Atlas Predicts - March 26 Primary Contests

[Landslide Lyndon]

First of all, as I've stated many times, exactly ZERO delegates were at stake in the primary in 2008. We really can't put any stock in those results, especially since we're having a caucus again this year, and in case anyone forgot about the contest that actually mattered in 2008, Obama won by 36%. The FL comparison is accurate. Just like FL was a perfect state for Clinton, WA is a perfect state for Sanders. FL Dems didn't dislike Sanders, they just preferred Clinton. Similarly, I'd agree that the electorate as a whole here isn't exactly anti-Clinton (though there are definitely some people who don't like her.) However, this state, particularly the Seattle area, LOVES Sanders. Trust me, I know my home state. Sanders is headed for a big win, and I wouldn't be surprised if he actually does slightly better than Obama.

I know that the 2008 primary was a beauty contest. But even if it wasn't I don't think Obama would've won it with such a wide margin as the caucuses.
Same thing this year. I don't question the fact that the Pacific Northwest is one of Sanders' best regions. But if this was a primary I doubt he would have scored anything more that a low double digits victory. Just look at the discrepancy in Utah between Clinton's 2008 18 point loss and this years 60 point demolition.

[Mehmentum]

Alaska:
Sanders: 65
Clinton: 35

Hawaii:
Sanders: 53
Clinton: 47

Washington:
Sanders: 71
Clinton: 29

[Xing]

First of all, as I've stated many times, exactly ZERO delegates were at stake in the primary in 2008. We really can't put any stock in those results, especially since we're having a caucus again this year, and in case anyone forgot about the contest that actually mattered in 2008, Obama won by 36%. The FL comparison is accurate. Just like FL was a perfect state for Clinton, WA is a perfect state for Sanders. FL Dems didn't dislike Sanders, they just preferred Clinton. Similarly, I'd agree that the electorate as a whole here isn't exactly anti-Clinton (though there are definitely some people who don't like her.) However, this state, particularly the Seattle area, LOVES Sanders. Trust me, I know my home state. Sanders is headed for a big win, and I wouldn't be surprised if he actually does slightly better than Obama.

I know that the 2008 primary was a beauty contest. But even if it wasn't I don't think Obama would've won it with such a wide margin as the caucuses.
Same thing this year. I don't question the fact that the Pacific Northwest is one of Sanders' best regions. But if this was a primary I doubt he would have scored anything more that a low double digits victory. Just look at the discrepancy in Utah between Clinton's 2008 18 point loss and this years 60 point demolition.

Clinton probably would've done a bit better in a primary with delegates at stake here in 2008, but it probably would've still been around 60-40, like Oregon was. In any case, the point is that this is a caucus, and thus I stand by my prediction of a 2-1 Sanders win. He's too far behind for it to matter much, but tomorrow could be Sanders' best day of the campaign.

[Ogre Mage]

First of all, as I've stated many times, exactly ZERO delegates were at stake in the primary in 2008. We really can't put any stock in those results, especially since we're having a caucus again this year, and in case anyone forgot about the contest that actually mattered in 2008, Obama won by 36%. The FL comparison is accurate. Just like FL was a perfect state for Clinton, WA is a perfect state for Sanders. FL Dems didn't dislike Sanders, they just preferred Clinton. Similarly, I'd agree that the electorate as a whole here isn't exactly anti-Clinton (though there are definitely some people who don't like her.) However, this state, particularly the Seattle area, LOVES Sanders. Trust me, I know my home state. Sanders is headed for a big win, and I wouldn't be surprised if he actually does slightly better than Obama.

I know that the 2008 primary was a beauty contest. But even if it wasn't I don't think Obama would've won it with such a wide margin as the caucuses.
Same thing this year. I don't question the fact that the Pacific Northwest is one of Sanders' best regions. But if this was a primary I doubt he would have scored anything more that a low double digits victory. Just look at the discrepancy in Utah between Clinton's 2008 18 point loss and this years 60 point demolition.

Clinton probably would've done a bit better in a primary with delegates at stake here in 2008, but it probably would've still been around 60-40, like Oregon was. In any case, the point is that this is a caucus, and thus I stand by my prediction of a 2-1 Sanders win. He's too far behind for it to matter much, but tomorrow could be Sanders' best day of the campaign.

Another issue besides the fact Washington State is a caucus is that it is an open caucus.  Independents can participate and Sanders has crushed Clinton among independent voters time after time.  If the vote was closed and only registered Democrats could participate she would have a better chance.  I too predict a wide Sanders win in Washington State.

[The Other Castro]

This probably doesn't count for much, but Google Trends is showing a huge surge for Sanders in Washington.

[Crumpets]

Alaska: Clinton 31, Sanders 69, Other 0
Hawaii: Clinton 49, Sanders 50, Other 1
Washington: Clinton 32, Sanders 67, Other 1

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Alaska - Clinton 36; Sanders 61; Other 3
Hawaii - Clinton 50; Sanders 48; Other 2
Washington - Clinton 32; Sanders 66; Other 1

[/]

Alaska - Clinton 25; Sanders 72; Other 3
Hawaii - Clinton 45; Sanders 53; Other 2
Washington - Clinton 33; Sanders 66; Other 1

[Senator-elect Spark]

Alaska - Clinton 27; Sanders 73
Hawaii - Clinton 42; Sanders 57
Washington - Clinton 24; Sanders 75

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Alaska: Sanders 65, Clinton 35
Hawaii: Sanders 45, Clinton 55
Washington: Sanders 68, Clinton 32

[DanPrazeres]

Alaska - 25 Clinton ; 74 Sanders ; 1 Other
Hawaii - 42 Clinton ; 58 Sanders ; Other
Washington - 27 Clinton ; Sanders 73 ; Other

[Shadows]

I was too negative I guess, based on the last 1-2 days & the absolute crashing high level of Google Trends which only was more skewed in Vermont, I am revising my prediction -

Alaska - Clinton 26; Sanders 73; Other 1
Hawaii - Clinton 43; Sanders 56; Other 1
Washington - Clinton 30; Sanders 69; Other 1

If the Absentee ballots are not as skewed as it generally is & we have a high turnout, then Sanders will crack 70% even in Washington! I think he got 30,000 people in today's rally!

[Matty]

What time will results come in for the mainland contests?

[MisterElection2001]

I am predicting a Sanders clean sweep on Saturday.
In order from first to last...
Alaska - Sanders, Clinton, Uncommited, Other
Hawaii - Sanders, Clinton, Other, Uncommited
Washington - Sanders, Clinton, Other, Uncommited

[dax00]

This probably doesn't count for much, but Google Trends is showing a huge surge for Sanders in Washington.

Google Trends is probably the best indicator. A candidate's showing on Google Trends has been shown to be greatly correlated to the actual vote, as was the case for the Republican Iowa caucuses.

Prediction as per Google Trends:
Alaska - Bernie 63.5%, Hillary 36.5%; delegates 10-6
Hawaii - Bernie 64.7%, Hillary 35.3%; delegates 16-9
Washington - Bernie 71.8%, Hillary 28.2%; delegates 73-28

[ilikeverin]

Alaska - Clinton 32; Sanders 67; Other 1
Hawaii - Clinton 51; Sanders 48; Other 1
Washington - Clinton 35; Sanders 64; Other 1