Fabius and allies ousted

[Filuwaúrdjan]

French Socialists oust "No" camp

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Isn't Fabius the guy who was expected to challenge Chirac in the last presidential election but narrowly came behind Le Pen?

Super-lame though. Hopefully a splinter party comes or something, since had I lived there I would be a Socialist and would've voted "non"

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Isn't Fabius the guy who was expected to challenge Chirac in the last presidential election but narrowly came behind Le Pen?

No. That was Jospin (pretty much the only pro-oui politician to have come out of this mess looking better than before it started). Fabius was P.M in the '80's and Finance Minister under Jospin a few years back.

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Uh huh. You do realise that the reason why Le Pen came second was due to the left being split?

[Bono]

Isn't Fabius the guy who was expected to challenge Chirac in the last presidential election but narrowly came behind Le Pen?

No. That was Jospin (pretty much the only pro-oui politician to have come out of this mess looking better than before it started). Fabius was P.M in the '80's and Finance Minister under Jospin a few years back.

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Uh huh. You do realise that the reason why Le Pen came second was due to the left being split?

The right was pretty split to:
Chirac, Le Pen, François Bayrou, Alain Madelin, Bruno Mégret, Christine Boutin, and maybe even Jean Saint-Josse.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The right was pretty split to:
Chirac, Le Pen, François Bayrou, Alain Madelin, Bruno Mégret, Christine Boutin, and maybe even Jean Saint-Josse.

Not really; Le Pen and Mégret are a world away from Bayrou and Madelin

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

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Uh huh. You do realise that the reason why Le Pen came second was due to the left being split?

well it's a lousy development either way in this situation since it now means the pro-constitution faction is in control of the Socialists and thus basically every major party. This obviously doesn't reflect the views of the French people.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Also even if the left was split so much, the real disturbing thing about France 2002 is that Le Pen got almost 17% in the first round. Imagine David Duke getting almost 17% in the US or the BNP taking almost 17% of the total vote.

[Bono]

The right was pretty split to:
Chirac, Le Pen, François Bayrou, Alain Madelin, Bruno Mégret, Christine Boutin, and maybe even Jean Saint-Josse.

Not really; Le Pen and Mégret are a world away from Bayrou and Madelin

well, ne would hope Jospin and the Trotskyites were a world away too.

[Umengus]

1) There will be a Socialist congress in november. An occasion for Fabius to take control of the party (with socialist minorities), if he can...

In fact, I think that it's a good thing to Fabius. It gives the image of victime, the image of a party wich reject the vote of the French people. And it's a good position to criticize right and left elites.

2) According to a sofres poll, 35% of voters in 2002 (first and second turns) voted for Le Pen. Hence, lots of people who voted for le Pen at first run didn't vote for him at second turn. Not impossible but difficult to believe.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Oh yes, this is very good news for Fabius... if he plays things right over the next few months

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Hopefully it is good. France clearly does not want the Constitution, therefore the leadership of at least one of the parties should be anti-Constitution.

2) According to a sofres poll, 35% of voters in 2002 (first and second turns) voted for Le Pen. Hence, lots of people who voted for le Pen at first run didn't vote for him at second turn. Not impossible but difficult to believe.

35% is about what  you get when you add the percentage he got in the first round and the second round. What this would mean is that no one who voted for him in one round voted for him in the other, he got an entirely different set of support in each round. I'm not buying it.

[Umengus]

BVA poll

June 3 & 4, 2 samples: 963 people and 754 socialists


1) Has socialist executive board to exclude Laurent Fabius of socialist direction?

-yes: 24%
-no: 71%
-did not say: 5%

2) Popularity of socialists leaders (last poll: oct 04)

-Delanoe (Mayor of paris):
trust: 44% (-8)
don't trust: 49% (+18)
            -socialists: trust: 68% (=)
                              don't trust: 28% (+6)

-Lang:
trust: 43% (-9)
don't trust: 52% (+14)
             -socialists: trust: 68% (-8)
                               don't trust: 31% (+14)

-Jospin:
trust: 35% (-8)
don't trust: 62% (+16)
              -socialists: trust: 62% (-12)
                                don't trust: 37% (+16)

-Strauss-Kahn:
trust: 31% (=)
don't trust: 60% (+15)
               -socialists: trust: 51% (+1)
                                 don't trust: 44% (+13)

-Hollande:
trust: 25% (-7)
don't trust: 70% (+23)
                -socialists: trust: 49% (-10)
                                  don't trust: 49% (+23)

-Fabius:
trust: 23% (-6)
don't trust: 73% (+18)
                 -socialist: trust: 34% (-16)
                                 don't trust: 65% (+25)
 

3) Do you think that a Socialist government will make better on economy and social  than the current government (sample: socialist voters)?

better:44%
worse: 5%
equal: 49%
did not say: 2%

4) Do you wish the return of Lionel Jospin (sample: socialist voters) (last poll: dec 04)?

