually have a bit of an announcement to make: I plan to run in this upcoming month's at-large Senate election! I've had an interest in joining the Senate for a while, and with five spots open in an election coinciding with my Gubernatorial term ending, it's the perfect opportunity! I plan to make my official announcement in the coming days, and I look forward to running an active campaign and making Atlasia better and freer in the Senate should the people elect me.

Again, thanks for the interview, Ted, and good luck both in your political career and this newspaper!

Taking a look at the Southern Gubernatorial Election

Speaker Haslam2020, the prohibitive frontrunner for the Governorship this April

The Southern Gubernatorial contest is heating up. Regional Speaker Haslam, long-touted as a possible successor to the man we interviewed above, has announced the campaign he'd been planning for weeks behind the scenes. He's quickly emerged as the consensus Federalist choice: endorsed by the outgoing Leinad, one of his close friends, and Assemblyman Pingvin, who had previously been thought of as a potential challenger. Secretary of State Classic Conservative has also come up as a potential candidate in some Federalist circles, but insiders say he currently has his dream job and is unlikely to attempt to move up further (at least for now). At this point it's safe to say that the quasi-libertarian Haslam, a near-perfect fit for the South's conservative sympathies, won't face any major opposition from the right.

Labor's contest is more complicated. Assemblyman Steelers has been a loyal Laborite, but he suffered a decisive loss to incumbent Senator PiT in February and his activity has declined dramatically since. However, as Labor's only prominent officeholder in the Region, he should be the party's favorite if he chooses to run. Southern Gothic, a candidate for Assembly in the March elections, failed to knock out Steelers for a spot in the Assembly, but his populist, genteel style could make things a bit more interesting than your ordinary contest -- and, if he isn't running against an incumbent, running an effective campaign should be somewhat simpler. The wildcard here is former Governor Flo. Flo has been somewhat inactive recently, but still has the name recognition and political heft in the Labor Party to mount a bid. Needless to say, look for an interesting race here.

The general election is, as of now, unlikely to be very competitive. The two parties' turnout machines will be in overdrive for the Senate elections, but the sheer voter registration for the Federalists is probably going to deliver this one. So, we're calling this LIKELY FEDERALIST for now. The only reason it isn't safe is the amount that can change in the coming weeks.

Happy Easter!

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

This is really excellent, Ted. Well done!

[Pragmatic Conservative]

This is really excellent, Ted. Well done!

[Mike Thick]

This is really excellent, Ted. Well done!

Thanks, guys!

[Classic Conservative]

This is really excellent, Ted. Well done!

[Former Senator Haslam2020]

Great Job!

[Leinad]

This is really excellent, Ted. Well done!

[Kingpoleon]

This is really excellent, Ted. Well done!

[Mike Thick]

Aw, shucks *blushes*

[Former Senator Haslam2020]

Aw, shucks *blushes*

XDDD

[Potus]

This is really some of the best reporting I've since Lumine's political/election tracker

[Mike Thick]

This is really some of the best reporting I've since Lumine's political/election tracker

Thanks!

Read all about it

     We're breaking from our usual political coverage to report that multiple ISIS operatives in the Pacific were arrested in a raid last night. The cell of six, based in Oregon, was apparently one of the very last remaining in the Pacific. SAOC forces stormed a Salem apartment late at night, and were able to catch the terrorists without any injury on either side. The six are in police custody, and are expected to be charged with various terror-related offenses. This marks a key victory for Governor Bessell, whose battles with the terror threat have been compounded by a drought and a budget crisis just as the midterm cycle begins and he faces re-election.

     *Note - My "e" key is broken. Sorry for any typos.

[Mike Thick]

We're going to be delayed a bit in publishing today (although we will publish today) because I'm driving home from a vacation, and would prefer to write this up when I have laptop access.

[Mike Thick]

ISSUE #2: Smith on ISIS, More Midterm Analysis

Smith: A Plan to Defend Our Nation

Atlasian soldiers in the Middle East

I have always considered myself an avowed non-interventionist when it comes to foreign policy. I have always believed that we shouldn't attack ISIS until they attack us on our soil. But they've attacked Atlasian territory now, and we have no choice but to defend our country.

I believe that our top priority should be to minimize any loss of Atlasian lives; putting anything above this would undermine our goal of self-defense. First of all, this shouldn't become a drawn out affair similar to the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Ideally, we should be able to take down ISIS as quickly as possible. I would also choose not to send in ground troops if possible, but as ISIS grows, we may have no choice.

Of course, we would also need to remove ISIS from Dearborn, Michigan, which could be difficult as well. However, I have confidence that we would be able to succeed in this goal before too long, and all of Atlasia would be free of ISIS.

