Swing map in an Hillary/Trump election.
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Author Topic: Swing map in an Hillary/Trump election.  (Read 1128 times)
Senator Cris
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« on: March 25, 2016, 06:08:00 AM »
How would the swing map look like in an Hillary vs. Trump GE?
PS: I don't mean swing states, but changes in each state.
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« Reply #1 on: March 25, 2016, 07:59:35 AM »
Quote from: Senator Cris on March 25, 2016, 06:08:00 AM
How would the swing map look like in an Hillary vs. Trump GE?
PS: I don't mean swing states, but changes in each state.
Similar to 2008 or 2012, although Clinton might outperform Obama altogether. Utah seems to be in play, as strange as that is. It could be similar to Indiana 2008, also a fairly conservative state. Trump might do well in the south where there are a lot of conservative Democrats.
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tmcusa2
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« Reply #2 on: March 25, 2016, 08:00:03 AM »
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #3 on: March 25, 2016, 08:13:13 AM »
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RR1997
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« Reply #4 on: March 25, 2016, 08:15:32 AM »
Trump does worse in every state except maybe West Virginia. States like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Rhode Island, Mass, and Mississippi heavily trend towards Trump, but they don't swing to his direction.
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tmcusa2
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« Reply #5 on: March 25, 2016, 09:10:18 AM »
Quote from: TN volunteer on March 25, 2016, 08:13:06 AM

He means the SWING map, not the final result.

I think every state except WV, HI, VT and ME-02 "swings" to the Democrats.
Utah and Arizona, obviously, as for trends and margins etc etc who really knows? I know that he meant all that, but I can't accurately guess exact results, so that's why I didn't. If I could, I would be able to win millions of dollars in the lottery.

That's all predictions are, guesses.
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tmcusa2
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« Reply #6 on: March 25, 2016, 10:26:22 AM »
I like your optimism.
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #7 on: March 25, 2016, 01:24:37 PM »
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TDAS04
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« Reply #8 on: March 25, 2016, 01:35:36 PM »
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #9 on: March 25, 2016, 01:57:28 PM »
I'd guess something like this:
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SUSAN CRUSHBONE
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« Reply #10 on: March 25, 2016, 02:14:32 PM »
a swing map is difficult since trump has a good likelihood of either winning or bombing spectacularly, but a trend map might look something like this?
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #11 on: March 25, 2016, 02:29:19 PM »
« Edited: March 25, 2016, 02:42:41 PM by Pacific Councilor 1184AZ »
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Orthogonian Society Treasurer
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« Reply #12 on: March 25, 2016, 03:04:49 PM »
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Cory
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« Reply #13 on: March 25, 2016, 04:09:20 PM »
Now for a more serious map:
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #14 on: March 25, 2016, 04:17:05 PM »

How about you learn to read thread titles?
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blackwidow
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« Reply #15 on: March 25, 2016, 05:02:47 PM »
A realistic map?
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #16 on: March 25, 2016, 05:24:53 PM »
Something like this maybe, assuming no third parties:
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« Reply #17 on: March 25, 2016, 05:36:35 PM »
Assuming Hillary gets 350 electoral votes or more, it's probably all 50 states swinging to her.

Remember this is swing and not trend.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #18 on: March 25, 2016, 05:39:07 PM »
Quote from: Tetro Kornbluth on March 25, 2016, 05:24:53 PM
Something like this maybe, assuming no third parties:



This looks pretty good to me.
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Cory
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« Reply #19 on: March 25, 2016, 05:43:40 PM »

Yeah, because there is just no way someone could think it was about what states could be in play ("swing").
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #20 on: March 25, 2016, 05:45:12 PM »
Quote from: Cory on March 25, 2016, 05:43:40 PM

Yeah, because there is just no way someone could think it was about what states could be in play ("swing").

Everybody who is reasonably familiar with Dave's site knows what a swing map is.
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Xing
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« Reply #21 on: March 25, 2016, 06:53:12 PM »
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