Cruz will control Lousiana delegation despite TRUMP win

[Penelope]

This is awesome.

Agreed. Democracy must be abolished.

part of democracy is blocking candidates and/or parties who would dismantle democracy

Meh, blocking one fascist with another, smarter fascist isn't really that helpful.

[YaBoyNY]

I don't think you guys realize how awesome this is.

The Republican party is destroying itself. It's only a matter of time before they vote to voluntarily dissolve themselves.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

This is only going to effect the 2nd ballot at a contested convention?

That's what I'm thinking. I'm pretty sure that LA's delegates are legally bound. Not sure if they would necessary obey that though.

I disagree. Paul received more pledged delegates from MN, IA, LA, and ME than the other candidates due to exactly this kind of strategy.

So, the ones from Lousiana that Cruz is bragging about are actually pledged delegates? (I can't read the article due to a paywall)

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

This is awesome.

Agreed. Democracy must be abolished.

part of democracy is blocking candidates and/or parties who would dismantle democracy

Meh, blocking one fascist with another, smarter fascist isn't really that helpful.

eh. zodiac is terrible in plenty of other areas, but he wouldn't actually destroy the democratic system

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

This is awesome.

Agreed. Democracy must be abolished.

part of democracy is blocking candidates and/or parties who would dismantle democracy

All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others.

a standard trumpeteer viewpoint, but what does it have to do with this thread?

[yankeesfan]

This is awesome.

[Orthogonian Society Treasurer]

This is awesome.

Agreed. Democracy must be abolished.

part of democracy is blocking candidates and/or parties who would dismantle democracy

All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others.

a standard trumpeteer viewpoint, but what does it have to do with this thread?

"Democracy is threatening democracy so we must subvert democracy in order to save the sacred institution of democracy." - literally you

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Same thing is underway in Florida, FWIW. The district caucuses elect the delegates. However, the Florida delegation will be legally bound to Trump for three ballots, not just the first.

[Maxwell]

lol Mr. Let's Patrol Mooslem Neighborhoods is now being cheered for stealing delegates and subverting the will of the voters. You can not like Trump and still view this as disgusting behavior.

[Joe Republic]

"TrusTED"

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

This is only going to effect the 2nd ballot at a contested convention?

my understanding is that the convention could theoretically vote to unbind all delegates before the first ballot if Trump had enough delegates to win on the first ballot: although that would be incredibly unpopular and probably cause Trump to try as hard as he can to destroy whoever the Republican candidate is.

Pretty sure he's doing that already. So what's the downside for the party's old guard again?

[Vosem]

Same thing is underway in Florida, FWIW. The district caucuses elect the delegates. However, the Florida delegation will be legally bound to Trump for three ballots, not just the first.

Shame that the FL delegation won't be able to be part of the Cruz victory, then, because it'll be done by the third ballot.

"Democracy is threatening democracy so we must subvert democracy in order to save the sacred institution of democracy." - literally you

lol Mr. Let's Patrol Mooslem Neighborhoods is now being cheered for stealing delegates and subverting the will of the voters. You can not like Trump and still view this as disgusting behavior.

Nah. _trump's "win" is a function of vote-splitting that wouldn't happen under any electoral system other than FPTP (and the fact that the primary system is mostly not held under FPTP is the reason your boy is losing). As for delegates, they're not being stolen, they're being elected -- the very core of what democracy is about. Whose fault is it that _trump's supporters are so low-energy they can't be bothered to actually go out, organize, and make sure their candidate wins?

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

This is awesome.

Agreed. Democracy must be abolished.

part of democracy is blocking candidates and/or parties who would dismantle democracy

All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others.

a standard trumpeteer viewpoint, but what does it have to do with this thread?

"Democracy is threatening democracy so we must subvert democracy in order to save the sacred institution of democracy." - literally you

if you're under the delusion that drumpf isn't a threat to democracy, i don't know what else to tell you.

[Mr. Morden]

This is only going to effect the 2nd ballot at a contested convention?

No, there are two different things going on here:

1) Cruz recruiting “ninja delegates” among the Trump delegates.  These are people who are pledged to support Trump on the first ballot, but may abandon him if it goes to a second ballot.

2) Cruz recruiting support from unpledged delegates, as well as delegates pledged to candidates who’ve dropped out of the race, who may now be allowed to jump ship even on the first ballot.

Because of the particulars of Louisiana’s delegate selection process, several of their delegates go to the convention unpledged to any candidate.  They can vote for whoever they want on the first ballot.  For Louisiana’s at-large delegates, for example, Erc has this count:

Louisiana Results

At-Large:

Trump 12 - Cruz 11 - Uncommitted 5

Those “uncommitted” delegates can vote for whoever they want, even on the first ballot.  I guess there were also some Rubio delegates at the CD level, because the WSJ article says this:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

In some states, Rubio delegates are pledged to vote for him on the first ballot even if he’s suspended his campaign, but in other states they’re not.

[Erc]

Mr. Morden has it right here.