-Northeast Lieutenant Governor and Senate Candidate C.X. Smith

Contests Heat Up as Midterms Grow Near

Southeast Spaker Haslam2020 and Pacific Governor Ted Bessell, the frontrunners in their respective contests

The April midterm contests are closing in. Here's our take on a few races:
Southern Gubernatorial:
We had previously rated this race as "Likely Federalist" due to the sheer amount that can change. However, Regional Speaker Haslam2020 has garnered the endorsements of almost all prominent Federalist officials, prominent center-right indies such as Kingpoleon, and Laborites like Southern Gothic. Former Governor Flo has ruled out a run, and Assemblyman Steelers is nowhere to be found. For these reasons, we're calling this race SAFE FEDERALIST -- there's a decent chance that Haslam will win unopposed.

Pacific Gubernatorial/Legislative:
Incumbent Governor Bessell is (according to a recent Karr Analytics poll) extremely popular, and has received endorsements from an ideologically diverse crop of Atlasians. There's no question that activity in the Pacific is trending up -- the problem Bessell could have, though, is a lack of concrete policy accomplishments in a time when new policies are desperately needed to counter various crises. There's a number of people Labor can run here: Emergency Commissioner Ebowed was previously an active player and may be looking to make a political comeback after narrowly losing his Senate seat to Potus in February, is a grizzled veteran of the game, and has deep connections both in the regional and national Labor organizations. Former Governor Turkisblau is another contender, but his perceived associations with radicals could weigh on a run. All in all, we're rating this LIKELY FEDERALIST for now -- Governor Bessell is the favorite, but a lot could change.

At-Large Senate Elections:
Another contest that's getting revved up. Southern Governor Leinad has received a lot of prominent endorsements, and if they're for first preference (as they appear to be) he'll likely end up with a Senate seat. Incumbent Senators JoMCaR and Kent stand as good a chance as any of winning re-election. Truman, The sole Laborite incumbent, is likely a lock for re-election -- and is in a very good position to run for President in June. Northeast Lieutenant Governor Smith also probably starts as a light favorite here. However, we're going to refrain from making any solid projections here: once again, a lot can and will change.

[Mike Thick]

We have a big announcement to make -- Nyman Weekly is merging with the polling firm "Atlasian Research Group!" Their CEO, Leinad, will crunch numbers in a semi-regular section called "Polls+" and assist with election night coverage. Administrative difficulties resulting from the merger have delayed the release of the issue of Nyman Weekly until tomorrow.

EDIT: Since it ain't getting done tonight, I'm just going to hold off until the elections on Thursday.

[Leinad]

Welcome to Polls+, Nyman Weekly's new analytics branch ran in the newspaper's new Atlanta offices. I decided to merge the Atlasian Research Group into Nyman Weekly as I wanted to expand it beyond what I felt was in ARG's capacity, but to what I think is right in Nyman Weekly's wheelhouse. And yes, the title is an homage to FiveThirtyEight, if that was not already obvious. Enjoy!

Southern Gubernatorial Election Preview

Voting lines in Florida, a key state, for the February Presidential and Senate elections.

As Governor Leinad (Fed-GA) steps down at the end of his second term to seek an At-Large Senate seat, the two people to serve as Speaker under him are aiming to take his job as the South's executive in this weekend's election.

The Candidates

Speaker Haslam2020 (Fed-TN) was the first to declare for office, officially filing on March 27th after announcing his run four days earlier. He was elected to the Legislature in November of last year, and was elected Speaker shortly thereafter, a post he has held for the past five months. His candidacy has been endorsed by prominent figures such as outgoing Governor Leinad, Pacific Governor Ted Bessel (Fed-CA), and Laborite Mideast Governor NeverAgain (Lab-VA).

Spiral (Ind-AL), recently confirmed as Judicial Overlord, filed on April 6th, although has yet to do public campaigning. In the Mideast he was Governor from January to May 2014, after part of a term as Senator from that region. More recently, he was Southern Legislator from May to September 2015, including being Speaker for the last month of that and Co-Speaker the month before that.

Both are in the, shall we say, "moditarian" ideological neighborhood. In other words, somewhere in between Leinad and Kingpoleon. Spiral was, until recently, a Democratic-Republican, while Haslam has been a Federalist since he entered Atlasian politics.

This similarity in ideology could make the election not one of left vs. right, but of experience vs. recent activity.

A Brief History of Recent Southern Elections

Since the re-election of Flo (Lab-PR, but at the time a TPPer) in April 2015, where he won 64% of the vote to DeadPrez's (Fed-TX) 31%, the Federalist Party has won every region-wide election.

