Democratic Freak States Holy Saturday results thread (1st caucuses begin @1pmET)

[Crumpets]

I wish I could be there to caucus today! Fortunately I sent in my surrogate form a couple of weeks ago.

[The Free North]

Clinton would need to be held under 15% (of the preference vote?) in order to not win any delegates.

I don't see how that is possible given that Sanders barely managed to do that in VT.

[Lyin' Steve]

My caucus was 3-1 for Bernie.  9% of people were uncommitted for god knows what reason.

I gave a speech for Clinton, but people kept interrupting me to say they couldn't hear even though I was shouting at the top of my lungs.  Oh well, you win some you lose some.

[Shadows]

Clinton would need to be held under 15% (of the preference vote?) in order to not win any delegates.

I don't see how that is possible given that Sanders barely managed to do that in VT.

It has never happened to my mind in recent history between 2 competitive candidates - Not even people in their home states - Obama, Hillary, Bill, McCain, Bush  - No person not in a American Samoa type state has done it RECENTLY - I can't remember.

Vermont was an outlier & huge exception - Probably would not happen in the next 30-40 years among COMPETITIVE candidates

[Mehmentum]

70-30 would give Sanders about 40 more delegates than Clinton.  75-25 would be about 50.

Washington may be Sanders' best state as far as delegate gain goes.

[ElectionsGuy]

Washington is a state that was made for Bernie Sanders. Even if it was a primary, this would probably be one of his best states, but good for him that he's (supposedly) winning by so much. He needs a big delegate lead for today to start to close the gap in pledged delegates.

[Lief 🗽]

Well it helps that caucuses are designed to heavily disenfranchise wide swaths of the electorate. If this were a primary then Clinton would only be losing by 10% or so, I would guess. In 2008 Obama won the WA caucus by nearly 40%, but only won the primary by 6%.

[Tender Branson]

Bernie is on track to bag 180-200 of the 290 delegates at stake in the next 3 weeks and cut Hillary's margin to around 150-200 (1.300 vs. 1.100) by Mid-April.

If it weren't for the stubborn superdelegates and minority voters, it would be a real race ...

[Xing]

My caucus was 3-1 for Bernie.  9% of people were uncommitted for god knows what reason.

I gave a speech for Clinton, but people kept interrupting me to say they couldn't hear even though I was shouting at the top of my lungs.  Oh well, you win some you lose some.

Well, the same was true for me.

[Matty]

caucuses started TWO HOURS ago and no results yet?

Baloney baloney

[/]

Bernie is on track to bag 180-200 of the 290 delegates at stake in the next 3 weeks and cut Hillary's margin to around 150-200 (1.300 vs. 1.100) by Mid-April.

If it weren't for the stubborn superdelegates and minority voters, it would be a real race ...

Ugh, I just can't stand those minorities.

[Xing]

Well it helps that caucuses are designed to heavily disenfranchise wide swaths of the electorate. If this were a primary then Clinton would only be losing by 10% or so, I would guess. In 2008 Obama won the WA caucus by nearly 40%, but only won the primary by 6%.

How many times does it need to be repeated that the primary eight years ago was a beauty contest? Clinton would be doing marginally better in a primary, but it would not have been a single-digit race eight years ago. The result probably would've been similar to what it was in Oregon, almost 60-40.

[Tender Branson]

any official results yet?

No.

[136or142]

Bernie is on track to bag 180-200 of the 290 delegates at stake in the next 3 weeks and cut Hillary's margin to around 150-200 (1.300 vs. 1.100) by Mid-April.

If it weren't for the stubborn superdelegates and minority voters, it would be a real race ...

Except that, as has been mentioned elsewhere, nearly all of Bernie Sanders' win have been in the caucus states and they're over after North Dakota (which itself is a convention and not a caucus.)

With rare exceptions I think Hillary Rodham Clinton will handily win all of the remaining primary states.

Edit: except for the Wyoming caucus on April 9.

[Lief 🗽]

Bernie is on track to bag 180-200 of the 290 delegates at stake in the next 3 weeks and cut Hillary's margin to around 150-200 (1.300 vs. 1.100) by Mid-April.

If it weren't for the stubborn superdelegates and minority voters, it would be a real race ...

Yeah if only the base of the Democratic Party weren't voting in the Democratic Party primaries, Bernie would have a shot!

[The Other Castro]

Record shattering turnout in Anchorage, Alaska. The fire marshal is getting mad.

[Tender Branson]

Record shattering turnout in Anchorage, Alaska. The fire marshal is getting mad.

No caucus ever has record turnout ...

Not even 20% of people are voting in a caucus.

[136or142]

Record shattering turnout in Anchorage, Alaska. The fire marshal is getting mad.

He's mad at being anchored down in Anchorage.

[RI]

Bernie's inched up in my twitter count to 78.8%. At 75.3% in King County. 91 precincts counted.

[Boston Bread]

What are the chances of Bernie getting >70% in WA

[Dr. Arch]

If he can make margins this big in these states + CA + most of the remaining states -MD and NY, then we might be onto something.

[The Other Castro]

What are the chances of Bernie getting >70% in WA

Pretty decent odds at the moment.

[dax00]

14 hours ago, I predicted Bernie would get about 72% in Washington. I see no reason to have my prediction deviate anyhow from 72%.

[Mehmentum]

Pretty good chance it looks like.  I would guess a he would gain 40-60 delegates on Clinton from Washington if those numbers are accurate.

[Shadows]

If he can make margins this big in these states + CA + most of the remaining states -MD and NY, then we might be onto something.

No-way he is making these margins other places. And honestly does not need to either. He needs 60%+ in CA & he will still get 6-7 big wins.

I don't think he can win but theoretically he has to beat her (maybe narrowly - not lose) in NY, PA, NJ, PR, MD which I don't see happening