Which State is Most Likely to Start Using the Mainebraska EV Allocation Method?

[Free Bird]

I'm not asking what you think of it. I'm asking which is most likely to start using it when they currently don't.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Hopefully none as long as gerrymandering is so prevalent.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Hasn't PA talked about it?

[andrew_c]

Hasn't PA talked about it?

Not happening under a Democrat governor.

[sportydude]

I could see New Hampshire using that method, as it is the tiniest swing state.

Alaska also seems to be a good answer once it gains its second elector. I could imagine that the rural Alaska is pissed off of Anchorage's electoral hegemony. For the same reason Nevada could be a good prediction.

[sg0508]

Well, CO was close. It got on the ballot in 2004, but was shot down by the voters 2:1.

[cwt]

Well, CO was close. It got on the ballot in 2004, but was shot down by the voters 2:1.

That system would have been different from Maine/Nebraska. If that amendment passed, Colorado would split up their electoral votes proportionally with the statewide popular vote.

[Sir Mohamed]

Maybe CA. But I hope that won’t happen. Dems need all 55 EVs (hopefully even more after the 2020 census).

[pbrower2a]

Idaho? Rhode Island? Hawaii? Louisiana? Mississippi?

As for Michigan or Pennsylvania - the majority liberal attitude is something like "Georgia and Texas, you go first!" Republican control of the Governorship in Michigan, and probably the State Legislature,  has become very shaky very fast.

This is most likely when a landslide election or two seem certain. 

[Figueira]

Wyoming.

[bagelman]

Well, CO was close. It got on the ballot in 2004, but was shot down by the voters 2:1.

That system would have been different from Maine/Nebraska. If that amendment passed, Colorado would split up their electoral votes proportionally with the statewide popular vote.

So like 5-4 in most elections, becoming very easy to ignore during the GE?

[°Leprechaun]

No state will.

[BuckeyeNut]

I could see New Hampshire using that method, as it is the tiniest swing state.

Alaska also seems to be a good answer once it gains its second elector. I could imagine that the rural Alaska is pissed off of Anchorage's electoral hegemony. For the same reason Nevada could be a good prediction.

When on Earth is Alaska going to get a second elector?

[hurricanehink]

Perhaps North Carolina? Their legislature might see the state as slipping away for Republicans at the presidential level. If McCrory gets reelected, maybe this will be part of the 2nd term agenda?

[Stranger in a strange land]

Maybe CA. But I hope that won’t happen. Dems need all 55 EVs (hopefully even more after the 2020 census).

That would require either a Republican legislature or for EV allocation by CD to win in a referendum, neither of which is going to happen.

[sportydude]

I could see New Hampshire using that method, as it is the tiniest swing state.

Alaska also seems to be a good answer once it gains its second elector. I could imagine that the rural Alaska is pissed off of Anchorage's electoral hegemony. For the same reason Nevada could be a good prediction.

When on Earth is Alaska going to get a second elector?

2040

[Bojack Horseman]

Michigan, Virginia, and Wisconsin probably. All blue states where Republicans are in power. Illegitimate power in Michigan's case.

[Illiniwek]

Michigan

That would be crushing.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Probably a small state.  Trying to allocate EVs by Congressional districts in a big state like California or Texas would be a mess.

[Figueira]

Michigan

That would be crushing.

IIRC they gave up on that, and are now considering doing it proportionally instead. Would still hurt the Democrats, but not as much.

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

Any state with a Statehouse majority of the minority party... so PA, MI, WI, VA?

[BL53931]

Here in NE, the state GOP has made it a priority to scrap this system. They are all out for it, requiring anyone seeking their endorsement in our (officially non partisan) legislative races to sign a  pledge to repeal it. Their public excuses are laughable. Everybody knows it is partisan- they never got over that one EV going for Obama in 2008. This time if Clinton carries NE-2 the pressure will be enormous.

Our state Democratic party IMO is run by amiable boobs. They seemed to sleep all through the last attempt this year to repeal the law.  Nothing on the state party web site or said by party leaders.

If this is repealed I'd love to see someone get it on the ballot for 2018. Not that a lot of voters will understand, however..

[GMantis]

Idaho? Rhode Island? Hawaii? Louisiana? Mississippi?

The first three are possible, but the last two are out of the question since the Republicans who control those states will never to agree to handing an automatic electoral vote to the Democrats.

[Wolves]

States like Illnois have a majority of the electorate voting Republican in senate and house elections, same with Northern California. I'd like the method to applied here but...

Realistically, I'd say PA, Philly really just rules out any kind of vote the outside counties make, same in NY with NYC.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

States like Illnois have a majority of the electorate voting Republican in senate and house elections, same with Northern California. I'd like the method to applied here but...

Realistically, I'd say PA, Philly really just rules out any kind of vote the outside counties make, same in NY with NYC.

The way to fix that problem is some sort of PR, not granting the same weight to a 90% victory in one district and a 55% victory in another.