In the next election, which was perhaps the last involving two "right-of-center" candidates before this, then-Speaker PiT (Fed-LA) beat then-Senator Hagrid (Ind-SC) to win the South's Senate seat in June, by a margin of 65%-35%. It's not an exact ideological comparison, even if it wasn't for turnover (more on that shortly...), but it's interesting context nonetheless.

In the last competitive election of 2015, then-Legislator Leinad beat then-Co-Speaker DarTheBearNC (Lab-WI, but then TPP-NC) with 63% of the vote to Dar's 25%. Both PiT and then Leinad won re-election with no real opposition later that year.

The most recent single-winner region-wide election took place February, when Senator PiT beat Legislator Steelers (Lab-SC) with 73% of the vote.

Demographic Analysis and Polling

In the only poll taken since Spiral's announcement, by The Southern Biscuit, Haslam led with 70% of the vote. Although only 43% of voters ranked themselves as "strong Haslam" with 27% each saying "strong Spiral" and "lean Haslam." That being said, the poll's sample size was 7, so it's hard to draw too many conclusions from that. A new poll by Survey Atlasia recently opened for all likely South voters.

Here's the up-to-date numbers from the Registrar General's office:

	Lab	Fed	CR	DR	TPP	Oth	Ind	Total
South	6	11	0	2	0	0	4	23

Given that Clash (Ind-LA) registered too late to be eligible to vote in this weekend's election (although he will be eligible to vote in the At-Large Senate race the weekend after), there will be a maximum of 22 eligible voters.

Half of those voters will be registered Federalists, and we would presume that they would generally vote for Haslam, the Federalist candidate. That being said, Spiral's experience and ideological similarity could certainly lead to defections.

The Laborite voters could go either way--Haslam has already collected two endorsements from Labor (Mideast Governor NeverAgain and former Southern Legislature candidate Southern Gothic (Lab-LA)) while Spiral voted for Adam Griffin (Lab-GA) in both of his runs for the Presidency.

We would expect the DRs to vote for Spiral, given his former membership in the party, but again, with the similarities in ideology, defections are possible. Independents could also go either way--and could provide a key voting block if the former Mideast Governor is to pull off an upset.

The Young and the Federalist?

36% of eligible South voters first registered for Atlasia after the April 2015 election (i.e. in the past year), only 50% of eligible South voters cast a vote in that election (or, the inverse, only 40% of the voters in the April 2015 election are still here--6 voted for Flo, 5 voted for DeadPrez), and 23% of eligible South voters first registered for Atlasia after September 2015, the last time Spiral held elected office.

This is a key demographic category we'll be looking at--if it turns out that it ends up being a battle of experience vs. recent activity, logically, the newer voters would probably skew towards Haslam and the older voters would probably skew towards Spiral. But who knows? There's a reason they play the game.

By The Numbers:

Senator North Carolina Yankee

On Sunday, Senator North Carolina Yankee (Fed-NC) announced that he wasn't running for re-election to the Senate. Here are some fun facts about Atlasia's all-time longest serving Senator:

-Yankee is currently in his 3rd consecutive term as At-Large Senator after being elected to that role in April 2015, two months after the end of his 17-consecutive-term tenure as Southern Regional Senator after being first elected in June 2009.

-He became the Dean of the Senate in February 2010, and remained the longest-continuously-serving Senator until March 2015, and thus was the Dean...

-...except when he was President Pro Tempore, a role he held 4 separate times, for a total of over 3 years.

-The Eternal Senator will have served 20 full terms by the expiry of this one, and at that time he will have served for more terms than every other current Senator...combined (16).

-Not entirely related to Yankee, but still connected: combined with his predecessor and (indirect) successor as Southern Regional Senator, PiT, and his fellow retiring At-Large Senator Cris (CR-KS), those three will have served 28.5 combined terms, over three times as many as the other seven (7.5).

-And if you add in Senator Altsomn "JoMCaR" Stmarken (Fed-ME) and Senator Harry S. Truman (Lab-IN), who each will have served about 2 terms each, 50% of the Senators will have 90% of the Senate's total experience.

-Back to the Senator for Life, this is the 40th Senate Yankee has served on, out of a total of 72. In other words, in the entire 12-year history of the Atlasian Senate, Yankee has been on it more often than he has not.

-Since November 2008, only 3 people have held the office of Southern Regional Senator: Yankee for 17 terms, Hagrid for 1, and PiT was recently elected to his 5th (3rd consecutive). Presuming the new Constitution is ratified by June (it will be), that means that 3 people will have held that seat for nearly the last two-thirds of the Five Region Era.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Two minor notes, I think you meant seven months instead of seven years for Haslam.