There are 5 Uncommitted delegates to begin with in LA due to their weird allocation rules (essentially, anyone voting for Rubio or Kasich was secretly voting for "Uncommitted" for the purposes of At-Large delegates).

In addition, Rubio also won 5 delegates on the CD level that became free agents the instant he suspended his campaign.  (Louisiana is one of the few states that releases them automatically on a suspension).

It's these 10 delegates that Cruz supporters apparently picked, and they are free to vote for Cruz on the first ballot.  The Trump delegates are free to vote for him on the second ballot, if there is one.

I had generally heard from Twitter rumors that this was the case, but had only been able to confirm from independent sources that 2 of the 10 unpledged delegates were in the Cruz camp.

[Mr. Morden]

So, the ones from Lousiana that Cruz is bragging about are actually pledged delegates? (I can't read the article due to a paywall)

You can read any WSJ article by simply googling the headline, and then clicking on the link.  That gets you access without paying any $.

Anyway, to answer your question, like I said in my last post, Cruz is recruiting unpledged delegates plus delegates from candidates who've dropped out who are now allowed to vote for him on the first ballot.  But in addition to that, he's recruiting Trump delegates who have to vote for Trump on the first ballot, but can defect on later ballots.

As I posted elsewhere the other day: Cruz's role in this campaign is rather ironic.  Cruz has clashed with the "party establishment" because of his procedural extremism.  He agrees with the rest of the GOP caucus in Congress on policy, but disagrees on tactics.  He wants to use filibusters, holds on nominations, and government shutdowns far more aggressively than they do.  And he calls them sellouts when they won't join him in shutting down the government over unrelated issues.  That's why they hate him.

But now he's in a position where his "procedural extremism" is going to be used to try to block a Trump nomination, with the "party establishment" likely cheering him on.

[Antonio the Sixth]

As I posted elsewhere the other day: Cruz's role in this campaign is rather ironic.  Cruz has clashed with the "party establishment" because of his procedural extremism.  He agrees with the rest of the GOP caucus in Congress on policy, but disagrees on tactics.  He wants to use filibusters, holds on nominations, and government shutdowns far more aggressively than they do.  And he calls them sellouts when they won't join him in shutting down the government over unrelated issues.  That's why they hate him.

But now he's in a position where his "procedural extremism" is going to be used to try to block a Trump nomination, with the "party establishment" likely cheering him on.

See? Cruz is consistent in his principles.

[Ebsy]

What happens if delegates pledged to Trump just don't show up at the convention?

[ClimateDem]

Cruz will probably be the nominee by literally stealing delegates the same as Paul did in 2012, but on a much larger and more sanctioned scale. These state conventions are going to be hilarious to watch. If the fighting was bad last time, this time it's going to be insane.

[Likely Voter]

Cruz will probably be the nominee by literally stealing delegates the same as Paul did in 2012, but on a much larger and more sanctioned scale. These state conventions are going to be hilarious to watch. If the fighting was bad last time, this time it's going to be insane.

Not exactly the same. Paul was trying to steal pledged delegates to vote for Paul on the first ballot. Cruz is infiltrating Trump's pledged delegates but they can't vote for Cruz until the second ballot. So if Trump wins enough pledged delegates all of this stuff will be a moot point.

Cruz is also going after unbound delegates. In theory Cruz could use them to win on a first ballot but he would have to really close the gap with Trump by the convention and go in with close to 1100+.

But going after the unbound is also a defensive move to keep them from Trump. If Trump doesn't get 1237 he is going to be very close.  Cruz' ninjas will mean that Trump is going to lose delegates on the second round, so Trump really needs to win on the first round. The unbound delegates are the way he can win with less than 1237. Say Trump goes in with 1200, then he just needs 37 of these unbound and he is the nominee. And you can be sure that Trump will be handing out jobs, ambassadorships, free travel to the convention and possibly even suitcases of money to make that happen.

[Why]

This is only going to effect the 2nd ballot at a contested convention?

No, there are two different things going on here:

1) Cruz recruiting “ninja delegates” among the Trump delegates.  These are people who are pledged to support Trump on the first ballot, but may abandon him if it goes to a second ballot.

2) Cruz recruiting support from unpledged delegates, as well as delegates pledged to candidates who’ve dropped out of the race, who may now be allowed to jump ship even on the first ballot.

Because of the particulars of Louisiana’s delegate selection process, several of their delegates go to the convention unpledged to any candidate.  They can vote for whoever they want on the first ballot.  For Louisiana’s at-large delegates, for example, Erc has this count:

Louisiana Results

At-Large:

Trump 12 - Cruz 11 - Uncommitted 5

Those “uncommitted” delegates can vote for whoever they want, even on the first ballot.  I guess there were also some Rubio delegates at the CD level, because the WSJ article says this:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

In some states, Rubio delegates are pledged to vote for him on the first ballot even if he’s suspended his campaign, but in other states they’re not.

Thank you for your comprehensive summary.

Another question from ignorance.
Do the delegates have to get to the floor of the convention to vote?
What happens if delegates suddenly get food poisoning and have to stay in their rooms celebrating Trumps defeat?