-yes: 54 (-7)
-no: 43% (+7)
-did not say: 3% (=)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is the fact that no one trusts Fabius really newsworthy?

[Umengus]

Is the fact that no one trusts Fabius really newsworthy?

[Umengus]

Sofres poll

May 30 & 31, 1000

Meth: face to face,...

1) What must be the priority of Government?

-Unemployement: 58% (+3)
-Inflation: 12% (-6)
-Insecurity: 12% (+2)
-Purchasing power: 11% (+1)
-Social peace: 6% (=)

2) On inflation, gov action is...

-effective: 7% (-1)
-not effective: 91% (+2)

3) On unemployement, gov action is...

-effective: 6% (-2)
-not effective: 92% (+2)

4) on future

-Things improve: 7% (-2)
-Things are more badly: 81% (+5)
-no change: 2% (+1)

5) Do you trust in Jacques Chirac to resolve problems in France?

-yes: 24%  (++3 +21) (-8)
-no: 74% (-36 --38) (+8)
-without opinion: 2% (=)

6) Popularity of politicians
 
Do you see these people have a more significiant responsability in the future?

-Right:
Sarkosy: 49% (+1)
De Villepin: 36% (+4)
Alliot Marie: 35% (+3)
Boorlo: 35% (-2)
Bayrou: 31% (+2)
Douste Blazy: 28% (-2)
De Villiers: 22% (+7)
...
Breton: 14% (-7)

-left:
Kouchner: 46% (-2)
Delanoe: 42% (-2)
Lang: 41% (-5)
Royal: 40% (-4)
Strauss Kahn: 37% (+6)
Aubry: 33% (+1)
Besancenot: 30% (+8)
Fabius: 29% (+7)
Hollande: 29 (-2)
Jospin: 29 (-5)
 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

58% say unemployment. Interesting, but not all that suprising. What's the French government actually doing to try to get those numbers down? It's been over 10% for over 20 years IIRC.

[Umengus]

58% say unemployment. Interesting, but not all that suprising. What's the French government actually doing to try to get those numbers down? It's been over 10% for over 20 years IIRC.

Good question... miterrand said: "on unemployement, we have tried all". Left and right are not able to get unemployement down. Today, liberals say that gov must increase flexibility and drop taxation, others say that public jobs must be increased. The next gov will be inspired by the Danish system (Flexibility+Security). But I think that it will be a failure. Problem in France is that consumption is good but not investments of companies. Why: because they sell in France but they produce in China or others countries (Mondialisation: the low cost of transport)

To be honest, in France, unemployement is not at 10% but at 15% ( in UK and others countries too, numbers are not the reality)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Does France use just claiment count? 'cos if they do unemployment is far, far higher than the official stats. Generally speaking you can add a few % to unemployment figures in most countries; there's usually a fair few people on things like incapacity benifit that shouldn't be, that kind of stuff.

As for what actually works... I tend to think that both are wrong; simply creating (or trying to create) lots and lots of public sector jobs won't solve the problem (although it might take some of the pain away in the short term) and neither will going on a merry rampage of Thatcherism (note that as a direct result of Thatchers actions, unemployment, using official stats, surged from about one million to about three million in the first few years of her time in Number 10).
What's needed is deregulation in some areas (especially the labour market) and a hell of a lot of government intervention to create more jobs and some incentives for small business growth.
What's *especially* important is tackling youth unemployment and a programme similer to the New Deal over here (which has reduced youth unemployment by over 1 million since it was introduced) would be a good idea IMO.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'm a little shocked at how extremely unpopular Chirac is. You would rarely have 74% here saying they don't trust someone to fix problems at all.

[Umengus]

Ipsos poll

June 3 & 4, 963

1) What is your opinion on Jacques Chirac like French president?

Very good: 2% (-1)
Good: 25% (-19)
Bad: 40% (+6)
very bad: 29% (+12)
did not say: 4% (+2)

2) What is your opinion on Dominique de Villepin like French PM (last poll: raffarin)?

-very good: 4% (+2)
-good: 29% (+5)
-bad: 19% (-20)
-very bad: 13% (-19)
-did not say: 35% (+32)

3) Popularity of leaders (good, bad, did not say)

-Kouchner: 61%/25%/14%
-Delanoe: 58/29/13
-Sarkozy: 57/40/3
-Alliot Marie: 56/26/18
-Lang: 55/37/8
-Boorlo: 49/26/25
-Royal: 47/39/14
-Strauss-Kahn: 42/43/15
-Bayrou: 42/43/15
-Douste Blazy: 42/46/12
-Aubry: 41/47/12
-De Robien: 40/29/31
-Jospin: 40/54/6
-Besancenot: 38/45/17
-Guigou: 36/41/23
-Buffet: 36/43/21
-Mamère: 36/56/8
-Fabius: 36/56/8
-Hollande: 35/55/11
-Laguiller: 34/56/8
-Chevenement: 32/53/15
-De Villiers: 32/58/10
...
-Juppé: 31/59/10
...
-Le Pen: 16/82/2