Also, I left the Senate on March 6th, 2015 as Regional Senator and thus my time as Senate Dean would have ended on that date not in May.

[Leinad]

Two minor notes, I think you meant seven months instead of seven years for Haslam.


Also, I left the Senate on March 6th, 2015 as Regional Senator and thus my time as Senate Dean would have ended on that date not in May.

Thanks for the corrections! Yeah, I get March and May mixed up sometimes.

EDIT: also I meant five months not seven months--the statistics guy can't do math!

[Kingpoleon]

I just wanted to say Thank You for considering me a "moderate Libertarian", though I do despise the elitist "fiscally conservative but socially liberal" group usually. Also, it's "centrist independent". I can honestly say one of my biggest problems with CR is it calling itself a moderate "centre-right" party.

[Mike Thick]

That was part of

ISSUE #3: Midterms, Midterms, Midterms!
Pacific Elections: Meet the Candidates!

Tomorrow, Pacific voters will head to the polls to pick their Governor and Council after a brief term following March's emergency elections. Here are profiles of some of the candidates.

Governor: Incumbent Governor Ted Bessell

Ted Bessell ran for Governor in March having never held elective office in his life, having only worked as a lawyer and policy consultant. He blew out now-Councilor 1184AZ by a nearly 3-1 margin, shocking political observers. Since his election, ISIS's presence in the Region has evaporated. However, unemployment has gone up significantly, and legislative activity remains low. Bessell maintains a sky-high approval rating, though, and (being the only candidate running) is a lock for re-election.

Council: Incumbent Councilor 1184AZ

1184AZ rebounded from his Gubernatorial loss quickly, and after becoming Speaker of the Council for one day (one of, if not the single shortest tenure in history) introduced the Education Reform Act: a bill that, while not yet on the floor, would bring about sweeping progressive reforms to the Pacific's education system. Although there was some speculation that he would seek a rematch with Governor Bessell, he opted to endorse the Governor and work to keep his essentially safe seat. The only Laborite on the Council, 1184AZ appears to be a sure bet for their votes in this closely divided Region, and thus re-election.

Council: Incumbent Councilor Simfan34

Simfan served as Governor of the Pacific for over a year, and proved to be a controversial but effective leader, passing sweeping infrastructure and education reforms. However, a coup swept him out of office, continuing the long series of events that have shaped the Pacific as Atlasia's most troubled region. Since his election in March, Simfan has done a fairly good job, helping to get the nomination of former Councilor Wulfric as Pacific Justice through, but has kept 1184AZ's Education bill off the floor. Regardless, he's virtually certain to win re-election.

Council: Former President Lumine

Lumine has, far and away, the most diverse and accomplished resume of any candidate. He's served as a Governor, a Senator, and a State Legislator, both at-large and in three of the five regions. In addition, he served as President for one term, and was a key component in the founding of the Civic Renewal Party. Lumine's return to Atlasia, along with Wulfric's appointment as Justice, has breathed new life into what many say is/was a dying party, and could have national implications as it continues to provide Civic Renewal a base of operations in the Pacific. Governor Bessell's choice to fill SoFE RPryor's seat, Lumine's return to Atlasia is certain, as he'll be propelled to victory by the Pacific's massive center-right block.

Our Predictions:

GOVERNOR:
Incumbent Governor Ted Bessell (F)

COUNCIL:
Incumbent Councilor 1184AZ (L)
Incumbent Councilor Simfan34 (NPP)
Former President Lumine (CR)

[Mike Thick]

I just wanted to say Thank You for considering me a "moderate Libertarian", though I do despise the elitist "fiscally conservative but socially liberal" group usually. Also, it's "centrist independent". I can honestly say one of my biggest problems with CR is it calling itself a moderate "centre-right" party.

I think what he was getting at is that you're super-duper moderate and he's super-duper libertarian, and the candidates are somewhere in-between.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

Bravo, Leinad and Ted!

[Mike Thick]

Bravo, Leinad and Ted!

Thanks -- both to those who so generously compliment our paper and Leinad!

[Leinad]

Thanks to Truman and you're welcome to Ted!

And yeah, that's what I meant--Kingpoleon is a centrist, I'm a libertarian, and there are various people, including Haslam, Ted, and JoMCaR, in the "moditarian" zone in between.

Also, I'm curious, Kingpoleon, as to what exactly you dislike about CR calling themselves "center-right." Is it a dislike of that term in general? If so, I disagree--I think it's a good way to differentiate from pure centrists such as yourself without associating with the "very conservative" crowd.