[ClimateDem]

Cruz will probably be the nominee by literally stealing delegates the same as Paul did in 2012, but on a much larger and more sanctioned scale. These state conventions are going to be hilarious to watch. If the fighting was bad last time, this time it's going to be insane.

Not exactly the same. Paul was trying to steal pledged delegates to vote for Paul on the first ballot. Cruz is infiltrating Trump's pledged delegates but they can't vote for Cruz until the second ballot. So if Trump wins enough pledged delegates all of this stuff will be a moot point.

Cruz is also going after unbound delegates. In theory Cruz could use them to win on a first ballot but he would have to really close the gap with Trump by the convention and go in with close to 1100+.

But going after the unbound is also a defensive move to keep them from Trump. If Trump doesn't get 1237 he is going to be very close.  Cruz' ninjas will mean that Trump is going to lose delegates on the second round, so Trump really needs to win on the first round. The unbound delegates are the way he can win with less than 1237. Say Trump goes in with 1200, then he just needs 37 of these unbound and he is the nominee. And you can be sure that Trump will be handing out jobs, ambassadorships, free travel to the convention and possibly even suitcases of money to make that happen.

Agreed, but there's also going to be some Paul level shady stuff going on even if Trump were to exceed the target.

[Why]

Cruz will probably be the nominee by literally stealing delegates the same as Paul did in 2012, but on a much larger and more sanctioned scale. These state conventions are going to be hilarious to watch. If the fighting was bad last time, this time it's going to be insane.

Not exactly the same. Paul was trying to steal pledged delegates to vote for Paul on the first ballot. Cruz is infiltrating Trump's pledged delegates but they can't vote for Cruz until the second ballot. So if Trump wins enough pledged delegates all of this stuff will be a moot point.

Cruz is also going after unbound delegates. In theory Cruz could use them to win on a first ballot but he would have to really close the gap with Trump by the convention and go in with close to 1100+.

But going after the unbound is also a defensive move to keep them from Trump. If Trump doesn't get 1237 he is going to be very close.  Cruz' ninjas will mean that Trump is going to lose delegates on the second round, so Trump really needs to win on the first round. The unbound delegates are the way he can win with less than 1237. Say Trump goes in with 1200, then he just needs 37 of these unbound and he is the nominee. And you can be sure that Trump will be handing out jobs, ambassadorships, free travel to the convention and possibly even suitcases of money to make that happen.

Hopefully any delegates willing to sell their vote for Trump hold out for a huge amount of money, because, after all, Trump is a hugely successful business man worth 90 billion dollars.

[Likely Voter]

Cruz will probably be the nominee by literally stealing delegates the same as Paul did in 2012, but on a much larger and more sanctioned scale. These state conventions are going to be hilarious to watch. If the fighting was bad last time, this time it's going to be insane.

Not exactly the same. Paul was trying to steal pledged delegates to vote for Paul on the first ballot. Cruz is infiltrating Trump's pledged delegates but they can't vote for Cruz until the second ballot. So if Trump wins enough pledged delegates all of this stuff will be a moot point.

Cruz is also going after unbound delegates. In theory Cruz could use them to win on a first ballot but he would have to really close the gap with Trump by the convention and go in with close to 1100+.

But going after the unbound is also a defensive move to keep them from Trump. If Trump doesn't get 1237 he is going to be very close.  Cruz' ninjas will mean that Trump is going to lose delegates on the second round, so Trump really needs to win on the first round. The unbound delegates are the way he can win with less than 1237. Say Trump goes in with 1200, then he just needs 37 of these unbound and he is the nominee. And you can be sure that Trump will be handing out jobs, ambassadorships, free travel to the convention and possibly even suitcases of money to make that happen.

Agreed, but there's also going to be some Paul level shady stuff going on even if Trump were to exceed the target.

In 2012 the RNC adopted Rule 16 to disallow that Paul ninja delegate stuff. You can read it here:
https://cdn.gop.com/docs/2012_RULES_Adopted.pdf

And according to Ben Ginsberg, this is a permanent rule that cannot be changed by the 2016 rules committee
http://www.c-span.org/video/?406980-1/ben-ginsberg-republican-convention-rules

Cruz can fill slates with his ninjas and they can follow his lead for other rules, for VP and on the second ballot. He can nab unpledged delegates, including ones that were Rubio delegates.  But he can't touch Trump's first ballot pledged delegates.  If Trump wins 1237, he wins. End of story. (at least according to Ginsberg, and if there was a way around it, you can bet that weasily shark would be talking about it)

[Mr. Morden]

Thank you for your comprehensive summary.

Another question from ignorance.
Do the delegates have to get to the floor of the convention to vote?
What happens if delegates suddenly get food poisoning and have to stay in their rooms celebrating Trumps defeat?

I believe each state goes in with some "alternate delegates" who can sub in for one of the regular delegates if something happens to them.  I presume they're also pledged to vote for the same candidate on the first ballot as the sick delegate they're subbing in for.

What if the alternate delegates are all sick too?  I don't know the rules that well.  You'll have to ask Erc that one.